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Author Topic: The Super Tuesday Results Thread  (Read 11315 times)
Eraserhead
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« Reply #25 on: March 06, 2012, 12:35:54 pm »
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Live feeds for CNN, MSNBC, Faux News, etc.

http://www.epctv.com/channels/CNN-Online-Watch-4758.htm
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« Reply #26 on: March 06, 2012, 12:53:25 pm »
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I'm off, taking a nap for 6 hours.

It's gonna be a long night again for us Europeans, from 1am here to 5 or 6am in the morning ... Wink
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« Reply #27 on: March 06, 2012, 03:01:54 pm »

I won't be online at the time, but remember that the exit polling organization shares their data with the networks at 5pm Eastern.  (Any supposed exit poll leaks before that are certainly fake.)  At about 5:20 or 5:25pm Eastern or so, we'll probably start to get AP stories about early exit data, with useless stuff like what % of voters thought the economy was the top issue or something.  Then the TV networks start talking about the exits as well.  But none of the topline numbers will be out until voting ends in a given state.
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« Reply #28 on: March 06, 2012, 03:13:10 pm »
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Ron Paul may have a shot at Alaska and may have a shot at second place in North Dakota, Idaho and Vermont. Not too happy about it, but whatever.

He may also be able to pull off a second place in Virginia. Roll Eyes

Hahahahaha
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« Reply #29 on: March 06, 2012, 05:11:01 pm »
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Any turnout rumors/hearsay yet?
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« Reply #30 on: March 06, 2012, 05:14:55 pm »
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This thread is jumpin'...

*crickets*
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« Reply #31 on: March 06, 2012, 05:15:34 pm »
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This is my first time voting in this particular county and precinct in Ohio, but I was number 135 at 4:30 pm. I live in a rural county in Ohio. There were a few people coming to vote at that time... my guess is turnout will be fairly low, not ridiculously low, but certainly not high.
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« Reply #32 on: March 06, 2012, 05:21:58 pm »
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This is my first time voting in this particular county and precinct in Ohio, but I was number 135 at 4:30 pm. I live in a rural county in Ohio. There were a few people coming to vote at that time... my guess is turnout will be fairly low, not ridiculously low, but certainly not high.

Good news for Romney, the candidate of low turnout.
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« Reply #33 on: March 06, 2012, 05:24:40 pm »
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This is my first time voting in this particular county and precinct in Ohio, but I was number 135 at 4:30 pm. I live in a rural county in Ohio. There were a few people coming to vote at that time... my guess is turnout will be fairly low, not ridiculously low, but certainly not high.

Good news for Romney, the candidate of low turnout.

It might also help Santorum, if all the Romney voters decided the nomination was wrapped up and decided to stay home, like they did in CO/MN/MO. Those were also low turnout contests.
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« Reply #34 on: March 06, 2012, 05:26:00 pm »
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I was the only person voting in my precinct when I went, although then again I voted at 4:30 while most people are at work.
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« Reply #35 on: March 06, 2012, 05:26:32 pm »
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Get yo little selves in heeya;

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« Reply #36 on: March 06, 2012, 05:33:26 pm »
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Paul Begala just called Mitt Romney "gorgeous".
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« Reply #37 on: March 06, 2012, 05:41:47 pm »
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White evang @ 71% in TN, 45% in OH both up from 08
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« Reply #38 on: March 06, 2012, 05:44:14 pm »
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White evang @ 71% in TN, 45% in OH both up from 08

That's good for Santorum. However, I have heard these early exit polls also have Santorum and Romney tied among self-identified conservatives. If that's true, Romney's going to win Ohio by a lot.

However, IIRC from some of the other exit polls, Santorum's voters tend to arrive late, so maybe that will help.
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« Reply #39 on: March 06, 2012, 05:44:22 pm »
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White evang @ 71% in TN, 45% in OH both up from 08

Good news for Rick and Newt (hopefully).
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« Reply #40 on: March 06, 2012, 05:45:32 pm »
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White evang @ 71% in TN, 45% in OH both up from 08

That's good for Santorum. However, I have heard these early exit polls also have Santorum and Romney tied among self-identified conservatives. If that's true, Romney's going to win Ohio by a lot.

However, IIRC from some of the other exit polls, Santorum's voters tend to arrive late, so maybe that will help.

