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Author Topic: GA-CNN/ORC: Obama, GOP candidate tied  (Read 1396 times)
Senator Griffin (LAB-NB)
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« on: March 05, 2012, 05:47:48 pm »
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"Suppose the presidential election were being held today. Would you say you are more likely to vote for Barack Obama or for the Republican Party’s candidate for president? If unsure as of today, who do you lean more toward?"

Registered Voters:

Obama - 48
GOP - 48

All Respondents:

Obama - 48
GOP - 44

Poll PDF (pg. 3)

Based on interviews with 2,022 respondents, including 1,775 registered voters.
Sampling Error: +/- 2 for all, +/- 2.5 for registered voters.
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marvelrobbins
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« Reply #1 on: March 05, 2012, 05:54:16 pm »
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Oh Man.I thought there was small chance of Obama being competive In Georgia If the election
goes his way but I never thought of something like this.
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Emperor Scott
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« Reply #2 on: March 05, 2012, 06:21:27 pm »
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...Is this really a CNN poll?
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Senator Griffin (LAB-NB)
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« Reply #3 on: March 05, 2012, 06:47:56 pm »
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It would appear that way:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/03/05/cnnorc-poll-march-1-4-georgia-ohio/
http://blogs.ajc.com/political-insider-jim-galloway/2012/03/05/your-morning-jolt-new-poll-has-newt-gingrich-near-50-percent/

It also polls Ohio, which shows Obama ahead by 4 right now.
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« Reply #4 on: March 05, 2012, 07:41:11 pm »
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I'm doubtful, but it was also hard to believe the 2008 polls of NC and IN. Guess we'lll have to wait and see.
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« Reply #5 on: March 05, 2012, 07:50:27 pm »
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As I have said before, Georgia's growth due to northern emigrants has not been entirely stopped by the recession.  Meanwhile, four years of high school graduates have entered the pool of voting and youth as the GOP base passes away.  This poll, while probably a little biased towards Obama, is illustrative of real demographic trends.
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« Reply #6 on: March 05, 2012, 07:52:51 pm »
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And when Obama got 47% in 2004, it's not that surprising to see a poll where he's at 48% now. I wouldn't be at all surprised if he got 48% on election day, which would of course still likely mean that he lost the state.
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« Reply #7 on: March 05, 2012, 08:41:03 pm »
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Was I right, or was I right yall?
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marvelrobbins
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« Reply #8 on: March 05, 2012, 09:41:43 pm »
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The Intresting thing Is romney may have to spend a bit of money here.

In 2008 the only campagining Obama did was an ad In last week and he still got 47 percent of the
vote.He did better In Georgia than Arizona.

If any new southern states would become competive I have always believed Georgia would be
It.Still longshot of actully carrying Georgia but being competive here Is actully a victory for
Democrats.It's funny how the Black candiate has done better than Gore and Kerry In Georgia.
Who knows perhapes In 2016 It will become a battleground state.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #9 on: March 06, 2012, 01:39:40 am »

And in OH, Obama leads a Generic Republican by 49-45.

But because there is no Generic Republican, Obama's probably ahead by 10 right now.
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« Reply #10 on: March 06, 2012, 06:52:21 am »
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When the next poll out of Texas comes out, can we expect the same, after Tennessee and Georgia?

Or is Texas still too much of a Republican, conservative state?
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« Reply #11 on: March 06, 2012, 08:40:49 am »
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... and "Mr. Generic Republican" isn't running.
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« Reply #12 on: March 06, 2012, 09:06:42 am »
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Mr Generic Republican Is Mitt Romney
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« Reply #13 on: March 06, 2012, 10:53:27 am »
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Mr Generic Republican Is Mitt Romney

...If there ever was a Generic Repulican, it would be Mittens.
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« Reply #14 on: March 06, 2012, 11:27:38 am »
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Not sure that I fully trust this poll, especially looking at the crosstabs, but if this is valid, then that's awesome.
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« Reply #15 on: March 06, 2012, 10:44:00 pm »
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A RINO could probably beat President Obama in 2012 -- if one were available, or at least that's how I saw things a couple months ago.

