Super Tuesday county maps

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So who's making some? I guess I'll have my work cut out tomorrow.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

OK here's Ohio. Obviously this is ignoring that whole mess of him not having delegates in some places:

[Erc]

OK here's Ohio. Obviously this is ignoring that whole mess of him not having delegates in some places:

[image]

He's still on the ballot for At-Large delegates at all polling locations in the state---and it is the ballot total for that vote which will presumably be the most reported (and which will feature on Dave's maps in the end).

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Well of course.

Based on that Romney should win OH-01, OH-03, OH-07, OH-09, OH-10, OH-11, OH-12, OH-13 and OH-14. Santorum wins OH-02, OH-06 and OH-08. OH-04, OH-05, OH-15 and OH-16 are tossups. Make me guess and I'd say they vote Romney, Santorum, Santorum and Romney. So Romney wins 9 districts to Santorum's 5, but no clue how many of those winning ones won't give Santorum delegates.

I'm also going to do Tennessee. None of the other states seem very predictable or interesting (besides Georgia, but that'd be a mess of all the counties and because I'm not sure where exactly Gingrich's suppose base is in the state.)

[Adam Griffin]

I'm also going to do Tennessee. None of the other states seem very predictable or interesting (besides Georgia, but that'd be a mess of all the counties and because I'm not sure where exactly Gingrich's suppose base is in the state.)

It's a mess, but here's a rough outline of what I'm thinking. I could be wrong, but I don't think Santorum will carry more than a couple of rogue counties with maybe 28-30% of the vote. I haven't even seen a Santorum ad here.



Newt's old congressional base is centered due north of Atlanta (Bartow, Cherokee, Forsyth), but he'll probably do better in some of the more conservative areas to the north and west of it, as well as in the southeastern interior.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Nice map! I was kind of thinking along those general guidelines but pinning down the Santorum areas is hard.

But here's Tennessee:

[Adam Griffin]

Nice map! I was kind of thinking along those general guidelines but pinning down the Santorum areas is hard.

But here's Tennessee:

Nice one. I'm actually rethinking mine some and it would line up more with how yours looks when connecting the borders; Santorum has been in my area (NW Georgia) several times and the area is very, very conservative. There's some anti-Newt attitude here, but it's kinda prevalent throughout the whole state so I don't know if it's an abnormally high amount of sentiment or not. There's also a complete domination of Newt in the Chattanooga media market, so who knows.

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

What's the color key people are using like the TN one above? 

[Bacon King]

What's the color key people are using like the TN one above? 

Green: Romney
Blue: Gingrich
Orange: Santorum
Purple or Yellow?: Paul

[Bacon King]

My best effort at a Georgia map.

[tpfkaw]

My best effort at a Georgia map.

Santorum will win at least one county.

[Bacon King]

My best effort at a Georgia map.

Santorum will win at least one county.

I'm not so sure about that. Even if he wins around 20% of the vote his results could easily be diffuse enough that he doesn't win any counties.

If he does win counties, though, expect them to be up in the northwest of the state (probably the only part of the state that's getting any Santorum ads right now, from the Chattanooga media market), or maybe a small rural county near the black belt (something like Schley, Glascock, or Clay comes to mind).

[Torie]

Nice map! I was kind of thinking along those general guidelines but pinning down the Santorum areas is hard.

But here's Tennessee:

Per something I read out there somewhere, Knoxville should be Romney country. But I have no personal opinion, and there is no regional polling, which is a pity, because Tennessee is famous for being a regional state.

[TJ in Oregon]

OK here's Ohio. Obviously this is ignoring that whole mess of him not having delegates in some places:

Not bad, but I think you've got the inland NW the wrong color. There's absolutely no way Romney wins Putnam County (and probably not the others around it either). Also, Mahoning and Trumbull should be the same color, though I'm not sure what color that will be.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Clearly Newt will win his home state of Georgia by a landslide margin.

