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Author Topic: The Super Tuesday Results Thread  (Read 12838 times)
Erc
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« Reply #600 on: March 07, 2012, 03:26:35 pm »
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Isn't Montana doing a primary this time instead of a caucus?

Yes, which is why Paul does not have a shot at Montana. Even a caucus though, I don't think he could have won. Yes he got 25% there in 2008, but he also did about as well in North Dakota and Washington in 2008 and only improved by a few points this year.

The primary is completely non-binding; the delegates are decided entirely the State Convention.  The County Central Committees decide who attends the State Convention.  This makes Montana the least democratic process this year (even the Wyoming caucuses had an effect this time around), but it presumably makes it harder for the Paulistas to take control (unless they already have taken control of all the County Committees, which I doubt they have).
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Erc
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« Reply #601 on: March 07, 2012, 03:28:30 pm »
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Don't know if this has already been addressed, but are precinct/LD/caucus site/whatever results available for Alaska?  Or is the only thing reported the statewide result?
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cinyc
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« Reply #602 on: March 07, 2012, 05:24:53 pm »
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Don't know if this has already been addressed, but are precinct/LD/caucus site/whatever results available for Alaska?  Or is the only thing reported the statewide result?

The only thing I've seen reported is the overall tally and some anecdotal results from the Fairbanks newspaper.  The polling places were arranged by House District, but results were never released that way.  The Fairbanks Daily News-Miner says this about the Interior Alaska vote:

Quote
Out of about 1,700 votes cast in Fairbanks, Paul won about 31 percent of the vote, followed by Romney with 24 percent, Santorum with 21 percent and Gingrich with 15.5 percent. Paul won every Interior district but North Pole, where Gingrich had a strong showing.

--Snip--

During the four-hour window, 37 voters cast ballots in Healy with most going to Santorum, who won 23 votes.

According to final numbers early this morning, Alaska will send eight delegates in support of Romney to the Republican National Convention in August. Santorum will get seven, Paul will likely get six and Gingrich will get three.
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cinyc
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« Reply #603 on: March 07, 2012, 05:28:11 pm »
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The AP says 14-13-13 in Oklahoma, I wonder where their numbers are coming from.

It could be a different interpretation of the rules.  The Green Papers, says:

-If one candidate receives more than 50% of the vote or only one candidate receives 15% or more of the vote, that candidate receives 3 delegates.
-Otherwise, if more than 1 candidate receives 15% of the vote, the candidate receiving the most votes receives 2 delegates and the candidate receiving the second most votes receives 1 delegate.
-Otherwise, the top 3 vote-getters receiving 15% or more of the vote each receive 1 delegate.

It could mean that if 3 candidates get more than 15%, each get 1 CD-level delegate.  If that's the case, the 15 CD delegates are split 5 a piece, which would give us the AP's results.

Well, under your interpretation, it is implied that only of the candidates tied in actual raw votes would the third paragraph come into play.

The APs interpretation is that if only two candidates get over 15% does the second paragraph apply, otherwise if three candidates get over 15%, the third paragraph applies.

Which do you think makes more sense?

The AP's interpretation makes more sense.  But I'd like to see the actual rules rather than rely on The Green Papers, which could be clearer.
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Erc
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« Reply #604 on: March 07, 2012, 05:57:01 pm »
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The AP says 14-13-13 in Oklahoma, I wonder where their numbers are coming from.

It could be a different interpretation of the rules.  The Green Papers, says:

-If one candidate receives more than 50% of the vote or only one candidate receives 15% or more of the vote, that candidate receives 3 delegates.
-Otherwise, if more than 1 candidate receives 15% of the vote, the candidate receiving the most votes receives 2 delegates and the candidate receiving the second most votes receives 1 delegate.
-Otherwise, the top 3 vote-getters receiving 15% or more of the vote each receive 1 delegate.

It could mean that if 3 candidates get more than 15%, each get 1 CD-level delegate.  If that's the case, the 15 CD delegates are split 5 a piece, which would give us the AP's results.

Well, under your interpretation, it is implied that only of the candidates tied in actual raw votes would the third paragraph come into play.

The APs interpretation is that if only two candidates get over 15% does the second paragraph apply, otherwise if three candidates get over 15%, the third paragraph applies.

Which do you think makes more sense?

The AP's interpretation makes more sense.  But I'd like to see the actual rules rather than rely on The Green Papers, which could be clearer.

The Green Papers is wrong in this case.  Rules are here if you want to poke through them yourself.

"If three or more presidential candidates receive 15 percent or more of such total vote in the district, the top three finishers in the District shall each be awarded one Delegate from that district."
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #605 on: March 07, 2012, 06:58:09 pm »
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Don't know if this has already been addressed, but are precinct/LD/caucus site/whatever results available for Alaska?  Or is the only thing reported the statewide result?

