The Super Tuesday Results Thread

[cinyc]

Cuyahoga County with about 80% in:

Mitt Romney ( REP )   34658
Rick Santorum ( REP )   21620

That should net Romney another 2613 votes from what the AP is showing.

[Wiz in Wis]

Look at the calendar... even Romney winning Ohio tonight won't change the fact that Santorum and Gingrich will win Alabama, Mississippi, Kansas and the Missouri caucus. That's four non-Romney wins before we get back to territory he will be competitive in. This thing will go on until May at minimum.

[cinyc]

Ohio SoS website has Romney leading in OH-01, 02, 06, 09, 10, 11, 13, 14 and 16 - 9 of the 16 CDs.  Santorum leads in the rest.  Which CDs didn't Santorum file a slate of delegates for?

If their OH-06 is the Ohio River CD, that strikes me as amazing. Are you sure? That is Santorum central.

That's what the Ohio SoS' website is showing.  It also doesn't even list Santorum in the OH-06 tally at all, placing Gingrich in second, so I wouldn't rely on it.

[patrick1]

I'm very pleased with tonight - an upset in Tennessee would have been great, but still, it's going to be hard for anyone but Romney to spin this as a win. Hopefully it'll be able to hold him through till April 24th. It should.

Over 50% of the delegates tonight in a four-way race = ROMNEY VICTORY

This is almost the definition of a Pyrrhic victory.  Romney is just a terrible candidate.  He can't even seal the deal against Santorum, Gingrich and Paul, and has to spend untold millions of his donors' money just to eek out small wins.   Even most Republicans can't stand him.  

[Politico]

How will Rick spin this Ohio result? Will he publicly urge Newt to drop out?

Santorum is the only candidate to not finish above 40% in any state (unless AK or ND surprises), so why should Gingrich drop out? Gingrich nearly got 50% in the second biggest state tonight...

Actually I thought Rick ran rather impressively everywhere relatively speaking - even in Georgia, where Newt's margin was pedestrian really. It was Newt who collapsed, which was TN was not that close for example. Newt was invisible in Ohio. In Mass, he got 4%.  

All we need from Newt is just enough of a performance to somehow get Mississippi and Alabama in the Romney column. If that happens, it would be the nail in the coffin. It would be nice. I do not think it is going to happen, but it looks more likely after seeing Tennessee/Oklahoma, and factoring in Newt's momentum boost from Georgia. There is a 10-20% probability whereas earlier tonight I would have put it at 5%.

[ajb]

It has to be a disappointing night for all of the candidates.
Gingrich won Georgia, but underperformed everywhere else.
Paul hit 40% in Virginia, by far his best performance yet, but still hasn't won a state.
Santorum won TN and OK, and came very close in Ohio, but won't win Ohio.
Romney won ID, VT, MA and VA, which gives him a bunch of delegates. Winning Ohio is nice, but it's not like he's going to get a lot of momentum out of that, especially not in KS, MS, AL and LA. He's got a long month ahead of him.

[5280]

So when is Gingrich going to drop out? Tomorrow, hopefully soon Im guessing.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Look at the calendar... even Romney winning Ohio tonight won't change the fact that Santorum and Gingrich will win Alabama, Mississippi, Kansas and the Missouri caucus. That's four non-Romney wins before we get back to territory he will be competitive in. This thing will go on until May at minimum.

I've got a feeling this won't be decided until California votes in early June.

[Torie]

Ohio SoS website has Romney leading in OH-01, 02, 06, 09, 10, 11, 13, 14 and 16 - 9 of the 16 CDs.  Santorum leads in the rest.  Which CDs didn't Santorum file a slate of delegates for?

If their OH-06 is the Ohio River CD, that strikes me as amazing. Are you sure? That is Santorum central.

That's what the Ohio SoS' website is showing.  It also doesn't even list Santorum in the OH-06 tally at all, placing Gingrich in second, so I wouldn't rely on it.

Is it showing vote totals, or just calling the CD's? Maybe they called OH-06 for Mittens because Rick did not file any delegate slate.  If so, that is "unfortunate."  

[ag]

No, 20,000 votes aren't very likely. It's about 5,500 now, and I can hardly see Cuyahoga more than doubling this. BTW, recent margin increase is due to a dump from Delaware.

[Joe Biden 2020]

So when is Gingrich going to drop out? Tomorrow, hopefully soon Im guessing.

Bring your lunch, it could be a while before he drops out.  He's got 5 good states ahead of him.

[Politico]

No, 20,000 votes aren't very likely. It's about 5,500 now, and I can hardly see Cuyahoga more than doubling this. BTW, recent margin increase is due to a dump from Delaware.

I think this is more likely than 20,000 votes. Hopefully Romney gets at least enough to prevent a recount.

[Eraserhead]

I'm not really sure what to say about Obama's performance in the Oklahoma Democratic Primary.

[cinyc]

Is it showing vote totals, or just calling the CD's? Maybe they called OH-06 for Mittens because Rick did not file any delegate slate.  If so, that is "unfortunate."  

It's showing vote totals:

President - District 06 (R)
Candidate / Issue   % of Votes   Number Of Votes
Romney, Mitt (R)   40.80%   26,572
Gingrich, Newt (R)   31.42%   20,461
Paul, Ron (R)   19.21%   12,511
Perry, Rick (R)   5.74%   3,738
Huntsman, Jon (R)   2.83%   1,840

AP is reporting the same erroneous numbers.

