Post your Super Tuesday predictions here

[Tender Branson]

Romney-states (6)

Ohio: 37% Romney, 33% Santorum, 18% Gingrich, 11% Paul

Massachusetts: 61% Romney, 18% Santorum, 11% Paul, 9% Gingrich

Virginia: 71% Romney, 29% Paul

Vermont: 44% Romney, 22% Santorum, 20% Paul, 13% Gingrich

Idaho: 46% Romney, 25% Santorum, 21% Paul, 8% Gingrich

Alaska: 40% Romney, 27% Paul, 20% Santorum, 13% Gingrich



Santorum-states (3)

Tennessee: 32% Santorum, 30% Romney, 29% Gingrich, 8% Paul

Oklahoma: 38% Santorum, 32% Romney, 23% Gingrich, 6% Paul

North Dakota: 32% Santorum, 31% Romney, 24% Paul, 13% Gingrich



Gingrich-states (1)

Georgia: 48% Gingrich, 24% Romney, 21% Santorum, 6% Paul

[Cory]

^ Basically that, minus Alaska. I have no idea which way that one goes.

[Earthling]

If Romney wins Washington he will have the momentum going in to Super Tuesday, having won 4 primaries in a row. I see him squeezing out a victory in Ohio and if he wins 6 or 7 states on Tuesday the race will be over for the most part.
If Romney wins only four, it will give Santorum enough space to go on until the end.

[J. J.]

If Romney wins Washington he will have the momentum going in to Super Tuesday, having won 4 primaries in a row. I see him squeezing out a victory in Ohio and if he wins 6 or 7 states on Tuesday the race will be over for the most part.
If Romney wins only four, it will give Santorum enough space to go on until the end.

I disagree on several points.

While I expect Mittens to win WA, it won't greatly influence Super Tuesday,

I expect a close race in OH, but Mittens will win more delegates, no matter what.  I think he's going to win in OH.

Our Whack-a-Mole problem may be back.  Santorum has no place to go after Tuesday; Gingrich does, even if Santorum wins OH and TN.

I don't have the numbers, but:

OH - Romney, clean, with a popular vote plurality and the most delegates.
TN - Santorum, with Gingrich close behind.
VA - Romney
MA - Romney
VT - Romney
GA - Gingrich
ID - Romney
OK - Gingrich (and that is a both a guess and a fear)
AK - Gingrich (and that is a both a guess and a fear)
ND - Romney (a guess)

[TomC]

Any guesses as to the percentages of delegates candidates will get? Can Romney get a majority of delegates being distributed Tuesday?

[Joe Biden 2020]

If Romney wins Washington he will have the momentum going in to Super Tuesday, having won 4 primaries in a row. I see him squeezing out a victory in Ohio and if he wins 6 or 7 states on Tuesday the race will be over for the most part.
If Romney wins only four, it will give Santorum enough space to go on until the end.

If he wins Washington today, he's actually won 5 in a row with Maine being the first one.

[Joe Biden 2020]

If Romney wins Washington he will have the momentum going in to Super Tuesday, having won 4 primaries in a row. I see him squeezing out a victory in Ohio and if he wins 6 or 7 states on Tuesday the race will be over for the most part.
If Romney wins only four, it will give Santorum enough space to go on until the end.

I disagree on several points.

While I expect Mittens to win WA, it won't greatly influence Super Tuesday,

I expect a close race in OH, but Mittens will win more delegates, no matter what.  I think he's going to win in OH.

Our Whack-a-Mole problem may be back.  Santorum has no place to go after Tuesday; Gingrich does, even if Santorum wins OH and TN.

