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Author Topic: OH-Marist/MSNBC: Obama in a strong position  (Read 926 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: March 04, 2012, 09:18:40 am »

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?

45-45

...

Barack Obama, the Democrat - 50
Mitt Romney, the Republican - 38

Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats - 49
Mitt Romney and Rob Portman, the Republicans - 38

Barack Obama, the Democrat - 50
Rick Santorum, the Republican - 36

Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats - 51
Rick Santorum and Rob Portman, the Republicans - 37

Barack Obama, the Democrat - 51
Newt Gingrich, the Republican - 36

Barack Obama, the Democrat - 48
Ron Paul, the Republican - 38

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/120304NBCMaristOhioMarch2012.pdf
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: March 04, 2012, 09:32:05 am »

Crosstabs:

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/34-ohio
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2 on: March 04, 2012, 09:38:49 am »

Interesting stuff:

Quote

Key points:

Looking at independent voters, Paul — 45% — leads Obama — 37%.  Obama leads his other potential Republican challengers among these voters.

Ohio voters are more likely to identify as independents than they were in a similar poll conducted in October 2008.  35% of registered voters now consider themselves to be independent compared with 31% at that time.  Republican identification has decreased from 31% to 26%, and Democrats are little changed.  They went from 37% in 2008 to 38% now.

“President Obama’s advantage over his potential challengers in Ohio is underscored by the fact that more voters support him over the GOP field than approve of his job performance,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

Well done Mr. Kasich and 2012 Republicans ... Wink
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3 on: March 04, 2012, 10:00:38 am »
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Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?

45-45

...

Barack Obama, the Democrat - 50
Mitt Romney, the Republican - 38

Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats - 49
Mitt Romney and Rob Portman, the Republicans - 38

Barack Obama, the Democrat - 50
Rick Santorum, the Republican - 36

Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats - 51
Rick Santorum and Rob Portman, the Republicans - 37

Barack Obama, the Democrat - 51
Newt Gingrich, the Republican - 36

Barack Obama, the Democrat - 48
Ron Paul, the Republican - 38

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/120304NBCMaristOhioMarch2012.pdf

Either President Obama is taking off as a superb President or a slick campaigner, the Republicans have so bungled Ohio that they have turned it into a new Massachusetts or Minnesota,  or the surviving Republican opponents seeking his job are collapsing simultaneously. Outlier? Obama has led Republicans by more than the margin of error in Ohio in several polls. Should this show a collapse of GOP credibility in Ohio alone, then things get bleak for Republicans in Ohio in November. 

The only residual question is whether Ohio is a special case and no longer a legitimate swing state in national politics. If Ohio isn't a legitimate swing state, then what state takes its place? GOP victories in Ohio in 2010 may prove Pyrrhic victories. 
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marvelrobbins
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« Reply #4 on: March 04, 2012, 11:18:04 am »
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Here Is problem for Republicans.Obama Is liked more personaly than his approvol ratings.Romney Isn't liked personally.In Ohio Voters are split on Obama's approvol yet Obama
Is getting majority In combination of her personal rating,Romney's unpopularty,and how
Republicans have been governing since January 2011.

Kasich Is Obama's best friend In Ohio.They should run fliers with Romney/kasich.
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #5 on: March 04, 2012, 12:26:17 pm »
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Quote
Ohio voters are more likely to identify as independents than they were in a similar poll conducted in October 2008.  35% of registered voters now consider themselves to be independent compared with 31% at that time.  Republican identification has decreased from 31% to 26%, and Democrats are little changed.  They went from 37% in 2008 to 38% now.

Kasich = Taft ?? People in Ohio begin to be ashamed of having voted republicna in 2010?
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« Reply #6 on: March 04, 2012, 12:29:55 pm »
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Encouraging, but i'll believe it when I see it.
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« Reply #7 on: March 04, 2012, 01:21:31 pm »
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Obama isn't leading by that much. Sorry, Marist.
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #8 on: March 04, 2012, 02:10:34 pm »
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I am an Obama supporter and even I call bullsh**t.  I expect Obama to win Ohio but by double digits? Don't think so.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #9 on: March 04, 2012, 02:26:02 pm »
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Obama isn't leading by that much. Sorry, Marist.

Trust me. He is.
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« Reply #10 on: March 04, 2012, 02:58:32 pm »
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Database entry: http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3920120302008
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Ben Romney
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« Reply #11 on: March 04, 2012, 06:17:05 pm »
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 Here are the Party ID crosstabs:

State Dem Rep

Ohio 50% 37%

VA 50% 35%

Now if this is not agenda polling,then I do not know what that is!!!
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« Reply #12 on: March 04, 2012, 07:00:41 pm »
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I don't believe these margins either (has anyone said they do?), but I sure wouldn't want to be in the Romney campaign right now. This is how it felt 12 years ago when poll after poll showed Bush blowing Gore out of the water in every remotely competitive state well before the election.
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« Reply #13 on: March 04, 2012, 07:18:53 pm »
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The President's number seems very possible, as he got 51% last time around and if you assume most of what is left over is part of the Republican share, it really just shows a margin equal to last time.
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« Reply #14 on: March 05, 2012, 11:29:27 am »
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I think the telling number here is that independents in Ohio disapprove of Obama's performance as president, (36% approve-50% disapprove), yet they vote for him 43-39 over Romney.
In other words, there's certainly room for someone to win Ohio by running against Obama, but Romney isn't (yet) doing a very good job of being that person.
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« Reply #15 on: March 05, 2012, 11:31:31 am »
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I think the telling number here is that independents in Ohio disapprove of Obama's performance as president, (36% approve-50% disapprove), yet they vote for him 43-39 over Romney.
In other words, there's certainly room for someone to win Ohio by running against Obama, but Romney isn't (yet) doing a very good job of being that person.

We need to just face the truth: The Republicans just aren't presidential material anymore.
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« Reply #16 on: March 05, 2012, 11:43:20 am »
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I think the telling number here is that independents in Ohio disapprove of Obama's performance as president, (36% approve-50% disapprove), yet they vote for him 43-39 over Romney.
In other words, there's certainly room for someone to win Ohio by running against Obama, but Romney isn't (yet) doing a very good job of being that person.

We need to just face the truth: The Republicans just aren't presidential material anymore.

So tell me: How much will Obama win Kentucky by? 10 points? Maybe 20? (And will the Republicans steal the election if that were to happen?)
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #17 on: March 05, 2012, 11:44:12 am »
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So tell me: How much will Obama win Kentucky by? 10 points? Maybe 20?

From what I see on the ground, it's more like 50.
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« Reply #18 on: March 05, 2012, 11:45:59 am »
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So tell me: How much will Obama win Kentucky by? 10 points? Maybe 20?

From what I see on the ground, it's more like 50.

50? Wow. Either the electorate has had a massive change of heart or the Republicans are really good at falsifying results in your state.
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« Reply #19 on: March 05, 2012, 11:47:19 am »
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50? Wow. Either the electorate has had a massive change of heart or the Republicans are really good at falsifying results in your state.

Gee, I wonder.
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« Reply #20 on: March 05, 2012, 03:12:21 pm »
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This same poll has Brown with a believable 10-point lead over Mandel.

Is Romney carpet-bombing the airwaves in Ohio? That could account for depressed numbers for the presidential race.
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