So what would that translate to if adjusted for reality? Maybe Obama ahead by 2-3 points in Virginia and even in Ohio?
Depends what we define as "reality".
If we use the Marist crosstabs and apply them to the 2008 Exit Polls in OH and VA, the results are:
OH (39%D, 31%R, 30%I): 49% Obama, 40% Romney
VA (39%D, 33%R, 28%I): 50% Obama, 40% Romney
But because the crosstabs show that Obama gets a higher Democratic share than Romney gets among his own party and Obama also leads among Independents, the sample could even be R+2 and Obama would still lead ...
It is the moderates, and not the bases, who decide who win most elections. This is especially true with Presidential elections. Alf Landon got 36% of the popular vote in 1936; McGovern got 37% of the popular vote in 1972. In an essentially binary election (unless something freakish like a sudden scandal that discredits someone) the incumbent is going to win a a floor of roughly 40% of the vote (Hoover 1932, Carter 1980) and the challenger is going to have a floor of about 36% of the vote.
The marked partisans have decided between 72% and 76% of the vote before a vote is cast. The other 24% to 28% of the electorate decide it all.
If President Obama were the disaster as partisan hacks on the Right see him, then he would now be losing binary matchups in a bunch of states that he won in 2008.
If he is legitimately up by double-digit margins in Ohio and Virginia, states close to the national average in their voting habits, then President Obama is headed to a landslide re-election. Whether such reflects the effectiveness of the President or the ineptitude of his likely challengers isn't so clear. It is now too late for anyone to enter the race to be the Republican nominee for President and win. If the Republicans have a disordered convention in which a nominee is selected in some proverbial smoke-filled room, then that nominee will have a tough time getting his message across.
Polls are stills in a movie, and not the conclusion. But we already know President Obama very well; we know what he believes; we know how he campaigns; we know from 2008 what sort of campaign apparatus a Republican nominee faces.
