The Super Tuesday Results Thread

[Erc]

Not exactly bustling, but I was the 42nd to vote in my precinct this morning---but as it's extremely Democratic, I may have been one of the first Republicans to cast a ballot.  I'll be quite interested to see the overall Republican turnout here when the results come in.

[Erc]

Isn't Montana doing a primary this time instead of a caucus?

Yes, which is why Paul does not have a shot at Montana. Even a caucus though, I don't think he could have won. Yes he got 25% there in 2008, but he also did about as well in North Dakota and Washington in 2008 and only improved by a few points this year.

The primary is completely non-binding; the delegates are decided entirely the State Convention.  The County Central Committees decide who attends the State Convention.  This makes Montana the least democratic process this year (even the Wyoming caucuses had an effect this time around), but it presumably makes it harder for the Paulistas to take control (unless they already have taken control of all the County Committees, which I doubt they have).

[Erc]

Don't know if this has already been addressed, but are precinct/LD/caucus site/whatever results available for Alaska?  Or is the only thing reported the statewide result?

[Erc]

The AP says 14-13-13 in Oklahoma, I wonder where their numbers are coming from.

It could be a different interpretation of the rules.  The Green Papers, says:

-If one candidate receives more than 50% of the vote or only one candidate receives 15% or more of the vote, that candidate receives 3 delegates.
-Otherwise, if more than 1 candidate receives 15% of the vote, the candidate receiving the most votes receives 2 delegates and the candidate receiving the second most votes receives 1 delegate.
-Otherwise, the top 3 vote-getters receiving 15% or more of the vote each receive 1 delegate.

It could mean that if 3 candidates get more than 15%, each get 1 CD-level delegate.  If that's the case, the 15 CD delegates are split 5 a piece, which would give us the AP's results.

Well, under your interpretation, it is implied that only of the candidates tied in actual raw votes would the third paragraph come into play.

The APs interpretation is that if only two candidates get over 15% does the second paragraph apply, otherwise if three candidates get over 15%, the third paragraph applies.

Which do you think makes more sense?

The AP's interpretation makes more sense.  But I'd like to see the actual rules rather than rely on The Green Papers, which could be clearer.

The Green Papers is wrong in this case.  Rules are here if you want to poke through them yourself.

"If three or more presidential candidates receive 15 percent or more of such total vote in the district, the top three finishers in the District shall each be awarded one Delegate from that district."

[Erc]

Don't know if this has already been addressed, but are precinct/LD/caucus site/whatever results available for Alaska?  Or is the only thing reported the statewide result?

I have the results by House District and will post them when I get the chance.

[Erc]

I've put Alaska maps and a table with the results here: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=97330.msg3224472#msg3224472

Thank you very much!  I'll have some more reliable delegate numbers momentarily.

I assume there was just no vote held in LDs 37 & 40?  Understandable, Bethel and Barrow may not be pleasant places this time of year.

[Erc]

I've put Alaska maps and a table with the results here: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=97330.msg3224472#msg3224472

Thank you very much!  I'll have some more reliable delegate numbers momentarily.

I assume there was just no vote held in LDs 37 & 40?  Understandable, Bethel and Barrow may not be pleasant places this time of year.

I believe so.

Depending on what is done with LDs 37 & 40, there is some wiggle room with the delegate results.  Remember, the delegate allocations are based on Tuesday's vote, but they are weighted by district, so there's some ambiguity about what to do with the 0.86 delegates that those two districts correspond to.

The media-reported numbers (and my preliminary numbers) are in line with just treating them as uncommitted.  If they are left out of the calculus entirely, Paul gains a delegate from Gingrich.  If they hold votes later in the month (in theory they could at any point between now and the 24th), it's possible for any candidate (or two) to gain a single delegate from Gingrich.