VA-Marist/MSNBC: Obama strongly favored to win

[Tender Branson]

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?

51-39

...

Barack Obama, the Democrat - 52
Mitt Romney, the Republican - 35

Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats - 51
Mitt Romney and Bob McDonnell, the Republicans - 36

Barack Obama, the Democrat - 54
Rick Santorum, the Republican - 32

Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats - 51
Rick Santorum and Bob McDonnell, the Republicans - 34

Barack Obama, the Democrat - 57
Newt Gingrich, the Republican - 31

Barack Obama, the Democrat - 53
Ron Paul, the Republican - 32

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/120304NBCMaristVirginiaMarch2012.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Crosstabs:

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/34-virginia

[Tender Branson]

Right.

Yeah, the numbers look a bit weird, but remember that Marist had one of the best sets of polls in 2008:

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?type=src&source_id=8

[Tender Branson]

So what would that translate to if adjusted for reality?  Maybe Obama ahead by 2-3 points in Virginia and even in Ohio?

Depends what we define as "reality".

If we use the Marist crosstabs and apply them to the 2008 Exit Polls in OH and VA, the results are:

OH (39%D, 31%R, 30%I): 49% Obama, 40% Romney

VA (39%D, 33%R, 28%I): 50% Obama, 40% Romney

But because the crosstabs show that Obama gets a higher Democratic share than Romney gets among his own party and Obama also leads among Independents, the sample could even be R+2 and Obama would still lead ...