The Super Tuesday Results Thread
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useful idiot
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« Reply #375 on: March 06, 2012, 10:19:31 PM »

If it stays the way it is, Rick Santorum will "win" Ohio, but Mitt Romney will come out with the victory.  Rick's delegate fumble will come back to bite him in the butt.

Delegates are nice, but a win is a win when you have Kansas, Alabama, and Mississippi coming up within the next week. What's always been key for him has been getting enough of a boost to overcome the number of Gingrich voters that are going to show up in these primaries. If he can bag those three states it'll make up for it and make Illinois an interesting showdown.
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BushOklahoma
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« Reply #376 on: March 06, 2012, 10:20:09 PM »

If it stays the way it is, Rick Santorum will "win" Ohio, but Mitt Romney will come out with the victory.  Rick's delegate fumble will come back to bite him in the butt.

If the headline is "SANTORUM WINS OH" it won't matter.

I agree with you to a point because of the average voter, but delegates are what will win the nomination and, if I'm correct, other than Illinois on March 20, there are no more real big prizes until New York and Pennsylvania vote on April 24.  The momentum from March 6 will be long forgotten by April 24, and will likely be diminished by March 20.
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ag
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« Reply #377 on: March 06, 2012, 10:20:43 PM »

15,002 vote margin Smiley)

that's not yet it, but starting to get close.
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Torie
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« Reply #378 on: March 06, 2012, 10:21:59 PM »

Let me clarify remarks made about 10 minutes ago.  Probably somewhere around a 2-1 shot Santorum wins Ohio.  Really am not seeing where the votes come from to help Romney overcome the margin.

Really? I very much respect your political insight. But why wouldn't Cuyahoga and Hamilton propel him over the top?

If taken alone, yes, they might.  But we don't know where the precincts are that are reporting, and generally in Cleveland, the inner precincts with no votes report last.

That appears to be true in Dayton, Columbus and Cleveland as well. Maybe Columbus and Cleveland are not that variegated, but Dayton (Montgomery County) might be. And it has a fairly low percentage of precincts reporting. Still, if I had to guess, the odds of Santorum getting more votes in the end is probably around 60% now. The "problem" is that the GOP electorate is just that variegated. It's not like a Pub versus a Dem contest - at all.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #379 on: March 06, 2012, 10:22:17 PM »

Frothy isn't winning the nomination anyway, so the delegates really don't matter if he wins. The importance of Ohio is going to the narrative about Romney and how he can't win mid-west states(MI doesn't count.)
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argentarius
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« Reply #380 on: March 06, 2012, 10:22:37 PM »

The big thing Ohio does in terms of momentum is it sets the candidate up to win Illinois. I think Santorum is now firmly in that position, and until April 24th (that's the NE vote day right?) Romney could find it very tough going.
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useful idiot
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« Reply #381 on: March 06, 2012, 10:23:33 PM »

If it stays the way it is, Rick Santorum will "win" Ohio, but Mitt Romney will come out with the victory.  Rick's delegate fumble will come back to bite him in the butt.

If the headline is "SANTORUM WINS OH" it won't matter.

I agree with you to a point because of the average voter, but delegates are what will win the nomination and, if I'm correct, other than Illinois on March 20, there are no more real big prizes until New York and Pennsylvania vote on April 24.  The momentum from March 6 will be long forgotten by April 24, and will likely be diminished by March 20.

MS, AL, and KS collectively are worth 130 delegates
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Franzl
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« Reply #382 on: March 06, 2012, 10:23:57 PM »


Of course you do. Ron Paul didn't win.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #383 on: March 06, 2012, 10:24:25 PM »

Is there any chance of Mittens pulling it out? Silver thinks Santorum will win by 1-2 if current trends continue.
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« Reply #384 on: March 06, 2012, 10:24:40 PM »

If it stays the way it is, Rick Santorum will "win" Ohio, but Mitt Romney will come out with the victory.  Rick's delegate fumble will come back to bite him in the butt.

If the headline is "SANTORUM WINS OH" it won't matter.

I agree with you to a point because of the average voter, but delegates are what will win the nomination and, if I'm correct, other than Illinois on March 20, there are no more real big prizes until New York and Pennsylvania vote on April 24.  The momentum from March 6 will be long forgotten by April 24, and will likely be diminished by March 20.

