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| | |-+  The Super Tuesday Results Thread
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Author Topic: The Super Tuesday Results Thread  (Read 11984 times)
Torie
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« Reply #525 on: March 07, 2012, 12:20:40 am »
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Super Tuesday is pretty much wrapped up. Not going to wait for Alaska to come in.

My caption on the event is up on the blog (http://www.yourelection.net/2012/03/romney-better-than-santorum-on-super-tuesday/)

Time for me to sign off.

Nicely written. The thing is, when you game this, with assumptions that are cautious for Mittens, he gets to within a 100 delegates of a majority at the end. And he has those extra 100 from the establishment "uncommitted" delegates. So the odds are low (something rather major will have to happen to dramatically change the game), that Mittens will not have an absolute majority, and even if he doesn't, it is hard to believe that everyone else will gang up on him and give the nomination to someone else. So it is really an issue of how long this goes on, and what it portends, plus or minus or wash, for the General election.
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ajb
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« Reply #526 on: March 07, 2012, 12:21:48 am »
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Santorum has really been underperforming, delegates-wise. Not only the Ohio debacle, but coming just short in GA, and all sorts of places, really.
I know he has a lean campagin team, but he needs his own David Plouffe if he's going to pull this off.

I think this showed a weakening of Santorum, in terms of election results.
In many ways, though I don't think Romney comes out of the night looking that good, either. I'm pretty sure he'll win the nomination, but he's not looking like a terribly strong frontrunner, and he's got a pretty ugly few weeks of primaries ahead of him. Tonight won't help him win MS or AL.
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ajb
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« Reply #527 on: March 07, 2012, 12:26:14 am »
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Super Tuesday is pretty much wrapped up. Not going to wait for Alaska to come in.

My caption on the event is up on the blog (http://www.yourelection.net/2012/03/romney-better-than-santorum-on-super-tuesday/)

Time for me to sign off.

Nicely written. The thing is, when you game this, with assumptions that are cautious for Mittens, he gets to within a 100 delegates of a majority at the end. And he has those extra 100 from the establishment "uncommitted" delegates. So the odds are low (something rather major will have to happen to dramatically change the game), that Mittens will not have an absolute majority, and even if he doesn't, it is hard to believe that everyone else will gang up on him and give the nomination to someone else. So it is really an issue of how long this goes on, and what it portends, plus or minus or wash, for the General election.

His rivals have to try for Hillary Clinton's strategy in 2008. She likewise knew that she couldn't win a majority of pledged delegates after February, but hoped to convince superdelegates to put her over the top by showing that Obama was unelectable. Her position was in most ways stronger, in that she was closer to Obama in delegate totals, and it was a one-on-one race, and she was the original establishment choice. Still didn't work for her.
Probably won't work for Santorum or Gingrich, either, unless they can make a convincing case that Romney is unelectable.
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retromike22
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« Reply #528 on: March 07, 2012, 12:30:54 am »
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Romney projected the winner of Ohio -AP
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« Reply #529 on: March 07, 2012, 12:31:18 am »
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AP tally has finally caught up with the county BoE sites.  Romney +12,000.  

This should be called.  What's left in Stark, Brown and Medina counties simply isn't enough for Santorum to make up the difference - even if all 3 counties were Santorum counties.
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« Reply #530 on: March 07, 2012, 12:33:18 am »
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CNN calls Ohio for Romney.
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« Reply #531 on: March 07, 2012, 12:35:24 am »
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Do we have any idea what is happening in Alaska or when we'll get results or anything???
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #532 on: March 07, 2012, 12:43:12 am »
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OK delegate breakdown from AP:
14 Santorum, 13 Romney, 13 Gingrich = wash

GA delegate breakdown from SoS:
45 Gingrich, 14 Romney, 2 Santorum.  5 CDs still out.  Mitt leads in the two Atlanta black CDs and Newt has majorities in two others, so probably 10-4-1 when all is said and done.

The TN delegate system is strange, and is destined to f-k Santorum, except that things can be changed later, maybe.  I read the rules here, and the CD count is actually based on named delegates on the ballot, which Newt dominates, but as mentioned, the delegates are not bound now.
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Torie
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« Reply #533 on: March 07, 2012, 12:46:19 am »
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CNN calls Ohio for Romney.