Or so a source that is, frankly, quite reliable has told me.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Expect Romney to trounce the opposition in the southeast to the point where he wins counties with around 100% of the vote (there is a 15% cutoff for candidates, after which votes can transfer). In most southeastern counties, non-Mormons are either Democrats or inactive with the party. Example: Bannock County (Pocatello and ISU) is 47% Mormon but is a Democratic "stronghold". Non-Mormons there vote overwhelmingly for Democrats. It will be a demoralizing bloodbath for the anti-Romneys anywhere east of Twin Falls and turnout will be insane. I'll post some predictions on counties/regions worth talking about.

Blaine County: I expect a Romney landslide via disporportinate Mormon membership in the GOP there (up to 30%) and wealthy residents of Ketchum but Paul will come in a strong second.
Twin Falls: Romney will win over 50%, with Santorum and Paul vying for second. Mormons don't completely dominate the GOP.
Ada County/Canyon County: Romney will come close to 50% in the Boise metro area, regardless of the Mormon percentage, that on paper, is fairly low (higher during elections in Canyon because of the high Hispanic population that does not participate in elections). Wealthy and lower middle class Republicans who aren't wealthy in Meridian and Eagle will still tend to support Romney if they are non-Mormon. Romney may have some difficulties in Nampa and Caldwell, which are more downscale and contain many evangelicals. Santorum will come in second in Canyon but Paul will come in second in Ada.
Elmore County: Mountain Home is "trailer trash" and non-Mormon. Santorum could squeak out a win.
Central Idaho: It's hard to know what to expect here. Mormons are still a very significant part of the electorate but the GOP is notoriously extreme in these locales. Romney could conceivably come in third in a few counties like Adams, Valley and Idaho (especially Idaho).
Idaho working class belt(Lewiston, Clearwater County, Shoshone County): yet again, it's hard to know what to expect. Voters here are not as actively Republican as you'd expect and in Lewiston they're not as ridiculous/are more traditional country club types. Still: I expect Romney to come in third or at the very least do poorly here. Paul will win Shoshone and Clearwater. He may come close in Nez Pearce. Santorum may come in second in either of these counties.  Conceivably, he could win but I'd place my bets on a Paul victory. Benewah County will also probably be won by Paul or Santorum (definitely not Romney).
Latah County: most likely Paul country, I expect a 40%+ win from him there. Romney will come in second and has a small chance of pulling off a win. Devil's advocate: mormons may be up to 20% of the electorate and college towns tend to have wealthier neighborhoods home to professors and professionals who actually turnout.
Kootenai County: results here will likely mirror what happened in Spokane. It will be a tight threeway race. All three candidates have significant advantages that they didn't have in Spokane: Paul has an active base and the tea party here is even more supportive of him here than in Spokane, Santorum has a larger active evangelical/social conservative base, Romney has more Mormons and institutional support. I'm placing my bets on a small Paul win.

[Lief 🗽]

What percentage do you think he'll get in Idaho overall? >50%? >60%?

Frankly the multiple rounds of voting make it pretty difficult to predict, but I suspect most Gingrich/Santorum voters will go to Romney before Paul.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

What percentage do you think he'll get in Idaho overall? >50%? >60%?

Frankly the multiple rounds of voting make it pretty difficult to predict, but I suspect most Gingrich/Santorum voters will go to Romney before Paul.

In the mid-50s to high 50s.

Santorum will finish above 15% in most of the non-Mormonland portions of the state and Gingrich votes will flow towards him. There will be very few places where it's only a Romney-Paul battle.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I guess I know my state pretty well...

[Adam Griffin]

I guess I know my state pretty well...

I wish I could say the same:

[Bacon King]

I guess I know my state pretty well...

I wish I could say the same:

We both overestimated Romney's support a bit, yeah, but considering we had 159 counties to predict I'd say we did fairly well

[Adam Griffin]

I guess I know my state pretty well...

I wish I could say the same:

We both overestimated Romney's support a bit, yeah, but considering we had 159 counties to predict I'd say we did fairly well

There's definitely a lot of little microcosms here, but I think the Santorum/Gingrich split caused some unpredictable outcomes. Yeah, geez, I really was still expecting Romney to crack 27-28%. I guess we can at least be grateful that we don't have to deal with coloring Texas!