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| | |-+  The Super Tuesday Results Thread
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Author Topic: The Super Tuesday Results Thread  (Read 11994 times)
Tender Branson
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« Reply #575 on: March 07, 2012, 02:21:59 am »
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If Romney wins Alaska, my Atlas Predictions would be all correct (except the percentages).

But it would have been better for the race if Romney lost OH.
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« Reply #576 on: March 07, 2012, 02:27:34 am »
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85% of AK in:

R 4167 (33%)
S 3704 (29%)
P 3033 (24%)
G 1798 (14%)
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« Reply #577 on: March 07, 2012, 02:28:07 am »
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That makes 4 states that Newt has won for Romney.

Newt has only managed to deliver two.

He just crossed into 'liability' status.
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« Reply #578 on: March 07, 2012, 02:29:19 am »
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85% of AK in:

R 4167 (33%)
S 3704 (29%)
P 3033 (24%)
G 1798 (14%)

Unless what's out is in the Mat-Su Valley or Kenai, Romney wins this.
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« Reply #579 on: March 07, 2012, 02:30:04 am »
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85% of AK in:

R 4167 (33%)
S 3704 (29%)
P 3033 (24%)
G 1798 (14%)
Is this the moment for the state party to stop counting the ballots, and declare that Romney has won Alaska?
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #580 on: March 07, 2012, 02:32:22 am »
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Called for Romney.
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« Reply #581 on: March 07, 2012, 02:32:31 am »
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Fox News projects Romney wins Alaska.

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« Reply #582 on: March 07, 2012, 02:35:50 am »
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Sanity wins the day again in the Republican primary!!!!! Palin must be hitting herself on the head for supporting Gingrich.
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« Reply #583 on: March 07, 2012, 02:40:04 am »
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Romney won OK-05, with Santorum placing second.  Santorum won the other 4 CDs.  Gingrich came in second in 3 of those 4 CDs.    Assuming the Green Papers is correct, the 15 Oklahoma CD-level delegates should be allocated Santorum 9, Romney 3, Gingrich 3.   The 25 At-Large delegates will likely be allocated Santorum 9, Romney 8, Gingrich 8 - though it depends on the rounding rules.   So Santorum 18, Romney 11, Gingrich 11 seems like the most likely Oklahoma outcome.
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« Reply #584 on: March 07, 2012, 02:51:32 am »
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The AP says 14-13-13 in Oklahoma, I wonder where their numbers are coming from.
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« Reply #585 on: March 07, 2012, 02:55:40 am »
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I'm pleased to see that PPP is producing accurate polls again, after their crappy caucus polls and their MI poll (which predicted Santorum, but was within the MoE).
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« Reply #586 on: March 07, 2012, 02:59:02 am »
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The AP says 14-13-13 in Oklahoma, I wonder where their numbers are coming from.

It could be a different interpretation of the rules.  The Green Papers, says:

-If one candidate receives more than 50% of the vote or only one candidate receives 15% or more of the vote, that candidate receives 3 delegates.
-Otherwise, if more than 1 candidate receives 15% of the vote, the candidate receiving the most votes receives 2 delegates and the candidate receiving the second most votes receives 1 delegate.
-Otherwise, the top 3 vote-getters receiving 15% or more of the vote each receive 1 delegate.

It could mean that if 3 candidates get more than 15%, each get 1 CD-level delegate.  If that's the case, the 15 CD delegates are split 5 a piece, which would give us the AP's results.
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« Reply #587 on: March 07, 2012, 03:10:12 am »
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Kootenai County still hasn't reported yet. According to the CDA Press, Santorum won the first round of balloting there with 35%, but no word on the final tally yet.
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« Reply #588 on: March 07, 2012, 04:53:43 am »

The TN delegate system is strange, and is destined to f-k Santorum, except that things can be changed later, maybe.  I read the rules here, and the CD count is actually based on named delegates on the ballot, which Newt dominates, but as mentioned, the delegates are not bound now.

As Erc explains here:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=145763.msg3200303#msg3200303

and here:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=145763.msg3210230#msg3210230

the delegates do in fact seem to be bound by the results of the primary.  So, even though Santorum didn't have his own delegate slate there, the relevant proportion of the delegates he's entitled to from the primary vote are still obliged to vote for him at the convention.
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« Reply #589 on: March 07, 2012, 05:04:56 am »
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I'm pleased with the fact that I'm yet to see a prediction that did better than mine on points. Wink
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« Reply #590 on: March 07, 2012, 09:42:07 am »
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The TN delegate system is strange, and is destined to f-k Santorum, except that things can be changed later, maybe.  I read the rules here, and the CD count is actually based on named delegates on the ballot, which Newt dominates, but as mentioned, the delegates are not bound now.

As Erc explains here:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=145763.msg3200303#msg3200303

and here:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=145763.msg3210230#msg3210230

the delegates do in fact seem to be bound by the results of the primary.  So, even though Santorum didn't have his own delegate slate there, the relevant proportion of the delegates he's entitled to from the primary vote are still obliged to vote for him at the convention.

There is no disagreement that the at-large delegates are bound to the winner of the primary split proportionally to whomever meets the 20% threshold.

Without looking at the video, I cannot agree with Erc's interpretation of the rules, and no lawyer would, not to mention that it does not fit with the rest of the system.  The rule says that you can fill a delegate spot when it become vacant.  But this language presumes that a delegate has vacated in the first place.  Since Santorum had no delegates in place "in the first instance", the rule cannot apply.  After all, delegates have already been elected via the primary.