CNN explained their delay by saying there were 30,000 uncounted late absentees and provisional ballots, and they finally decided given the 12,000 vote margin for Mittens in the bag, that it needed to be 60,000 left rather than 30,000 for Rick to have prayer, and given the 30,000 vote uncounted deficit, it was mathematically certain that Mittens had won.

Again, CNN gets an A+ for its coverage.
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« Reply #534 on: March 07, 2012, 12:46:44 am »
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Come on, Alaska. I'm tired.
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As expected the wop won.

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« Reply #535 on: March 07, 2012, 12:47:44 am »
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Do we have any idea what is happening in Alaska or when we'll get results or anything???

Alaska's caucuses just closed 45 minutes ago.  They are more like primaries than caucuses, really, with polls open for 4 hours until 8PM local time.  No results yet, even on the Anchorage newspaper's website or the Alaska Republican party's website (which doesn't look like it will have results).

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J. J.
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« Reply #536 on: March 07, 2012, 12:48:07 am »
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Fox CNN calls Ohio for Romney.

Rove projects more than 200 delegates for Romney tonight (exclusive of AK), more than all the others combined.

Go Mittens!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qB1kp9adYYE&feature=related
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J. J.

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« Reply #537 on: March 07, 2012, 12:51:12 am »
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In other news, Kaptur beats Dennis by 56% to 40%.  Congress will be a duller place, and I will mess his savoring his wife, for whom I have a fancy. Sad

You dirty dog.
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« Reply #538 on: March 07, 2012, 12:51:25 am »
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OH-12 flipped back to Santorum with all in, giving Romney a 9-7 CD lead again.  That will likely be the final result.  It likely would have been 8-8 had Santorum filed a delegate slate in OH-06.

Edited to add: Or not.  The AP and SoS tallies differ.  It might still be 10-6.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #539 on: March 07, 2012, 12:57:06 am »
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Paul wins Kodiak with 69 votes to Romney's/Santorum's 67 votes. One vote was "undecided."
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Torie
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« Reply #540 on: March 07, 2012, 12:57:22 am »
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In other news, Kaptur beats Dennis by 56% to 40%.  Congress will be a duller place, and I will mess his savoring his wife, for whom I have a fancy. Sad

You dirty dog.

Unfortunate, or fortunate, typo, depending on your point of view. Tongue
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J. J.
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« Reply #541 on: March 07, 2012, 12:58:01 am »
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In very early results, Romney leading in AK.
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J. J.

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« Reply #542 on: March 07, 2012, 01:10:12 am »
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It will be tough to tell how Alaska is unfolding since we don't know where the votes are coming from.  The caucus sites were laid out on a Alaska House District level basis.  Too bad the AP isn't reporting results as such.  (One at large district was in Washington DC.)
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Miles
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« Reply #543 on: March 07, 2012, 01:11:39 am »
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The AP has Romney up 37-26 over Santorum with 8% in.
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« Reply #544 on: March 07, 2012, 01:13:36 am »
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Why is the Idaho panhandle taking so long to report?
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« Reply #545 on: March 07, 2012, 01:14:48 am »
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Politico.com has Romney 38,Santorum 26 in AK

But that is, in real terms, 601 votes over 482 so don't call it too significant just yet.....
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cinyc
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« Reply #546 on: March 07, 2012, 01:16:40 am »
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Why is the Idaho panhandle taking so long to report?

A good portion of it is in the Pacific Time Zone.  Perhaps that has something to do with it.
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J. J.
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« Reply #547 on: March 07, 2012, 01:19:09 am »
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AK @ 16%, Romney 32, Paul 25%, Santorum 23%.
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J. J.

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« Reply #548 on: March 07, 2012, 01:20:41 am »
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Why is the Idaho panhandle taking so long to report?

A good portion of it is in the Pacific Time Zone.  Perhaps that has something to do with it.

All of it is in the Pacific time zone and turnout was sky high. The caucuses only finished a hour and thirty minutes ago in Kootenai County.

Check out out that clear divide between north Idaho and the south. Why are we in the same state, again? I was expecting Romney to do really poorly up here but not this poorly. Paul is won an absolute majority in both Boundary and Latah County. Romney didn't receive one vote in Clearwater County (lol).
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Miles
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« Reply #549 on: March 07, 2012, 01:23:37 am »
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And we have 12.6% of AK in:

MR- 32%
RP- 25%
RS- 23%
NG- 20%
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