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Author Topic: Challenge: Implement the Wyoming Rule  (Read 2900 times)
Yelnoc
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« on: March 05, 2012, 07:39:23 pm »
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Wyoming Rule

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The Wyoming Rule is a proposal to increase the size of the United States House of Representatives so that the standard Representative-to-population ratio would be that of the smallest entitled unit, which is currently Wyoming. ... However, the 2010 United States Census saw Wyoming's population increase by a greater percentage than the U.S. as a whole; as a result, the required House size to implement the Wyoming Rule was reduced to 547.

Redraw the Electoral College map to account for twelve new electoral votes to the 50 states.  If you're feeling really ambitious, you could always make state level CD maps in the new, expanded states.
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« Reply #1 on: March 05, 2012, 08:22:32 pm »
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Daily Kos Elections did this for several states.

elections.dailykos.com
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« Reply #2 on: March 05, 2012, 11:33:47 pm »
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Here's LA and AR.

Under the WY plan, LA would squeeze out 8 seats. From what I've watched during the redistricting process here last year, I'm pretty sure the Republicans would have drawn another minority district, going for a solid 6-2 overall.



LA-01 (blue)
R+29
75/23 McCain
Scalise retains his base in northern Jefferson parish and the disgustingly red North Shore.
SAFE R

LA-02 (pink)
D+19
72/26 Obama
Richmond keeps most of Orleans parish and now reaches to LaPlace. 52.7% Black VAP.
SAFE D

LA-03 (aqua)
R+22
68/30 McCain
Obama severely underperformed state Democrats in this coastal district. All in all, similar to the current 3rd; Landry keeps his New Iberia base and should be in good shape.
SAFE R

LA-04 (salmon)
R+13
59/40 McCain
Flemming takes the weakest of the Republican districts and the only one under 60% McCain. Still, he barely won an open-seat contest in 2008 but is very rich. It would take another 2008-like wave to make this district a tossup.
LIKELY R

LA-05 (teal)
R+18
64/35 McCain
This is ancestrally Dem turf that has been trending the wrong way. Alexander is should be fine.
SAFE R

LA-06 (lime)
R+28
74/25 McCain
Like the actual redistricting plan, Cassidy gets a much friendlier district as he sheds Democrats in the delta and in Baton Rouge. This becomes one of the reddest seats in the country.
SAFE R

LA-07 (grey)
R+18
64/34 McCain
Boustany would actually be drawn out of his district, thanks to a 3-way split of Lafayette parish. Still, he should be entrenched enough to easily win here.
SAFE R

LA-08 (purple)
D+10
63/36 Obama
This is the second Democratic vote sink. It could probably get more Democratic by extending up to Shreveport, but I thought that would have been too ugly. 54.6% Black VAP.
SAFE D

Overall, Landrieu would have won CDs 2, 4, 8 will probably narrowly winning 3.

AR would get bumped up to 5 seats. This is about as close to a clean Democratic gerrymander as you can get in AR.


AR-01 (dark blue)
My hunch is that this gets a few points more Democratic as it sheds some northern counties that voted for Crawford in 2010. Between Causey and Ross, this district may have actually voted Democratic in 2010. I'd say tossup/slight D with the right conservaDem.

AR-02 (green)
AR-02 drops the red anchors of White and Saline counties. Bill Halter would probably actually be favored here against Tim Griffin.

AR-03 (red)
The current third is split quite evenly between the red and purple districts. However, this contains Fayetteville, home of Dustin McDaniel; he's probably the only Democrat who's popular enough to win here. Tossup/Slight D with McDaniel, Safe R otherwise.

AR-04 (salmon)
Like AR-01 or LA-05, this district went strongly for Bill Clinton, but has been trending strongly R ever since. Most counties here are Dem-leaning locally, but the presence of Miller, Saline and Union tilts it towards Team R. Safe D if Ross were running, Lean R in open-seat contest.

AR-05 (purple)
Probably the most Republican district in the state. It begins in the solidly red northwestern counties and then arcs around CDs 2 and 3 to include several GOP bastions; namely Lonoke, White and Cleburn counties.


So, between AR and LA, Republicans would have, in a normal year, probably 9 of the 13 seats. Democrats would be guaranteed LA-02, LA-08 and probably AR-02. However, they could win as many as 4 Arkansas seats with the right candidates.