I don't have the numbers, but:

OH - Romney, clean, with a popular vote plurality and the most delegates.
TN - Santorum, with Gingrich close behind.
VA - Romney
MA - Romney
VT - Romney
GA - Gingrich
ID - Romney
OK - Gingrich (and that is a both a guess and a fear)
AK - Gingrich (and that is a both a guess and a fear)
ND - Romney (a guess)

Oklahoma, a pretty decent-sized prize on Tuesday, will be smart about it and go for Santorum.  We like Gingrich, but his three marriages and the way he left his first two wives will hurt him here.  We don't believe a marriage contract is equivalent to an automobile lease, where you drive it for several years and then turn it in for a new one.

[Averroës Nix]

Massachusetts (Safe Romney, >60%)
Virginia (Safe Romney, >70%)
Vermont (Safe Roney, >40%)
Idaho (Likely Romney, >40%)

Oklahoma (Likely Santorum, >40%)
Tennessee (Likely Santorum, >30%)
North Dakota (Leans Santorum, >30%)

Georgia (Safe Gingrich, >40%)

Ohio (Toss-up, Romney-Santorum)
Alaska (Toss-up, Romney-Santorum-Paul)

[Earthling]

If Romney wins Washington he will have the momentum going in to Super Tuesday, having won 4 primaries in a row. I see him squeezing out a victory in Ohio and if he wins 6 or 7 states on Tuesday the race will be over for the most part.
If Romney wins only four, it will give Santorum enough space to go on until the end.

If he wins Washington today, he's actually won 5 in a row with Maine being the first one.

True, I even forgot about Maine.

And J.J., if Washington goes to Santorum he will have the upperhand in Ohio in my opinion. The positive media coverage will help hem.
And if he wins Ohio, and Tennessee, he has room to move on. He will not drop out after he wins the biggest price on Super Tuesday. But if he only wins 2 states (and not Ohio) he is done.

[J. J.]

If Romney wins Washington he will have the momentum going in to Super Tuesday, having won 4 primaries in a row. I see him squeezing out a victory in Ohio and if he wins 6 or 7 states on Tuesday the race will be over for the most part.
If Romney wins only four, it will give Santorum enough space to go on until the end.

If he wins Washington today, he's actually won 5 in a row with Maine being the first one.

True, I even forgot about Maine.

And J.J., if Washington goes to Santorum he will have the upperhand in Ohio in my opinion. The positive media coverage will help hem.
And if he wins Ohio, and Tennessee, he has room to move on. He will not drop out after he wins the biggest price on Super Tuesday. But if he only wins 2 states (and not Ohio) he is done.

If it was Thursday, maybe.  Saturday is a bad time to release things, ironically, like Maine.  That's going to limit the media impact, whomever wins.  Further, I doubt if it will be the lead story.  The tornadoes will be.

[Earthling]

Maybe, but he is off course campaigning and the people (at least the Republicans) will be paying attention to the results in Washington. Santorum can claim something of a comeback if he wins. But if Romney wins he will be kind of inevitable again. And that might show on Tuesday.

[Yelnoc]

Well, I copy/pasted the OP and intended to change it all up, but I think you really nailed.  Though I give Paul Alaska do to Chaos Theory.

Romney-states (5)

Massachusetts: 64% Romney, 14% Santorum, 12% Paul, 10% Gingrich

Virginia: 67% Romney, 33% Paul

Vermont: 39% Romney, 31% Paul, 19% Santorum, 10% Gingrich

Idaho: 40% Romney, 26% Paul, 25% Santorum, 9% Gingrich



Santorum-states (4)

Ohio: 37% Santorum, 36% Romney, 15% Gingrich, 12% Paul

Tennessee: 39% Santorum, 33% Gingrich, 20% Romney, 7% Paul

Oklahoma: 42% Santorum, 29% Romney, 23% Gingrich, 6% Paul

North Dakota: 35% Santorum, 30% Romney, 24% Paul, 11% Gingrich



Gingrich-states (1)

Georgia: 42% Gingrich, 26% Romney, 25% Santorum, 6% Paul



Paul-states (1)