MS, AL, and KS collectively are worth 120 delegates

I'm talking about individual prizes, not collective.
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Thomas D
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« Reply #385 on: March 06, 2012, 10:24:49 PM »

15,200 vote margin.
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useful idiot
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« Reply #386 on: March 06, 2012, 10:26:03 PM »

If it stays the way it is, Rick Santorum will "win" Ohio, but Mitt Romney will come out with the victory.  Rick's delegate fumble will come back to bite him in the butt.

If the headline is "SANTORUM WINS OH" it won't matter.

I agree with you to a point because of the average voter, but delegates are what will win the nomination and, if I'm correct, other than Illinois on March 20, there are no more real big prizes until New York and Pennsylvania vote on April 24.  The momentum from March 6 will be long forgotten by April 24, and will likely be diminished by March 20.

MS, AL, and KS collectively are worth 120 delegates

I'm talking about individual prizes, not collective.

Does it matter if it's individual or collective? Winning OH makes those states much easier for him to win, period.
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ag
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« Reply #387 on: March 06, 2012, 10:26:08 PM »

There is, indeed, a chance Romney will pull through, but it is getting smaller with each minute.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #388 on: March 06, 2012, 10:27:56 PM »

Unrelated to Ohio... Santorum killed it in TN tonight... he's definately got a shot at winning Alabama/Mississippi.
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ag
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« Reply #389 on: March 06, 2012, 10:28:23 PM »

Lucas County (Toledo) has just reported about a quarter of its precincts (went from 30% to 55%) and it switched from Romney to Santorum!
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #390 on: March 06, 2012, 10:29:48 PM »

Let me clarify remarks made about 10 minutes ago.  Probably somewhere around a 2-1 shot Santorum wins Ohio.  Really am not seeing where the votes come from to help Romney overcome the margin.

Really? I very much respect your political insight. But why wouldn't Cuyahoga and Hamilton propel him over the top?

If taken alone, yes, they might.  But we don't know where the precincts are that are reporting, and generally in Cleveland, the inner precincts with no votes report last.

That appears to be true in Dayton, Columbus and Cleveland as well. Maybe Columbus and Cleveland are not that variegated, but Dayton (Montgomery County) might be. And it has a fairly low percentage of precincts reporting. Still, if I had to guess, the odds of Santorum getting more votes in the end is probably around 60% now. The "problem" is that the GOP electorate is just that variegated. It's not like a Pub versus a Dem contest - at all.

True, but this primary has more to do with class/income than other things, so maybe variegated in a different way.

Remember that I said intangibles were all on Rick's side in Ohio (as opposed to Michigan, where they were all against him).  For some reason, Ohio is just poorer and more Republican than it polls.  Has been since rocks cooled (to use a Torieism).  I remembered that from 2008 Dem primary, which is to say that things are not "that" different.
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ag
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« Reply #391 on: March 06, 2012, 10:31:57 PM »

Ther margin has gone done to just over 12,000 - not clear what reported yet.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #392 on: March 06, 2012, 10:32:26 PM »

Surprisingly, Romney is closer to Santorum in OK than in TN.
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Torie
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« Reply #393 on: March 06, 2012, 10:33:17 PM »
« Edited: March 06, 2012, 10:35:10 PM by Torie »

CNN read live another slug of votes from Hamilton, and it slashed Rick's margin down to 9K votes. It then "visited" some other Mittens counties, and it looks about dead even, if elsewhere, what come before matches what comes next. The key may be Clemont, where Rick has a slight lead, with 1% of the vote in.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #394 on: March 06, 2012, 10:33:23 PM »

In other news, Idaho is going huge for Romney (70+), Paul a very distant 2nd.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #395 on: March 06, 2012, 10:34:54 PM »

Mitt's closing in, but I'm not sure it'll be enough. Sad
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argentarius
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« Reply #396 on: March 06, 2012, 10:35:41 PM »

In other news, Idaho is going huge for Romney (70+), Paul a very distant 2nd.
I'm guessing that's because the SE is very mormon.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #397 on: March 06, 2012, 10:35:53 PM »

That slug of Hamilton was extremely favorable - Romney won it by about 6,000.
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Torie
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« Reply #398 on: March 06, 2012, 10:36:20 PM »

Mitt's closing in, but I'm not sure it'll be enough. Sad

I really think it comes down to Clemont. If it goes Rick, Rick wins - if what came before per county replicates what remains.
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ag
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« Reply #399 on: March 06, 2012, 10:36:30 PM »

Hamilton (Cincinnati) has reported a lot (it now matches the state average of 78%). Santorum advantage down to 7,000
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