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Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #3 on: March 22, 2012, 11:52:51 pm »
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Daily Kos Elections did this for several states.

elections.dailykos.com

I searched the DKE site and could not find it on their.

I am specifically looking for the exact number of districts that would be apportioned for each state under this system.
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« Reply #4 on: March 23, 2012, 06:48:27 am »
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I am specifically looking for the exact number of districts that would be apportioned for each state under this system.

This page lists the number of Representatives each state would have under the Wyoming Rule (and also, amusingly, writes out the number of legislators each state would receive if the entire country was apportioned like the NH House. 90k+ Congressmen in all, that'd certainly be an entertaining disaster).
« Last Edit: March 23, 2012, 06:55:45 am by Bacon King, VP »Logged

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« Reply #5 on: March 23, 2012, 09:06:43 am »
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Here's how I see Georgia's General Assembly drawing a map with seventeen districts. I'm assuming they'll still try to gun for Barrow. The biggest difference is the need for an extra VRA district in the Atlanta metro; the map still manages to be 12-5 in favor of the GOP.



1st: 63% white; 54% McCain.
Somewhat close but still safe for Kingston. Making it any safer would have either required some atrocious gerrymandering or letting Barrow keep his seat.

2nd: 50% black; 60% Obama.
Safe district for Bishop. VRA district. An alternative would be to cut out everything south of Albany and take in Macon instead, but that would give Austin Scott a lot of risky territory.

3rd: 72% white; 66% McCain.
Safe seat for Westmoreland.

4th: 54% black; 79% Obama
Hank Johnson's seat, VRA.

5th: 54% black; 82% Obama
John Lewis's seat, VRA.

6th: 60% white; 61% McCain
Tom Price gets a safe seat now without having to worry about the Forsyth County GOP! (Apparently, cutting Forsyth in half was intentional in both the 2006 and 2012 maps).

7th: 60% white; 61% McCain
Rob Woodall's district goes out into the exurb rather than Forsyth Co. to shore his district against impending demographic change because this works better with the smaller districts.

8th: 68% white, 66% McCain
Austin Scott's district is safe. He'd probably like this district better than the one he actually has, because here he wouldn't have to worry about the Houston County GOP fielding a primary challenge against him.

9th: 83% white, 74% McCain
State GOP's super special Hall County district for whichever buddy of Nathan Deal and Casey Cagle ends up running.

10th: 67% white, 56% McCain
Paul Broun district: it's safe enough so he won't lose, but has the symbolism of keeping both of the liberal college towns even though his district shrinks considerably. Just the State GOP reminding Broun that they hate him.

11th: 70% white, 62% McCain
Gingrey's district stays solid thanks to Cobb County suburbia, and helps Price out by grabbing up some potentially swingy areas in Sandy Springs and north Dekalb.

12th: 59% white, 54% McCain
This map's version of the anti-Barrow district. Likely R.

13th: 51% black, 65% Obama
David Scott keeps a safe district. VRA.

14th: 83% white, 70% McCain
Tom Graves would certainly appreciate this district.

15th (orange): 82% white, 72% McCain
First new district; heavily GOP exurbs. Forsyth and Cherokee Counties would both probably appreciate not being split in half, but their favorite sons would certainly have a bitter primary fight here.

16th (medium green): 61% white, 57% McCain.
It's pretty easy to cancel out Macon by putting it in a district with both Houston County and some Atlanta exurbs. Not really much potential for a Marshall comeback here, though I wouldn't be surprised if he tried anyway.

17th (purplish blue): 50% black, 67% Obama.
New VRA district both to ensure preclearance that also serves as a convenient Democratic vote sink. That segment of Fulton County in this district is almost identical to Kasim Reed's old State Senate district; he could run for Congress here if he got tired of Mayoring.
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« Reply #6 on: March 23, 2012, 12:28:43 pm »
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Here's my take on what NJ could've been, assuming a similar process- nonpartian mediator drawing the maps, with an eye toward both incumbent protection AND minimizing town splits/ugly gerrymandering.  The result is on balance good for Dems, because both the 2000 and 2010 maps heavily favored Republicans over and above their actual strength in the state- basically they'd be favored in all of the new districts.  It's 10-6, but two of the Dem and one of the R districts could fall.  



District 1: 62% Obama, 60% Dem.  Andrews' district is essentially split in two and unpacked a bit: South Jersey would need a new district for sure and the shape of 2 and 3 ensures it's Andrews who gets split.  Still safe for him.