Where'd you hear that?
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« Reply #41 on: March 06, 2012, 05:49:00 pm »
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White evang @ 71% in TN, 45% in OH both up from 08

That's good for Santorum. However, I have heard these early exit polls also have Santorum and Romney tied among self-identified conservatives. If that's true, Romney's going to win Ohio by a lot.

However, IIRC from some of the other exit polls, Santorum's voters tend to arrive late, so maybe that will help.

Where'd you hear that?

Twitter, so take those numbers with a large grain of salt.
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« Reply #42 on: March 06, 2012, 05:52:25 pm »
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White evang @ 71% in TN, 45% in OH both up from 08

That's good for Santorum. However, I have heard these early exit polls also have Santorum and Romney tied among self-identified conservatives. If that's true, Romney's going to win Ohio by a lot.

However, IIRC from some of the other exit polls, Santorum's voters tend to arrive late, so maybe that will help.

Where'd you hear that?

Twitter, so take those numbers with a large grain of salt.

Everything about the first wave of exit polls is to be taken with a grain of salt. Not everyone's voted yet, so the exit poll is still going on, and anyway all the demographics will eventually be re-weighted to match the results.
I remember being burned by those first-wave exit polls in 2004!
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« Reply #43 on: March 06, 2012, 05:55:29 pm »
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Hmm, this can't be good news for the Santorum-camp:

Quote
Romney and Santorum tied for Ohio conservatives: exit poll
March 6, 2012, 5:52 PM

It’s a Romney-Santorum tossup so far for Ohio conservatives’ hearts and minds.

In a CNN exit poll, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum split self-described conservative voters in Ohio right down the middle at 39%-39%. Polls are open until 7:30 p.m. Eastern in Ohio, the state Romney and Santorum have battled fiercest over on this Super Tuesday.

If those numbers hold, it’ll be a big change from last week’s contest in Michigan, where “very conservative” voters favored Santorum by 50% to Romney’s 36%. Romney led Santorum 50%-32% in Michigan among those who said they were “somewhat” conservative.

Ohio is one of frontrunner Romney’s main chances to seal the deal with conservatives on Tuesday night – the other is Tennessee, where Santorum has held a slight lead.

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/election/2012/03/06/romney-and-santorum-tied-for-ohio-conservatives-exit-poll
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Volrath50
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« Reply #44 on: March 06, 2012, 05:56:58 pm »
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White evang @ 71% in TN, 45% in OH both up from 08

That's good for Santorum. However, I have heard these early exit polls also have Santorum and Romney tied among self-identified conservatives. If that's true, Romney's going to win Ohio by a lot.

However, IIRC from some of the other exit polls, Santorum's voters tend to arrive late, so maybe that will help.

Where'd you hear that?

Twitter, so take those numbers with a large grain of salt.

Everything about the first wave of exit polls is to be taken with a grain of salt. Not everyone's voted yet, so the exit poll is still going on, and anyway all the demographics will eventually be re-weighted to match the results.
I remember being burned by those first-wave exit polls in 2004!

Yep. I haven't taken early exit polls too seriously ever since President Kerry was elected in a landslide.
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« Reply #45 on: March 06, 2012, 05:58:10 pm »
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Wow, Ohio might be a slaughter. Hopefully Newt can do well in the south.
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« Reply #46 on: March 06, 2012, 06:00:17 pm »
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47 percent of Ohio voters said Romney's positions on the issues were "right," 37% said they were not conservative enough and 7% said they were too conservative.

46 percent of Ohio voters said Santorum's positions on the issues were "right," 24% said they were too conservative and 17% said they were not conservative enough.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/03/06/live-blog-of-super-tuesday-plus-more/?hpt=hp_t1

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« Reply #47 on: March 06, 2012, 06:01:53 pm »
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Super Tuesday Exit Polls: Ohio Voters Divided Over Most Electable Versus Most Empathetic Candidate

OHIO - A diverse mix of voters in Ohio helped shape today’s headline Super Tuesday contest, with preliminary exit poll results highlighting tensions in the Republican race as Mitt Romney leaned on his standing as the most electable candidate while Rick Santorum challenged him with appeals to conservatives and working-class concerns.

A majority of Ohio voters in preliminary exit poll results name Romney as the candidate best able to defeat Barack Obama in November – about usual for other states this year, and more than double the number who choose Santorum. But when asked ”who best understands the problems of average Americans” Romney’s tally dives to 23 percent while Santorum surges to 32 percent.