I don't know whether Santorum filed a delegate slate in that CD.

[Likely Voter]

If Santorum performed better with Catholics or College Educated or Women, he would have won OH.

If he just hadn't gone down the road of education snobs, barfing at Kennedy speech and talkingcontraception, he would have won MI and OH and he would really have a shot. But I guess Rick's got to be Rick.

[Politico]

while everyone is obsessing about Ohio, Romney just picked up ALL of Idaho's 32 delegates

Thanks Idaho!  

I'll celebrate by eating an Idaho potato tomorrow night! Hopefully I can couple it with Alaskan salmon rather than Boston clam chowder...

[Torie]

Is it showing vote totals, or just calling the CD's? Maybe they called OH-06 for Mittens because Rick did not file any delegate slate.  If so, that is "unfortunate."  

It's showing vote totals:

President - District 06 (R)
Candidate / Issue   % of Votes   Number Of Votes
Romney, Mitt (R)   40.80%   26,572
Gingrich, Newt (R)   31.42%   20,461
Paul, Ron (R)   19.21%   12,511
Perry, Rick (R)   5.74%   3,738
Huntsman, Jon (R)   2.83%   1,840

AP is reporting the same erroneous numbers.

I don't know whether Santorum filed a delegate slate in that CD.

He didn't. That was his major cf, because it should be his strongest CD. Crazy world we live in.

[platypeanArchcow]

All we need from Newt is just enough of a performance to somehow get Mississippi and Alabama in the Romney column. If that happens, it would be the nail in the coffin. It would be nice. I do not think it is going to happen, but it looks more likely after seeing Tennessee/Oklahoma, and factoring in Newt's momentum boost from Georgia. There is a 10-20% probability whereas earlier tonight I would have put it at 5%.

I wouldn't bet on it.  In Tennessee and Oklahoma, Mitt got less than a third of the three-man vote.  Alabama and Mississippi are unlikely to be any better for him.  So if Rick and Newt split the vote exactly, all Mitt will get out of it is an embarrassing third.

[Joe Biden 2020]

I'm not really sure what to say about Obama's performance in the Oklahoma Democratic Primary.

If Mitt Romney ends up winning the nomination, something will have to give in Oklahoma.  Keep in mind, the Republican has won all 77 counties in both 2004 and 2008.  Looking at the results tonight, we are not that fond of Mitt Romney, but we are very disappointed in Barack Obama.  Will Mitt Romney be good enough to sweep all 77 Oklahoma counties, or will Barack Obama win a few counties?

[mondale84]

How will Rick spin this Ohio result? Will he publicly urge Newt to drop out?

Santorum is the only candidate to not finish above 40% in any state (unless AK or ND surprises), so why should Gingrich drop out? Gingrich nearly got 50% in the second biggest state tonight...

Actually I thought Rick ran rather impressively everywhere relatively speaking - even in Georgia, where Newt's margin was pedestrian really. It was Newt who collapsed, which was TN was not that close for example. Newt was invisible in Ohio. In Mass, he got 4%.  

All we need from Newt is just enough of a performance to somehow get Mississippi and Alabama in the Romney column. If that happens, it would be the nail in the coffin. It would be nice. I do not think it is going to happen, but it looks more likely after seeing Tennessee/Oklahoma, and factoring in Newt's momentum boost from Georgia. There is a 10-20% probability whereas earlier tonight I would have put it at 5%.

Romney ain't winning Alabama or Mississippi...not happening...

[yourelection]

After the dust settles tomorrow, this will be seen as a Romney victory. He will get a smidgen of a momentum. The southern primaries will prolong the event and Romney will have to wait for more favorable states to drudge on to the nomination.

Romney stays front-runner.

[Torie]

Mittens at the moment has 76% of the votes in Idaho. I guess that is what happens if you get all of the LDS and half the rest. Hey it rhymes!

[mondale84]

I'm not really sure what to say about Obama's performance in the Oklahoma Democratic Primary.

If Mitt Romney ends up winning the nomination, something will have to give in Oklahoma.  Keep in mind, the Republican has won all 77 counties in both 2004 and 2008.  Looking at the results tonight, we are not that fond of Mitt Romney, but we are very disappointed in Barack Obama.  Will Mitt Romney be good enough to sweep all 77 Oklahoma counties, or will Barack Obama win a few counties?

Obama will lose every county in the state by AT LEAST 15 points...you heard it here first...

[ag]

Oh, you guys in Oklahoma will troop out to vote unanimously for Romney in November, no doubt of that.

[Politico]

All we need from Newt is just enough of a performance to somehow get Mississippi and Alabama in the Romney column. If that happens, it would be the nail in the coffin. It would be nice. I do not think it is going to happen, but it looks more likely after seeing Tennessee/Oklahoma, and factoring in Newt's momentum boost from Georgia. There is a 10-20% probability whereas earlier tonight I would have put it at 5%.

I wouldn't bet on it.  In Tennessee and Oklahoma, Mitt got less than a third of the three-man vote.  Alabama and Mississippi are unlikely to be any better for him.  So if Rick and Newt split the vote exactly, all Mitt will get out of it is an embarrassing third.

In Tennessee, take 10% from Santorum and give it to Gingrich and Romney wins.

Romney could have won Oklahoma had he visited and spent resources there.

I still think it is unlikely that Romney will win Mississippi/Alabama, but the odds have doubled or more after Gingrich's big victory tonight.