District 2: 55% Obama, 54% Dem.  Despite those numbers this is a Republican district due to popular incumbent (LoBiondo).  The South Jersey district is always going to have this light-blue hue no matter what you do, and LoBiondo is enough of a popular moderate that he'll have no problem.  I'm still counting this as the losable R district, in case of retirement or purity primary.  A partisan Dem gerrymander would take this into Camden to try and flip it.

District 3: 46% Obama, 45% Dem.  Runyan's district with all the blue parts excised and given to 14.  I still kinda dislike the Barrens crossing, but I'd expect a court to keep it.

District 4: 44% Obama, 42% Dem.  Super-safe, and little change, for Smith.  A truly neutral court map wouldn't include Hamilton, but it's his home.

District 5: 44% Obama, 41% Dem.  Garrett's district barely changes, despite losing population it just retreats from Bergen a tiny bit.  Safe R.

District 6: 57% Obama, 56% Dem.  The ugliest district on the map by far, but any Pallone-protecting district will do that.  Splits Middletown with Smith and Old Bridge with Holt.  And still could possibly fall in a wave.  Obviously a Republican map would eliminate this district.

District 7: 48% Obama, 44% Dem.  Gets safer for Lance, withdrawing from Middlesex.  A fair map might take it further out of Union, an aggressive Dem gerry might even try to eliminate it entirely but that's probably unwise.

District 8: 58% Obama, 56% Dem.  Pascrell's district has to be cut in two in order to accommodate a second Hispanic district in North Jersey, this is the swingier suburban (and whiter) portion.  Clifton is split to accomodate NJ-16.  Mostly suburban Essex now, with suburban southern Passaic and two towns in Union.  Could fall in a wave.  A Republican gerrymander might try to crack this district to make four Republican North Jersey districts, but it would be hard.

District 9: 60% Obama, 61% Dem.  Clean all-Bergen district for Rothman.  Safe D.

District 10:  88% Obama, 84% Dem, 57% AA.  Splits Newark, Kearny, and Jersey City, and withdraws from Elizabeth entirely for the sake of neat lines.  Safe D of course.

District 11: 46% Obama, 40% Dem.  All Freylingheusen's district has to do is drop the silly tail in Somerset, and take Fairfield for population equality.  Safe R.

District 12: 62% Obama, 59% Dem.  Obviously more based on Holt's old district than his new one, because we need to make room for an actual Middlesex district here.  Cleaned up and compacted a bunch, Safe D.

District 13: 71% Obama, 71% Dem, 45% Hispanic.  Sires' district is now just Hudson, Elizabeth, and the Ironbound, it's still not 50% Hispanic by VAP but the new VRA district is, so it's all good.  Newark and JC are split.

Distirct 14: 64% Obama, 60% Dem.  The new South Jersey district is a Camden-Burlington mix centered on Cherry Hill, designed to relieve pressure on Runyan and also unpack South Jersey Dems a bit.  Shelley Adler would love it.

District 15: 65% Obama, 62% Dem, 46% White, 22% Asian.  It's about time Middlesex got its own district.  Safe D.

District 16: 72% Obama, 73% Dem, 50% Hispanic.  53% by total population; connects Paterson, North Newark, and North Bergen by way of the Meadowlands.  Splits Newark, Kearny, Jersey City, and Clifton- all of the split towns that aren't involved in the Pallonemander.  Safe D.
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« Reply #7 on: March 23, 2012, 01:10:28 pm »
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I'm working on NC with 17 seats. 'Looks like the best Republicans could do without overreaching is 12-5.
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« Reply #8 on: March 23, 2012, 03:14:50 pm »
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Here's my take on what NJ could've been, assuming a similar process- nonpartian mediator drawing the maps, with an eye toward both incumbent protection AND minimizing town splits/ugly gerrymandering.  The result is on balance good for Dems, because both the 2000 and 2010 maps heavily favored Republicans over and above their actual strength in the state- basically they'd be favored in all of the new districts.  It's 10-6, but two of the Dem and one of the R districts could fall.  




