Oklahoma Democratic Primary

[Tender Branson]

I think many of Richardson's and Rogers' voters would probably vote for Obama in a general, without knowing what Richardson and Rogers actually stand for issue wise (are they more liberal than Obama or not ?)

[Tender Branson]

Green Papers says Randall Terry will get 6 delegates at the DNC.

What about this hypothetical scenario ?

Obama dies in a plane crash between now and the convention.

Does Biden automatically become the Dem. candidate ? Or is Terry automatically becoming their candidate ?

What if Biden also dies ? Will Terry be automatically the Dem. candidate or can the other delegates choose someone else ?

[GM Griffin]

Green Papers says Randall Terry will get 6 delegates at the DNC.

What about this hypothetical scenario ?

Obama dies in a plane crash between now and the convention.

Does Biden automatically become the Dem. candidate ? Or is Terry automatically becoming their candidate ?

What if Biden also dies ? Will Terry be automatically the Dem. candidate or can the other delegates choose someone else ?

I would guess that Obama's delegates would be freed to vote for whomever. I may not have it exact, but I believe half of the total delegates in the Democratic nominating process are the superdelegates that are not tied to anybody, so theoretically all you need is one elector casting for the preferred candidate. I couldn't see a scenario like that where Joe Biden or a "platinum" Democratic candidate would get less than 75% of the delegates.

[Reginald]

I think many of Richardson's and Rogers' voters would probably vote for Obama in a general, without knowing what Richardson and Rogers actually stand for issue wise (are they more liberal than Obama or not ?)

Don't know too much about Richardson at all, but I remember reading somewhere that he is in fact quite liberal.

As for Rogers, pictured below:



I anticipate that any attempt to classify him as a typical candidate, or a typical human being, would be futile.

[Meeker]

I am sure the DNC will modify the convention rules so as to deny either of these nutters actual delegates.

[Mr. Morden]

Green Papers says Randall Terry will get 6 delegates at the DNC.

What about this hypothetical scenario ?

Obama dies in a plane crash between now and the convention.

Does Biden automatically become the Dem. candidate ? Or is Terry automatically becoming their candidate ?

What if Biden also dies ? Will Terry be automatically the Dem. candidate or can the other delegates choose someone else ?

The delegates become free agents if Obama dies between now and the convention, no?  And why would Biden automatically become the presidential nominee?  Obama's delegates are bound to Obama, not Biden.  Biden's name isn't on the ballot in any of these primaries, since they're primaries for determining the presidential nominee, not the VP nominee.

[Proud Lieberal from Northeast]

Barack Obama
Randall Terry
Jim Rogers

[Landslide Lyndon]

Why on earth are those retards still registered Democrats?

[Communists For McCain]

Hilarious, but all too expected, really. Jim Rogers is a perennial congressional candidate here, so that could partially explain something, but then again, this is Oklahoma we're talking about here.

What % of the Democratic vote did McCain get in '08?

CNN says he got a full third of Democrats; 19% of liberals.

19% of liberals.

Keep in mind that they were polling liberals in Oklahoma.
The "liberals" probably believe that gay people should be able to rent apartments, Muslims are people too, maybe going to Iraq wasn't such a great idea, and the Bush Tax Cuts were a good compromise.

[PASOK Leader Hashemite]

Joklahoma.

[Proud Lieberal from Northeast]

Well, at least Democratic county map won't be in just one color.

[CaDan]

Got to love the "tolerance" from the forum democrats toward fellow democrats, just because they dare to vote differently in the primary than they.

How amazingly "big tent" and "progressive."

[mondale84]

Got to love the "tolerance" from the forum democrats toward fellow democrats, just because they dare to vote differently in the primary than they.

How amazingly "big tent" and "progressive."

They're voting against Obama because he is "Marxist, baby-eating, Kenyan." If there were genuine displeasure and an across-the-board desire among Democrats for a different candidate, his %s in other states would be around this level as well. This is not the case, ergo OK is the joke state of the cycle.