Electability has been strong for Romney in previous contests; today four in 10 Ohio voters call it the single most important candidate attribute in their vote, ahead of the numbers looking chiefly for someone with strong moral character (about one in five), a true conservative (one in six) or chiefly focused on experience (again, one in six).

Politically, seven in 10 voters in Ohio are Republicans, down from their peak in 2008 but more than last week’s Michigan primary; with a quarter independents. (Democrats are accounting for a very small share in this open primary, as is typical for Ohio.) Romney generally has done better with mainline Republicans than with non-Republicans this year.

While those results are positive for Romney, he also faces challenges in the Ohio electorate. Ohio voters weren’t necessarily quick to decide: Nearly three in 10 made up their minds within the last few days; a group to watch, since, in Michigan last week, late deciders favored Santorum. While fewer than half of Ohio voters are evangelicals, that is more than in Michigan last week, and generally they’ve been a solid group for opponents of Romney. Fewer than half of Ohio voters today are college graduates, fewer than in Michigan; elsewhere non-graduates have been a weaker group for Romney.

As has been the case in every contest with exit polls so far this cycle, the top issue was the economy. More than half of the voters in Ohio pick it as the most important issue in their vote, overwhelming all others; next, is the federal budget deficit, cited by three in 10. Far fewer voters place abortion highest, one in 10; these voters have tended to be a solid group for Santorum.

But Santorum may seek the advantage of some voters’ economic discontent: Seven in 10 voters in Ohio describe themselves as “very worried” about the economy, and in a separate question, nearly a third pick Santorum as the candidate who “best understands the problems of average Americans” – more than say so about any other candidate. About a quarter pick Romney on this basic measure of empathy.

Other states of interest are characterized by sharply different voter profiles and attitudes:

TENNESSEE – A conservative electorate characterizes turnout in Tennessee today: seven in 10 voters are evangelicals, more than in any other primary this year; three-quarters say it matters that a candidate shares their religion beliefs, much higher than in earlier contests where this was asked; and four in 10 describe themselves as “very” conservative, again, more than usual this year. More than two-thirds of voters in the Tennessee primary are Republicans, down from about three-quarters in 2008. While these figures may buoy Santorum’s prospects, he does face hurdles in Tennessee. Preliminary exit poll results indicate that seniors, typically a good group for Romney, are turning out in larger than customary numbers for the state. Four in 10 voters name Romney as the most likely candidate to defeat Obama in November – lower than usual this cycle, but still about double the number who say so about either Santorum or Gingrich. And, as in Ohio, four in 10 voters pick electability as the most important candidate quality, nearly twice the number looking mainly for either a true conservative or for experience.

OKLAHOMA – Strong turnout among core conservative groups dominates the Oklahoma primary today. Evangelicals account for three-quarters of voters in these preliminary results – about as many as in 2008, but much higher than other states this cycle, save Tennessee. Nearly half of voters describe themselves as “very” conservative, more than typical this year, and more than in Oklahoma in 2008. And with more than four in 10 voters making under $50,000, the Oklahoma electorate is lower-income than most so far this year. Still, while again the economy dominates – about half of voters name the economy as the top issue – one in six voters pick abortion as their crucial issue, more than in previous states.

GEORGIA – Newt Gingrich looked to home cooking in Georgia to help revive his campaign. More than a third of voters in the Georgia primary say Gingrich’s ties to the state were important in their vote, though fewer say his home-state appeal mattered a great deal. Even still, Georgia voters didn’t decide earlier than the norm: About three in 10 decided in the past few days, with the majority having decided before that. The Georgia electorate this year is more conservative than in 2008: about four in 10 describe themselves as “very” conservative (up from about a third) and two-thirds are evangelicals (up from about six in 10).

Other states voting tonight were expected to be less competitive than those summarized above.

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/03/super-tuesday-exit-polls-ohio-voters-divided-over-most-electable-versus-most-empathetic-candidate/
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« Reply #48 on: March 06, 2012, 06:01:55 pm »
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I suspect Santorum will lose by double digits or close to it if those numbers hold up.
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« Reply #49 on: March 06, 2012, 06:02:55 pm »
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Santorum is at $0.20 on Intrade, if that is meaningful.  He's been dropping all day.  Mittens is hovering around $8.90.
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