I'd suggest rotating a few things in South Jersey. The new Burlington-Camden district is ugly. Here's what I'd do to fix it:

1. Retreat NJ-2 out of Cumberland County in favor of southern Ocean County. That would do a better job of ensuring LoBiondo's seat stays Republican if he retires. My unfinished attempt keeps Vineland and Millville in NJ-2, but dumps the rest of Cumberland.
2. The new South Jersey seat would consist of the remainder of Cumberland, Salem, Gloucester, and Southern Camden. In other words, the perfect district for Stephen Sweeney.
3. Andrews' seat includes northern Camden and northern Burlington (up to Burlington Twp.). It's a bit less ugly this way, and I think that places like Willingboro and Burlington belong with the city of Camden more than with Voorhees and Gloucester Twp.
4. Runyan's seat picks up a little more of Northern Burlington to compensate for the loss of southern Ocean.

I'm also messing around with North Jersey, but I won't be able to finish until after the weekend.
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« Reply #9 on: March 23, 2012, 07:18:44 pm »

The DK website only did a crude rounding to get the number of seats by the Wyoming rule. To do it right I first divided the US (minus DC) apportionment population (which includes overseas person not used in redistricting) by the population of WY to get 544 seats. Then I used the official algorithm to get the apportionment for each state. This is the resulting map.

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« Reply #10 on: March 23, 2012, 08:13:18 pm »
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The DK website only did a crude rounding to get the number of seats by the Wyoming rule. To do it right I first divided the US (minus DC) apportionment population (which includes overseas person not used in redistricting) by the population of WY to get 544 seats. Then I used the official algorithm to get the apportionment for each state. This is the resulting map.


If the objective is to have each representative, represent a Wyoming-sized district, why calculate the overall size of the House?  Why not just divide the population of the state by Wyoming's population and round?
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« Reply #11 on: March 23, 2012, 08:58:31 pm »

The DK website only did a crude rounding to get the number of seats by the Wyoming rule. To do it right I first divided the US (minus DC) apportionment population (which includes overseas person not used in redistricting) by the population of WY to get 544 seats. Then I used the official algorithm to get the apportionment for each state. This is the resulting map.


If the objective is to have each representative, represent a Wyoming-sized district, why calculate the overall size of the House?  Why not just divide the population of the state by Wyoming's population and round?


The usual interpretation I've seen is to make the average CD equal in population to the smallest state (WY). What you suggest doesn't necessarily result in the average coming out correctly. To get it right means dividing the US population by WY, and then what remains is the usual apportionment problem. I used the current system, but other methods could be used instead.
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« Reply #12 on: March 25, 2012, 01:23:16 pm »
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Here's New York, done as nonpartisan as possible:




NY-01 - 53.3 Obama, 45.6 McCain
NY-02 - 49.9 Obama, 49.2 McCain
NY-03 - 51.5 Obama, 47.7 McCain
NY-04 - 52.3 Obama, 46.9 McCain
NY-05 - 58.9 Obama, 40.5 McCain
NY-06 - 90.1 Obama, 9.6 McCain, 54.5 black VAP
NY-07 - 64.1 Obama, 35.2 McCain, 40.9 Asian VAP, 36.6 white VAP
NY-08 - 82.0 Obama, 17.4 McCain, 60.3 Hispanic VAP
NY-09 - 56.7 McCain, 42.6 Obama
NY-10 - 92.9 Obama, 6.7 McCain, 54.4 black VAP
NY-11 - 90.3 Obama, 9.3 McCain, 54.5 black VAP
NY-12 - 50.0 McCain, 49.2 Obama
NY-13 - 85.5 Obama, 13.7 McCain, 38.9 white VAP, 22.9 black VAP, 18.1 Hispanic VAP, 18.1 Asian VAP
NY-14 - 70.4 Obama, 28.6 McCain, 48.5 white VAP, 22.7 Hispanic VAP, 21.7 Asian VAP
NY-15 - 84.5 Obama, 14.5 McCain
NY-16 - 93.6 Obama, 5.8 McCain, 52.6 Hispanic VAP
NY-17 - 81.2 Obama, 18.0 McCain
NY-18 - 93.0 Obama, 6.7 McCain, 58.9 Hispanic VAP
NY-19 - 82.6 Obama, 16.8 McCain, 50.4 Hispanic VAP
NY-20 - 73.7 Obama, 25.7 McCain, 35.2 white VAP, 35.0 black VAP, 23.4 Hispanic VAP
NY-21 - 61.3 Obama, 37.8 McCain
NY-22 - 51.5 Obama, 47.7 McCain
NY-23 - 53.2 Obama, 45.6 McCain
NY-24 - 53.7 Obama, 44.5 McCain
NY-25 - 58.6 Obama, 39.6 McCain
NY-26 - 54.0 Obama, 44.4 McCain
NY-27 - 51.8 McCain, 46.4 Obama
NY-28 - 58.2 Obama, 39.9 McCain
NY-29 - 54.6 Obama, 43.5 McCain
NY-30 - 51.5 McCain, 47.1 Obama
NY-31 - 62.1 Obama, 36.6 McCain
NY-32 - 54.7 McCain, 43.6 Obama
NY-33 - 50.7 McCain, 47.7 Obama
NY-34 - 65.8 Obama, 32.6 McCain
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« Reply #13 on: March 26, 2012, 08:45:04 pm »
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Here's Tennesee, 9-2 Republican:



TN-01 - 70.8 McCain
TN-02 - 63.8 McCain
TN-03 - 68.2 McCain
TN-04 - 63.0 McCain
TN-05 - 63.7 Obama
TN-06 - 64.2 McCain
TN-07 - 64.1 McCain
TN-08 - 61.6 McCain
TN-09 - 79.0 Obama, 62.8 black VAP
TN-10 - 68.8 McCain
TN-11 - 61.5 McCain
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« Reply #14 on: March 27, 2012, 07:05:42 pm »
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Kentucky, bipartisan gerrymander to protect incumbents and add a Republican seat (light purple) and seat that Democrats could win (grey).

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« Reply #15 on: March 28, 2012, 01:33:40 am »
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Here's a 12-5 NC:



This could possibly be 11-6 if McIntyre wanted to be a team player; he'd run in the 7th and let Kissell have the safe 8th.
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« Reply #16 on: April 04, 2012, 03:08:16 am »
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Here's Ohio.  Could go 15D-5R or 8D-12R depending on the year.




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« Reply #17 on: April 04, 2012, 03:20:49 am »
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Very nice swingy Ohio.

Whats the black VAP in CD11?
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« Reply #18 on: April 04, 2012, 04:03:05 pm »
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I just did this for New York (6 seat Connecticut isn't very interesting).




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« Reply #19 on: April 04, 2012, 08:37:59 pm »
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Very nice swingy Ohio.

Whats the black VAP in CD11?

I forgot to record it exactly but it I remember it was between 55-60%.  Also, the East Columbus and Cincinnati districts were around 30% black VAP if I remember right so they it is likely they could elect black representatives as well.
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« Reply #20 on: April 22, 2012, 08:06:36 pm »
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Here's another stab at NC. This would be the Democratic map.



Pretty likely 11-6 D with Shuler and McIntyre.
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« Reply #21 on: April 26, 2012, 08:24:10 pm »
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Here's OK with 7 seats.

I'd say its 6-1 R. Democrats could at least be competitive in the 7th.



A TX Democratic gerrymander with 45 seats is also on the way.
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« Reply #22 on: April 27, 2012, 02:43:49 pm »
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Here's OK with 7 seats.

I'd say its 6-1 R. Democrats could at least be competitive in the 7th.



A TX Democratic gerrymander with 45 seats is also on the way.

I don't know much about Oklahoma politics but if you ignore the '08 presidential numbers I would say that almost any of those districts could be won by a legitimate Blue Dog.  Granted, the Blue Dogs are dying out pretty rapidly but most of them typically can win in districts where the typical D-R split is less than ten points in favor of the Republicans.
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« Reply #23 on: April 27, 2012, 02:54:24 pm »
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I don't know much about Oklahoma politics but if you ignore the '08 presidential numbers I would say that almost any of those districts could be won by a legitimate Blue Dog.  Granted, the Blue Dogs are dying out pretty rapidly but most of them typically can win in districts where the typical D-R split is less than ten points in favor of the Republicans.

Yeah, these districts could all possibly be competitive with a conservative enough Democrat. I think CD1 and CD4 would be the two most likely to stick with the Republicans. Democrats would probably win CD7. The only district that is actually trending D is the 3rd.
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« Reply #24 on: August 25, 2012, 05:53:41 pm »
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Sorry to BUMP another old tread, but I forgot that I did a Wyoming Rule TX but never got around to posting it.

State:


North:


South:


DFW: (Martin Frost would be proud of my work here Wink )


Houston:


Statistics:


If the Democrats recruited the right candidates, they could have a 26-19 delegation advantage with this map.
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