I have the results by House District and will post them when I get the chance.
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Erc
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« Reply #606 on: March 07, 2012, 07:14:16 pm »
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Don't know if this has already been addressed, but are precinct/LD/caucus site/whatever results available for Alaska?  Or is the only thing reported the statewide result?

I have the results by House District and will post them when I get the chance.

<3
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #607 on: March 07, 2012, 07:25:28 pm »
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I'm not on my laptop at the moment, but I can tell you a couple things about the results I remember off the top of my head:

Gingrich won one district in Fairbanks, randomly, while Paul swept the others. Anchorage was split between Romney and Paul. Santorum did well in Mat-Su, but so did Romney; Santorum only broke 40% in one small district, but Romney did in many. Paul won most of the outlying rural areas. Two districts had no voters, just as in 2008. Apparently Barrow isn't filled with Republicans?
« Last Edit: March 07, 2012, 08:49:51 pm by realisticidealist »Logged

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« Reply #608 on: March 07, 2012, 07:49:08 pm »
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Called for Romney.

Thank you Alaska!
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« Reply #609 on: March 07, 2012, 08:29:34 pm »
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I guess Palin doesn't have as much influence in the state as she thinks she does.
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #610 on: March 07, 2012, 09:27:41 pm »
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I've put Alaska maps and a table with the results here: http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=97330.msg3224472#msg3224472
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« Reply #611 on: March 08, 2012, 12:58:48 am »
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I've put Alaska maps and a table with the results here: http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=97330.msg3224472#msg3224472

Thank you very much!  I'll have some more reliable delegate numbers momentarily.

I assume there was just no vote held in LDs 37 & 40?  Understandable, Bethel and Barrow may not be pleasant places this time of year.
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #612 on: March 08, 2012, 01:02:46 am »
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I've put Alaska maps and a table with the results here: http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=97330.msg3224472#msg3224472

Thank you very much!  I'll have some more reliable delegate numbers momentarily.

I assume there was just no vote held in LDs 37 & 40?  Understandable, Bethel and Barrow may not be pleasant places this time of year.

I believe so.
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Erc
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« Reply #613 on: March 08, 2012, 01:35:05 am »
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I've put Alaska maps and a table with the results here: http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=97330.msg3224472#msg3224472

Thank you very much!  I'll have some more reliable delegate numbers momentarily.

I assume there was just no vote held in LDs 37 & 40?  Understandable, Bethel and Barrow may not be pleasant places this time of year.

I believe so.

Depending on what is done with LDs 37 & 40, there is some wiggle room with the delegate results.  Remember, the delegate allocations are based on Tuesday's vote, but they are weighted by district, so there's some ambiguity about what to do with the 0.86 delegates that those two districts correspond to.

The media-reported numbers (and my preliminary numbers) are in line with just treating them as uncommitted.  If they are left out of the calculus entirely, Paul gains a delegate from Gingrich.  If they hold votes later in the month (in theory they could at any point between now and the 24th), it's possible for any candidate (or two) to gain a single delegate from Gingrich.
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #614 on: March 08, 2012, 02:27:59 am »
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I think they're Uncommitted delegates.
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« Reply #615 on: March 08, 2012, 10:23:49 pm »
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So I went with the safe bet in ND, and got it wrong, yet I played it risky in AK, and got it wrong.  I guess I got the 2 backwards.  I almost had ND going for Santorum, but with his dropping in the polls, I thought taking the chance on AK was enough for one day.

There really isn't a good way of looking at the polls for caucus states.  Santorum has outperformed expectations in some states, while in others, he's done under what people expected him to do.
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #616 on: March 08, 2012, 10:26:08 pm »
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I was also surprised Paul did as well as he did in Virginia.  I didn't think the anti-Romney crowd would care that much that they'd go to Paul.
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« Reply #617 on: March 08, 2012, 10:49:00 pm »
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OK why did Santorum win Shelby County? Aren't the Memphis suburbs full of rich Republicans?

In this part of the world, richers are frequently more likely to be religious nutters than poors. At least among white people (Republicans). And without precinct information, it's hard to tell who voted for whom. Northern Shelby County, for instance, is neither rich nor suburban. It may as well be its own rural county.  And Santorum won with 37% countywide. Hardly a strong showing.

Santorum won the more middle/upper-middle class suburbs, Romney cleaned up in the wealthier and more cosmopolitan Poplar corridor.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #618 on: March 09, 2012, 05:48:19 am »

I have an important question about the Massachusetts primary:

Who did Dave Leip vote for?
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« Reply #619 on: March 09, 2012, 02:16:15 pm »
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I have an important question about the Massachusetts primary:

Who did Dave Leip vote for?


Ron Paul, kid.
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Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon
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« Reply #620 on: March 11, 2012, 09:51:57 pm »
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Presidential Primary results from Shelby County, TN

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