Note, we haven't gone up in arms when Obama "only" won 88% of the vote in Missouri, or the 87% of the vote in NH. Such percentages are more mainstream, 57% is not.

[izixs]

Green Papers says Randall Terry will get 6 delegates at the DNC.

What about this hypothetical scenario ?

Obama dies in a plane crash between now and the convention.

Does Biden automatically become the Dem. candidate ? Or is Terry automatically becoming their candidate ?

What if Biden also dies ? Will Terry be automatically the Dem. candidate or can the other delegates choose someone else ?

If Obama didn't make it to the convention his delegates would indeed be up for grabs. Terry would be a non-factor as most the delegates would go to the new incumbent president (Biden). This is very likely as not only would Biden like to be president, and thus would run, but also it seems very unlikely that Obama delegates would go for anyone else. They don't pick these folks off the street, these are loyalists to the campaign.

If Biden were to also die (...president Boehner?!?) then yes the delegates would be up for grabs. But Terry or what ever nobody would still be a non-issue. Hillary Clinton might step up to bat, and if so, would be the favorite to sweep most the delegates. If she does not, then a popular consensus candidate that was friendly with the administration would likely come forward and win support of the convention. There would be an outside chance of more than one coming out like such, with possibly a more outsider figure factoring in. But in such a setup, that outsider would be more a Russ Feingold type character. Someone Dems actually know and can get behind on the issues.

And no, super delegates are an annoying large fraction of the delegates in the Democratic Party, but they are far from the majority (I think there was around 400 of them, compared to 4000ish total delegates, but you can look that up yourself, I'm being lazy).

[J. J.]

can anyone explain WTF is happening in OK

Obama only at 52.4%

A lot of that is just a protest vote.  It is to be expected.

What is the final result?

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

I think you could probably consider Richardson as being to the left of Obama.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Darcy_Richardson

Whether most of the people realized he was or not, ...err... I'm not hopeful.

[Wrecking Ball and Chain]

I am sure the DNC will modify the convention rules so as to deny either of these nutters actual delegates.

So from I read they already did for Terry on Jan. 27 issuing a declaration he is not a bona fide Democrat and is not eligible for delegates.

It's a bit harder to argue that for Rogers who was a Democratic Senate candidate, I say let him have his delegates. But if Terry's were seated we'd have to wonder what they would do on the convention floor.

[Taft]

Green Papers says Randall Terry will get 6 delegates at the DNC.

What about this hypothetical scenario ?

Obama dies in a plane crash between now and the convention.

Does Biden automatically become the Dem. candidate ? Or is Terry automatically becoming their candidate ?

What if Biden also dies ? Will Terry be automatically the Dem. candidate or can the other delegates choose someone else ?

I would guess that Obama's delegates would be freed to vote for whomever. I may not have it exact, but I believe half of the total delegates in the Democratic nominating process are the superdelegates that are not tied to anybody, so theoretically all you need is one elector casting for the preferred candidate. I couldn't see a scenario like that where Joe Biden or a "platinum" Democratic candidate would get less than 75% of the delegates.

Terry's got a couple of formally pledged delegates, but they'll probably be revoked (sort of like what happened with LaRouche in '96 and 2000...he won delegates from states in those contests (VA in one and AR in the other, IIRC).

What is more interesting in some ways is whether Rogers gets 15% in one of the CDs.  He's on 13.8%, but he also won three counties (apparently; I'm reading that Terry only won 12 of the 15 dissenting counties), so he could threshold in a district somewhere (remember Dems allocate most delegates by district and not statewide).  I think it will be harder to declare Jim Rogers "not a Democrat" than Terry considering that he won a bona fide statewide primary as one before and that his name isn't Alvin Green.

In light of this...would it be possible for the atlas here to actually include a map of this particular Democratic primary?

