The Super Tuesday Results Thread

[Torie]

Let me clarify remarks made about 10 minutes ago.  Probably somewhere around a 2-1 shot Santorum wins Ohio.  Really am not seeing where the votes come from to help Romney overcome the margin.

Really? I very much respect your political insight. But why wouldn't Cuyahoga and Hamilton propel him over the top?

If taken alone, yes, they might.  But we don't know where the precincts are that are reporting, and generally in Cleveland, the inner precincts with no votes report last.

That appears to be true in Dayton, Columbus and Cleveland as well. Maybe Columbus and Cleveland are not that variegated, but Dayton (Montgomery County) might be. And it has a fairly low percentage of precincts reporting. Still, if I had to guess, the odds of Santorum getting more votes in the end is probably around 60% now. The "problem" is that the GOP electorate is just that variegated. It's not like a Pub versus a Dem contest - at all.

[Torie]

CNN read live another slug of votes from Hamilton, and it slashed Rick's margin down to 9K votes. It then "visited" some other Mittens counties, and it looks about dead even, if elsewhere, what come before matches what comes next. The key may be Clemont, where Rick has a slight lead, with 1% of the vote in.

[Torie]

Mitt's closing in, but I'm not sure it'll be enough.

I really think it comes down to Clemont. If it goes Rick, Rick wins - if what came before per county replicates what remains.

[Torie]

The counties to watch now are Cuyahoga and Medina (which hasn't reported anything yet).. Medina could be key.

Yes, I forgot Medina, but I suspect it will be close between Mittens and Rick.

[Torie]

In other news that no one will pay attention to, I'd be really surprised, with what's left, that Rick makes the 20% threshold in GA.

I think it was expected that Rick would be shut out in Georgia. That was my assumption when I prepared my spreadsheet.

[Torie]

Gap 2,500 now in favor of Rick.  CNN didn't say why or where, because it had to cut to a commercial.

[Torie]

Cuyahoga is:
Mitt Romney ( REP )   28220
Rick Santorum ( REP )   17795

with about 60% in, according to the county's website.

That's a net gain of 3,441 for Romney from what the AP is showing.

So the "why" is a Cuyahoga dump. Was it more Mittens than what come before there?

[Torie]

Romney will win and by maybe 5,000+ plus votes unless Medina and Clemont surprise big time. The Hamilton dump put Mittens ahead, with a ton of votes still out in Cleveland.

As noted above, it's over. Boy, Mittens must have been sweating!

[Torie]

Kudos to CNN for a fantastic reporting job. A+!

[Torie]

Romney will win and by maybe 5,000+ plus votes unless Medina and Clemont surprise big time. The Hamilton dump put Mittens ahead, with a ton of votes still out in Cleveland.

As noted above, it's over. Boy, Mittens must have been sweating!

I posted results from Medina's county BoE website upthread.  It's marginal for Romney.  Clermont hasn't reported anything but absentees on the AP and county's website.

Then it's really over unless Clermont goes 3-1 for Rick and that isn't happening of course. Mittens may be headed to a 15,000 vote margin. What came before was not what came next in these big city counties. Rick did better with the early vote for some reason.  CNN says with the Hamilton dump, Mittens is ahead by 3,000 at this point.  Wow!

[Torie]

Rick lost because he must have lost the Catholic vote by about 10 points as a guess. I have not looked at the exit polls. Maybe they have a different number, but that is my guess. Catholics as it were are going to nominate Romney.

[Torie]

Clermont will net Romney 892 votes overall when it reports, per the county's website.  That's a swing of 1068 from what the AP is currently showing, if I've done the math right.

Mittens may get as much as a 20,000 vote margin then. What is that - a 2% win?

[Torie]

CNN won't call it because they cannot be 100% sure that what came before in Cuyahoga did not shoot Mitt's wad; CNN cannot as it were exclude to a 100% certainty that what  is left is not heavy with home schooling fundamentalist types who will go heavy for Rick. Whatever.

[Torie]

Ohio SoS website has Romney leading in OH-01, 02, 06, 09, 10, 11, 13, 14 and 16 - 9 of the 16 CDs.  Santorum leads in the rest.  Which CDs didn't Santorum file a slate of delegates for?

If their OH-06 is the Ohio River CD, that strikes me as amazing. Are you sure? That is Santorum central.

[Torie]

How will Rick spin this Ohio result? Will he publicly urge Newt to drop out?

Santorum is the only candidate to not finish above 40% in any state (unless AK or ND surprises), so why should Gingrich drop out? Gingrich nearly got 50% in the second biggest state tonight...

