What's the probability that both Gingrich & Santorum are out of race by mid-Apr?

[Mr. Morden]

?

[Obviously, by "out of the race" I'm including scenarios where the candidate says "I'm suspending my campaign" without formally dropping out.  "I'm suspending my campaign" is just a euphemism for dropping out, when you can't quite bring yourself to formally concede.

And my "mid-April", I mean *before* the April 24 primaries.]

[J. J.]

There is a good chance it will be by the end of March.

[Wisconsin+17]

Zero. Newt won't leave until Santorum does.

[Sam Spade]

Santorum isn't leaving until after PA, if he ever leaves.  I guess Newt could leave after the Southern primary run in March, but who knows.

[Wisconsin+17]

Exactly. Newt won't leave before Santorum, and Santorum won't leave until after TX + PA.

[Lincoln Republican]

The sooner the both of them gracefully bow out and support Romney the better it will be for the Republicans for the election.

[Lief 🗽]

The nomination was effectively over on Tuesday when Mitt won Michigan, as I said at the time.

[J. J.]

Santorum isn't leaving until after PA, if he ever leaves.  I guess Newt could leave after the Southern primary run in March, but who knows.

PA only has the chance of humiliating Santorum (again).  The delegates are unpledged.

[Sam Spade]

The nomination was effectively over on Tuesday when Mitt won Michigan, as I said at the time.

I tend to disagree.  It was over after Florida.

[Sam Spade]

Santorum isn't leaving until after PA, if he ever leaves.  I guess Newt could leave after the Southern primary run in March, but who knows.

PA only has the chance of humiliating Santorum (again).  The delegates are unpledged.

Santorum is going to basically get screwed by the establishment with delegates in so many states that it was never worth voting for him in the first place.  Or placing the mantle on him as the anti-Romney at any time.  Maybe it'll give him time to do his favorite pastime, that is whining, but as was said from this poster from the beginning, Santorum can never win the nomination.  The whole delegate issue was one of my bigger "non-polling" points, but I didn't feel like particularly raising it earlier.

It also goes to show you that the only political actors dumber than the GOP establishment are the fundys.  And the Santorum supporters (often one in the same, mind you).

That being said, it might be smarter for Romney to let Santorum win Ohio so that he'll continue to stay in the race when he has had no chance since this thing began.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Hrm? No.

He lost in MI because he split delegates with Santorum, and the GOP had to change their rules. MI went from being safe Romney to a push.

[Paleobrazilian]

With the Texas primary moved back all the way to late May, Gringorum might find it hard to stay in the money race for two long months, and Mitt could seal the deal with the April 24th primaries, even if Santorum wins PA, as Mitt will be heavily favored on the other 4 primaries.

[NHI]

If things go well Tuesday night, then they maybe out by the end of the month.

[pbrower2a]

Gingrich probably drops out soon after Super Tuesday results appear. Santorum can still do reasonably well on Super Tuesday.

[TomC]

Yes, they'll both be out.

[Torie]

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Sam, while you may not have been talking about it, I can think of one poster who talked, and talked, and talked, about it. The whole process is wired to favor Mittens. Proportional states are where Mittens is relatively weak in general, and winner take all, or effectively close it, are usually where Mittens is strong. When I read your post about how OK allocates delegates (which will of course be one of Romney's weakest states), I had to laugh, because the rules there seem like they were written by Mittens himself. Within the percentage vote range Mittens can meet, the OK delegate allocation process makes it almost effectively moot what the popular vote is vis a vis delegates awarded to each candidate.

I also said the MI thing was way over-hyped. Just because the press said its critical, does not make it so. You are right, FL was the single most momentous moment.

You see, just because one might be gay and stoned, does not perforce may make non compis mentis.

[Volrath50]

The nomination was effectively over on Tuesday when Mitt won Michigan, as I said at the time.

Just like it was over when Mitt won NH? And when he won FL followed by NV?