Mr. Generic  Republican is now in hibernation and won't wake up until the middle of November. Romney, Santorum, and Gingrich are all weaker than the average Republican. In view of the recent Marist polls in Ohio and Virginia that show those states of near-mean partisanship going firmly for President Obama by double-digit or near-double-digit margins, Georgia looks like a possible pick-up for the President.
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Senator Griffin (LAB-NB)
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« Reply #16 on: March 07, 2012, 02:22:42 am »
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There are some interesting currents moving about in the state and I think Georgia has - at least in demography - the ability to go even more Democratic than it did in 2008, but it might still not be enough to flip the state.

The Republican Party in Georgia doesn't have the best political infrastructure, either; they mainly just took advantage of the Democratic Party imploding in rural areas but in a large amount of statewide elections (when the candidate is white and moderate), Republicans don't move above 55% so they are a rather weak majority. The Democratic Party is heavily organized inside I-285.

The good thing is the general demographic shifts will move Georgia into swing-state status by 2016, with or without party intervention.

Based on some preliminary projections, it appears that Georgia's 2012 Republican Primary dipped 7-8% from 2008 levels. Another small good sign to add to many.

I ran some numbers - before the most recent uptick of Democratic preference in the past few weeks - that gave a range of where Obama stands in GA. I would say even more so now, his baseline in Georgia in 2012 is no more than a half-point below his 2008 tally.
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Senator Griffin (LAB-NB)
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« Reply #17 on: March 16, 2012, 05:46:09 am »
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Two recent polls have given Georgia Democrats hope. The first, by CNN/Time magazine just before the March 6 primaries, had Obama and an unnamed Republican opponent tied at 48 percent. The second, released this week by the Democratic polling firm 20/20 Insight, showed Obama leading Republican presidential hopeful Rick Santorum 47 percent to 44 percent, and getting beat 46 percent to 45 percent by both Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney. The poll of 773 registered voters had a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points, making each scenario a virtual tossup.

I might actually can find out who runs this polling group, but I can't find any information at first glance other than it being referenced in a number of different polls over the past couple of years. The site is an inactive Blogspot.
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« Reply #18 on: March 16, 2012, 06:44:11 pm »
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Two recent polls have given Georgia Democrats hope. The first, by CNN/Time magazine just before the March 6 primaries, had Obama and an unnamed Republican opponent tied at 48 percent. The second, released this week by the Democratic polling firm 20/20 Insight, showed Obama leading Republican presidential hopeful Rick Santorum 47 percent to 44 percent, and getting beat 46 percent to 45 percent by both Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney. The poll of 773 registered voters had a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points, making each scenario a virtual tossup.

I might actually can find out who runs this polling group, but I can't find any information at first glance other than it being referenced in a number of different polls over the past couple of years. The site is an inactive Blogspot.

20/20 Insight is run by Chris Huttman, who was the 2008 Democratic candidate for Georgia House District 81 (Doraville area).
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Senator Griffin (LAB-NB)
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« Reply #19 on: March 17, 2012, 12:57:15 am »
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Two recent polls have given Georgia Democrats hope. The first, by CNN/Time magazine just before the March 6 primaries, had Obama and an unnamed Republican opponent tied at 48 percent. The second, released this week by the Democratic polling firm 20/20 Insight, showed Obama leading Republican presidential hopeful Rick Santorum 47 percent to 44 percent, and getting beat 46 percent to 45 percent by both Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney. The poll of 773 registered voters had a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points, making each scenario a virtual tossup.

I might actually can find out who runs this polling group, but I can't find any information at first glance other than it being referenced in a number of different polls over the past couple of years. The site is an inactive Blogspot.

20/20 Insight is run by Chris Huttman, who was the 2008 Democratic candidate for Georgia House District 81 (Doraville area).

Thanks for that.
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