VA-Marist/MSNBC: Obama strongly favored to win

[Tender Branson]

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?

51-39

...

Barack Obama, the Democrat - 52
Mitt Romney, the Republican - 35

Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats - 51
Mitt Romney and Bob McDonnell, the Republicans - 36

Barack Obama, the Democrat - 54
Rick Santorum, the Republican - 32

Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats - 51
Rick Santorum and Bob McDonnell, the Republicans - 34

Barack Obama, the Democrat - 57
Newt Gingrich, the Republican - 31

Barack Obama, the Democrat - 53
Ron Paul, the Republican - 32

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/120304NBCMaristVirginiaMarch2012.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Crosstabs:

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/34-virginia

[Rowan]

Right.

[Tender Branson]

Right.

Yeah, the numbers look a bit weird, but remember that Marist had one of the best sets of polls in 2008:

http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?type=src&source_id=8

[pbrower2a]

In view of Ohio, in a State (Virginia) that has gone for the Democratic nominee for President only twice in the last sixty years...

Ohio and Virginia are different enough that the two Marist polls suggest a national trend to a GOP disaster in November.

[marvelrobbins]

This shows the economy Is recovering and the Republicans are turning Into Disaster.Republicans
talking about social Issues and not economy Is word they know the economy Is Improving.

The strange thing In poll In Virginia Is Obama and Mcdonnell both have 51 percent approvol.
And Mcdonnell does nothing to help Romney as VP candiate.

[JulioMadrid]

Outlier, more than probably. However, polls like this (even if they are too Obama-friendly) indicate that the President will win in November a la 2008.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

This shows the economy Is recovering and the Republicans are turning Into Disaster.

It's impossible to turn into disaster when they already are one.

[marvelrobbins]

well I have always know they are disaster but now more of the public knows that

[Yank2133]

Too Obama friendly, but he is likely up a few points over Romney at this point.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Remind me again why NBC considers robo-polls unreliable.

[memphis]

Lolwut?

[Governor Scott]

Probably junk, but I don't see VA going Republican this year.

[Senator Snowstalker]

What, did they only poll Richmond?

If Virginia is close in November, how does Moneybags Mitt fare in Fairfax? How would Obama, on the flipside, do in SW VA (the Gore/Kerry-->McCain areas)

[crypto-fascist superhero]

It has Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents as 50% of the sample...

[Inks.LWC Supports Chuck Hagel]

Database entry: http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=5120120302008

[pbrower2a]

What, did they only poll Richmond?

If Virginia is close in November, how does Moneybags Mitt fare in Fairfax? How would Obama, on the flipside, do in SW VA (the Gore/Kerry-->McCain areas)

Watch for polls of states demographically similar southwestern Virginia -- Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, and of course West Virginia. We have seen few credible polls from those states in recent months.  Should President Obama be picking up the sorts of voters who went for Bill Clinton in the 1990s but not for him while he holds onto the suburban voters that Republicans used to think his, then he is on the way to at least an Eisenhower-scale landslide.

The gains in Ohio could be among voters of that type -- the Reagan-Clinton Democrats. Who knows?  

[marvelrobbins]

I am still doudtful Obama can pick up any Mccain states besides Arizona and Missouri.Indiana
despite what some thought I think may not be out of reach for Obama again.Romney Is shapping up to be Dole 2 or The Republican Dukakis.If Obama has a good night on Election Day I could
Imagne a 55 to 45 In Popular vote.There was one poll that Obama lossing Tennessee by 7 to Romney and not the double digets he did to Mccain.Under right sceniro I could see him Competive
In Georgia and Montana.He got 47 percent of the vote last time In both states.That Is best
showing for a Democrat since Bill Clinton In 1992.

Marist had good track record In 2008,and Mcdonnell has a 51 percent approl In this poll.The same
as Obama.This means you can't dismiss It as a Democratic leaning poll.

[Ben Romney]

 Here are the Party ID crosstabs:

State Dem Rep

Ohio 50% 37%

VA 50% 35%

Now if this is not agenda polling,then I do not know what that is!!!

[Secretary Polnut]

Here are the Party ID crosstabs:

State Dem Rep

Ohio 50% 37%

VA 50% 35%

Now if this is not agenda polling,then I do not know what that is!!!

You needed to post in both threads?

Anyway, I believe Obama is probably just ahead in VA and OH right now, neither of these states will be double-digit blowouts in November. The party IDs in the crosstabs are laughable.

[Kevin]

This results can't be correct. Both Ras and PPP had number's out like a week ago showing the Pres only barely leading or tieing the Pubbies. It also doesn't mesh with what I've seen on the ground here for the past year or so.

[Kevin]

What, did they only poll Richmond?

If Virginia is close in November, how does Moneybags Mitt fare in Fairfax? How would Obama, on the flipside, do in SW VA (the Gore/Kerry-->McCain areas)

Watch for polls of states demographically similar southwestern Virginia -- Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, and of course West Virginia. We have seen few credible polls from those states in recent months.  Should President Obama be picking up the sorts of voters who went for Bill Clinton in the 1990s but not for him while he holds onto the suburban voters that Republicans used to think his, then he is on the way to at least an Eisenhower-scale landslide.

The gains in Ohio could be among voters of that type -- the Reagan-Clinton Democrats. Who knows?  

Lol!

[I left.]

This results can't be correct. Both Ras and PPP had number's out like a week ago showing the Pres only barely leading or tieing the Pubbies. It also doesn't mesh with what I've seen on the ground here for the past year or so.

I seem to remember you as the person who was talking about "Democratic hacks" not believing polls that were unfavorable to their interests. Amusing.

[pbrower2a]

What, did they only poll Richmond?

If Virginia is close in November, how does Moneybags Mitt fare in Fairfax? How would Obama, on the flipside, do in SW VA (the Gore/Kerry-->McCain areas)

Watch for polls of states demographically similar southwestern Virginia -- Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, and of course West Virginia. We have seen few credible polls from those states in recent months.  Should President Obama be picking up the sorts of voters who went for Bill Clinton in the 1990s but not for him while he holds onto the suburban voters that Republicans used to think his, then he is on the way to at least an Eisenhower-scale landslide.

The gains in Ohio could be among voters of that type -- the Reagan-Clinton Democrats. Who knows?  

Lol!

That is an easily testable hypothesis.

[asexual trans victimologist]

Kevin, what part of Virginia do you live in?