While I expect Mitt to be the nominee, I also expect more bumps in the road. The bumps in the road have happened like clockwork this season.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Possible, but not very likely.  It would require that Gingrich drop out immediately after Super Tuesday, leaving Santorum as the sole anti-Romney standing and then have Romney win one or more of Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, or Missouri.  If Gingrich stays in to muddle the waters, then they'll both hang on in hopes of catching the votes of the other once he drops out.

[memphis]

Very unlikely. They're the only two candidates acceptable to the majority of primary voters. It just so happens that they're both enough of true believers in themselves to stay in through the convention.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I expected Santorum to drop out after Florida, but he didn't. So another spate of losses won't deter him. Plus, after Super Tuesday are some states where he can win (Kansas, Alabama and Mississippi). He'll probably be in at least until Romney collects a majority of delegates.

Gingrich is only still in because of his ego. The only thing he's doing at this point is splitting the anti-Romney vote. Unless he loses Georgia, I expect he'll keep plugging along.

[Sam Spade]

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Sam, while you may not have been talking about it, I can think of one poster who talked, and talked, and talked, about it. The whole process is wired to favor Mittens. Proportional states are where Mittens is relatively weak in general, and winner take all, or effectively close it, are usually where Mittens is strong. When I read your post about how OK allocates delegates (which will of course be one of Romney's weakest states), I had to laugh, because the rules there seem like they were written by Mittens himself. Within the percentage vote range Mittens can meet, the OK delegate allocation process makes it almost effectively moot what the popular vote is vis a vis delegates awarded to each candidate.

I also said the MI thing was way over-hyped. Just because the press said its critical, does not make it so. You are right, FL was the single most momentous moment.

You see, just because one might be gay and stoned, does not perforce may make non compis mentis.

Torie, I enjoy being outlandish and aggressive, but we have no beef on things. 

I knew about the Santorum delegate problem much earlier (which is why I said he had no chance back after Iowa), but about a couple of weeks ago (after Colorado and Minnesota), I actually started looking at the rules of the various primaries/caucuses, and realized that the rules in many of the midwest/Rust Belt states are such that Santorum could win a primary/caucus, and would get f-ed down the line due to the system and the fact that the establishment supports Romney.

It made me come to the potential conclusion that Romney may have purposely ignored CO, MN and MO such that Santorum would win and receive a bounce to become the anti-Romney, knowing full well that Santorum had no chance of winning the nomination because he would get screwed in all of his strong places b/c the establishment was not behind him and the rules allowed Romney to take delegates regardless of primary votes.

I still don't think Newt had a chance after Florida, except for maybe about 1 in 100, but it was an actual chance, unlike Santorum, and it rested on the fact that he had organization/establishment control of the delegates in two of the biggest delegate states - Georgia and Texas, where he could potentially win all of the delegates in both states in a one-on-one matchup.  But it's probably too late on that now, and henceforth why I came up with the above theory.

At any rate, my fire is now directly aimed at KP now, so you don't have to worry, though I will still not vote for Romney. 

[bgwah]

^ I love how Sam can only write these posts after the fact.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Newt was done when he lost in FL, and finished 4th in Michigan. Michigan was the nail in the coffin. He needed a decent showing in FL and got blown out. Then he did ok in Nevada and got blown out everywhere, with Santorum winning all three states, and him fighting Paul for votes.

Since then - Paul has gone on an 18:1 delegate run vs Newt and now leads Newt in delegates, putting Gingrich in 4th.

Newt's just too far behind - isn't getting any delegates whatsoever off Romney and has actually only been relevant once outside of South Carolina- with his 7 percent in MI. That's it.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

^ I love how Sam can only write these posts after the fact.

Sam's sheer brilliance, if unleashed prior to events occurring, would cause everyone on the Atlas to disintegrate like the Nazis at the end of Raiders of the Lost Ark.

[Sam Spade]

^ I love how Sam can only write these posts after the fact.

If I could predict the future accurately, I wouldn't be wasting my time posting around here...