****************

Another point for consideration: Obama has opponents on the ballot in WV, KY, LA, AR, and TX.  Anybody want to take bets that one or more of the "miscellaneous" candidates thresholds somewhere else?  In particular, I'm thinking of WV (where John Edwards got like 10% in '08 even though he'd been out of the race for three months at that point because about 53% of the last-minute deciders decided to blow a raspberry...check the CNN exits from WV then; it's rather amusing), AR (LaRouche precedent), and LA.

[I left.]

It's time to burn Oklahoma to the ground.

It kinda looks like it already has been....at least it looked that way to me.

[rob in cal]

Personally, I like the idea of an incumbent President facing a primary challenge.  In a perfect world it would be from an elected official with some political standing, but beggars can't be choosers.

[Taft]

Ok, I saw the map up top.  Pull up the 2008 Democratic Primary map and look at where John Edwards did well.  There's going to be a sharp correlation (Edwards got about 20% out there).

Just for grins and giggles, I pulled up the SoS's map.  Oh boy, this is hilarious to look at out in the Panhandle (I show one county...Cimmaron, I think, with 33 for Obama to 133 for the others combined...Obama ran third).  Basically, a narrative for musing over: Outside of Oklahoma County (i.e. Oklahoma City), and Tulsa County (i.e. Tulsa) Obama barely got a majority of the vote in his own party primary (those two account for exactly 28,000 of Obama's 64,330 votes; outside of those two, he got only 50.9% of the vote).

Pulling up the CD map to go with it, I think Obama probably cleared the deck in CD-5 (Oklahoma City) and CD-1 (Tulsa), but I think both Rogers and Terry thresholded elsewhere.  Both should make it in CD-2 (eastern Oklahoma) and CD-3 (western Oklahoma): A quick survey of results in counties out there shows Obama generally running well under 50% (the 25% in the Panhandle is obviously an abberation, but counties like Kay (Obama 705, opposition 678) are pretty typical.

Just stabbing in the air, a result in CD-3 of Obama 40%, Terry 25%, Rogers 20%, Ely/Richardson 15% combined seems reasonable.  CD-2 probably runs a little better for Obama (but only slightly), though CD-4 probably goes much better for Obama (I'm thinking Obama 55%, others down proportionally), with CD-1 and CD-5 going about 65-75% for Obama.

Looking at The Green Papers' delegate selection plan (check The Green Papers' website; I'm not able to inclide a link), that would give Rogers 2 delegates, Terry probably 6-7, and Obama the rest.  I'd assume that Terry's delegates get revoked (as him being not-a-Democrat)...revoking Rogers' delegates, however, might provoke a bona fide (if doomed) court challenge of some sort and/or might generate some real ire within the Oklahoma Democratic Party.

Serious question to consider: If the Democrats go on a disqalification fest with Oklahoma, might one of the state's unpledged superdelegates vote for Rogers as a protest per what happened in New Mexico in '72?  On the one hand, I know that Rogers is a gadfly; on the other hand, declaring that a primary is proportional and then ignoring 43% of the voters dissenting tends to go over poorly.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

Yeah, Edwards got over 10% in Oklahoma in 2008 and he was already out of the race.

[King]

Yeah, Edwards got over 10% in Oklahoma in 2008 and he was already out of the race.

And voted for Wesley Clark when it was it pretty obviously Kerry vs. Edwards.

Perhaps Oklahoma is just being late to the party again and is working on Mid 2010 news. 

[Oakvale]

According to Wikipedia, Lyndon LaRouche won two delegates running against Clinton in 1996, so this isn't unprecedented.

And, like LaRouche, Terry's delegates will presumably be revoked.

[Proud Lieberal from Northeast]

According to Wikipedia, Lyndon LaRouche won two delegates running against Clinton in 1996, so this isn't unprecedented.

And, like LaRouche, Terry's delegates will presumably be revoked.

What's the harm of allowing a few joke delegates to sit at the convention?