Actually I thought Rick ran rather impressively everywhere relatively speaking - even in Georgia, where Newt's margin was pedestrian really. It was Newt who collapsed, which was why TN was not that close for example. (Thompson's endorsement of Newt obviously did not sweep his former constituents off their feet obviously.) Newt was invisible in Ohio. In Mass, he got 4%.  

[Torie]

Ohio SoS website has Romney leading in OH-01, 02, 06, 09, 10, 11, 13, 14 and 16 - 9 of the 16 CDs.  Santorum leads in the rest.  Which CDs didn't Santorum file a slate of delegates for?

If their OH-06 is the Ohio River CD, that strikes me as amazing. Are you sure? That is Santorum central.

That's what the Ohio SoS' website is showing.  It also doesn't even list Santorum in the OH-06 tally at all, placing Gingrich in second, so I wouldn't rely on it.

Is it showing vote totals, or just calling the CD's? Maybe they called OH-06 for Mittens because Rick did not file any delegate slate.  If so, that is "unfortunate."  

[Torie]

Is it showing vote totals, or just calling the CD's? Maybe they called OH-06 for Mittens because Rick did not file any delegate slate.  If so, that is "unfortunate."  

It's showing vote totals:

President - District 06 (R)
Candidate / Issue   % of Votes   Number Of Votes
Romney, Mitt (R)   40.80%   26,572
Gingrich, Newt (R)   31.42%   20,461
Paul, Ron (R)   19.21%   12,511
Perry, Rick (R)   5.74%   3,738
Huntsman, Jon (R)   2.83%   1,840

AP is reporting the same erroneous numbers.

I don't know whether Santorum filed a delegate slate in that CD.

He didn't. That was his major cf, because it should be his strongest CD. Crazy world we live in.

[Torie]

Mittens at the moment has 76% of the votes in Idaho. I guess that is what happens if you get all of the LDS and half the rest. Hey it rhymes!

[Torie]

I'm not really sure what to say about Obama's performance in the Oklahoma Democratic Primary.

If Mitt Romney ends up winning the nomination, something will have to give in Oklahoma.  Keep in mind, the Republican has won all 77 counties in both 2004 and 2008.  Looking at the results tonight, we are not that fond of Mitt Romney, but we are very disappointed in Barack Obama.  Will Mitt Romney be good enough to sweep all 77 Oklahoma counties, or will Barack Obama win a few counties?

Until I read your last sentence, I was thinking you might be wondering if Mittens could carry OK in November, in which event I was going to suggest that you need to up your meds.

[Torie]

CNN posts that Rick has 20% of the votes in Georgia, with 97% in, so a few delegates are hanging in the balance there.

And Mittens eks out the silver in OK over Rick.

[Torie]

CNN posts that Rick has 20% of the votes in Georgia, with 97% in, so a few delegates are hanging in the balance there.

Check Google, not CNN - Santorum is only at 19.6%, and therefore, outside of the threshold.

Ah, they round! They should not do that. So Mittens gets another couple of delegates.

[Torie]

In other news, Kaptur beats Dennis by 56% to 40%.  Congress will be a duller place, and I will mess his savoring his wife, for whom I have a fancy.

[Torie]

Super Tuesday is pretty much wrapped up. Not going to wait for Alaska to come in.

My caption on the event is up on the blog (http://www.yourelection.net/2012/03/romney-better-than-santorum-on-super-tuesday/)

Time for me to sign off.

Nicely written. The thing is, when you game this, with assumptions that are cautious for Mittens, he gets to within a 100 delegates of a majority at the end. And he has those extra 100 from the establishment "uncommitted" delegates. So the odds are low (something rather major will have to happen to dramatically change the game), that Mittens will not have an absolute majority, and even if he doesn't, it is hard to believe that everyone else will gang up on him and give the nomination to someone else. So it is really an issue of how long this goes on, and what it portends, plus or minus or wash, for the General election.

[Torie]

CNN calls Ohio for Romney.

CNN explained their delay by saying there were 30,000 uncounted late absentees and provisional ballots, and they finally decided given the 12,000 vote margin for Mittens in the bag, that it needed to be 60,000 left rather than 30,000 for Rick to have prayer, and given the 30,000 vote uncounted deficit, it was mathematically certain that Mittens had won.

Again, CNN gets an A+ for its coverage.

[Torie]

In other news, Kaptur beats Dennis by 56% to 40%.  Congress will be a duller place, and I will mess his savoring his wife, for whom I have a fancy.

You dirty dog.

Unfortunate, or fortunate, typo, depending on your point of view.