Alaska: 32% Paul, 30% Romney, 27% Santorum, 11% Gingrich

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Alaska - 40% Romney, 26% Paul, 23% Santorum, 11% Gingrich
Georgia - 48% Gingrich, 23% Romney, 18% Santorum, 11% Paul
Idaho - 44% Romney, 24% Paul, 20% Santorum, 12% Gingrich
Massachusetts - 66% Romney, 16% Santorum, 10% Paul, 8% Gingrich
North Dakota - 34% Romney, 28% Paul, 25% Santorum, 13% Gingrich
Ohio - 39% Romney, 34% Santorum, 15% Gingrich, 12% Paul
Oklahoma - 40% Santorum, 28% Gingrich, 22% Romney, 10% Paul
Tennessee - 33% Santorum, 31% Romney, 26% Gingrich, 10% Paul
Vermont - 52% Romney, 23% Santorum, 16% Paul, 9% Gingrich
Virginia - 73% Romney, 27% Paul

[NHI]

Not sure on numbers yet.

AK: Romney, Paul, Santorum, Gingrich
GA: Gingrich, Santorum, Romney, Paul
ID: Romney, Santorum, Paul, Gingrich
MA: Romney, Santorum, Paul, Gingrich
ND: (Tossup)
OH: Romney, Santorum, Gingrich, Paul
OK: Santorum, Gingrich, Romney, Paul
TN: Santorum, Gingrich, Romney, Paul
VT: Romney, Paul, Santorum, Gingrich
VA: Romney, Paul

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

OH, AK, ID, VA, VT, MA  Romney
ND, TN, OK Santorum
GA: Gingich

[Torie]

It would not shock me if Mittens wins everything but OK and GA. That one poll just out suggests he may slip into a plurality in TN. TN is now urban enough to just make it possible, if Mittens gets big enough margins in the chic neighborhoods of Memphis, Nashville, Chattanooga, and Knoxville. And the population of those neighborhoods around Nashville has really zoomed up.

[TomC]

Yes, I can see Romney winning TN. Tons of officials have endorsed him. Newt has been hitting the airwaves hard here, pulling votes from Santorum. If you look at past primaries for Corker (06) and HGaslam ('10), we have a history of two quite conservative candidates splitting the vote letting a more moderate win.

[RI]

Santorum wins TN (on early votes mostly), OK, ND, and OH (narrowly). Gingrich wins GA. Alaska goes for Paul, because why not? Romney wins the rest.

[Eraserhead]

Is Santorum actually leading among early voters in TN?

[Tender Branson]

Is Santorum actually leading among early voters in TN?

PPP and ARG say so.

[rbt48]

I think that Ohio will go to Romney, perhaps pushed there by Rush Limbaugh's idiotic tirade.

If his remarks had the same effect on moderate-conservative Republicans as it did on me, this event has to be a negative for Santorum and a plus for Romney.

[bhouston79]

Here's my prediction:

Romney:    Blue
Santorum: Red
Gingrich:    Green

Romney will win the most states, the most votes, the most delegates, and retains his frontrunner statuts; but Santorum eeks out a win in Ohio and the primary continues for the foreseeable future. 

[LastVoter]

Is mittens worst case scenario 4 states? Or is it possible that he loses Vermont or Virginia?

[Stranger in a strange land]

Is mittens worst case scenario 4 states? Or is it possible that he loses Vermont or Virginia?

Santorum and Gingrich aren't on the ballot in VA, so Romney's a lock to win it. I'd give him about a 90% chance of winning VT.

Basically ND, OH, TN, and AK are up for grabs. OK seems pretty solid for Santorum and GA is likewise for Gingrich.

[Psychic Octopus]

Alaska: Who knows?
Georgia: Gingrich
Idaho: Romney
Massachusetts: Romney
North Dakota: Santorum
Ohio: Romney
Oklahoma: Santorum
Tennessee: Santorum
Vermont: Romney
Virginia: Romney