It seems to me that there are two ways that Santorum can get the delegates.  One, if the state party bounds them to the actual results, something which is not explicitly stated in the rules.  Two, if Santorum can convince the elected delegates to vote for him based on the actual results, or force them to vacate.  Even then, the more reasonable interpretation of the rules seems to be that the vacated delegates must be replaced by the person whom they support.

FWIW, according to TN SOS, the delegates elected support the following candidates: TN-1 (3 Newt), TN-2 (3 Romney), TN-3 (3 Newt), TN-4 (2 Romney, 1 Newt), TN-5 (2 Romney, 1 Newt), TN-6 (3 Newt), TN-7 (2 Newt, 1 Romney), TN-8 (3 Newt), TN-9 (3 Romney), so 16 Newt, 11 Romney.
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« Reply #591 on: March 07, 2012, 09:47:44 am »
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The AP says 14-13-13 in Oklahoma, I wonder where their numbers are coming from.

It could be a different interpretation of the rules.  The Green Papers, says:

-If one candidate receives more than 50% of the vote or only one candidate receives 15% or more of the vote, that candidate receives 3 delegates.
-Otherwise, if more than 1 candidate receives 15% of the vote, the candidate receiving the most votes receives 2 delegates and the candidate receiving the second most votes receives 1 delegate.
-Otherwise, the top 3 vote-getters receiving 15% or more of the vote each receive 1 delegate.

It could mean that if 3 candidates get more than 15%, each get 1 CD-level delegate.  If that's the case, the 15 CD delegates are split 5 a piece, which would give us the AP's results.

Well, under your interpretation, it is implied that only of the candidates tied in actual raw votes would the third paragraph come into play.

The APs interpretation is that if only two candidates get over 15% does the second paragraph apply, otherwise if three candidates get over 15%, the third paragraph applies.

Which do you think makes more sense?
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« Reply #592 on: March 07, 2012, 10:05:04 am »
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Kootenai County still hasn't reported yet. According to the CDA Press, Santorum won the first round of balloting there with 35%, but no word on the final tally yet.

Romney came in third; the runoff was between Santorum and Paul.


Counties where Romney came in third:
Benewah
Kootenai
Idaho
Clearwater
Bonner
Boundary

Romney came in second in Shoshone because there are so few active Republicans there (Democrats regularly turnout 2 to 3 times more voters during primaries). The only people who voted for him there were Mormons.
« Last Edit: March 07, 2012, 10:14:28 am by Ron Swanson »Logged



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« Reply #593 on: March 07, 2012, 12:04:03 pm »
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I'm glad I didn't get my family to vote for Santorum, since that would put him over 40% in ND and cost me a point. Though Paul lost their LD by only 5 votes...if I got all four of them to vote and to get two others to I could've flipped it, lol. BTW my mom reported a ton of calls and junk mail from the Romney campaign, and nothing from Santorum.

Some notable things in the results: http://www.google.com/elections/ed/us/results/2012/gop-primary/nd

-See that Romney LD north of Bismarck? That doesn't surprise me at all. Go look at that area on Google Street View if you want to see why.
-I find it amusing those two Santorum LDs in Fargo surrounded by the Paul LDs are easily explainable with the info provided on the map alone. Zoom if you want to see why.

The two things I don't understand: Paul winning Dickinson and Romney winning Minot. Especially the latter as it wasn't particularly close in the actual city.
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« Reply #594 on: March 07, 2012, 12:05:34 pm »
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OK why did Santorum win Shelby County? Aren't the Memphis suburbs full of rich Republicans?
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« Reply #595 on: March 07, 2012, 12:31:20 pm »
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So basically Ron Paul's last hope at this point is a freak Hawaii victory...

He should have a shot at Montana, theoretically.
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« Reply #596 on: March 07, 2012, 01:29:55 pm »
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So basically Ron Paul's last hope at this point is a freak Hawaii victory...

He should have a shot at Montana, theoretically.
He could troll one of the tiny pacific caucuses, he has a chance in Montana (apparently that's one where the GOP would have no problem at all with changing the results though) if they're all still in by the time it comes around. In this case Nebraska could also be in play. But realistically, as for getting a win in 2012, it's over for Paul. He's been very unlucky not to win at least one state. Hopefully he can get enough delegates to force a brokered convention.
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« Reply #597 on: March 07, 2012, 01:37:13 pm »
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Isn't Montana doing a primary this time instead of a caucus?
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« Reply #598 on: March 07, 2012, 01:56:57 pm »
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OK why did Santorum win Shelby County? Aren't the Memphis suburbs full of rich Republicans?

In this part of the world, richers are frequently more likely to be religious nutters than poors. At least among white people (Republicans). And without precinct information, it's hard to tell who voted for whom. Northern Shelby County, for instance, is neither rich nor suburban. It may as well be its own rural county.  And Santorum won with 37% countywide. Hardly a strong showing.
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« Reply #599 on: March 07, 2012, 02:53:52 pm »
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Isn't Montana doing a primary this time instead of a caucus?

Yes, which is why Paul does not have a shot at Montana. Even a caucus though, I don't think he could have won. Yes he got 25% there in 2008, but he also did about as well in North Dakota and Washington in 2008 and only improved by a few points this year.
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