Santorum to pour $1 million into Kansas, Mississippi and Alabama

[J. J.]

First, RCP lists it as a primary:  http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_delegate_count.html

Second, Gingrich is still going to be a candidate, as will Paul, even if neither are in the state.

It's a caucus. Open a non-hack site and you'l find it.

Real Clear Politics? 

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They both suspended their campaigns.  Gingrich is just concentrating on MS and AL.  Seriously, don't you understand the difference?

[ajb]

First, RCP lists it as a primary:  http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_delegate_count.html

Second, Gingrich is still going to be a candidate, as will Paul, even if neither are in the state.

It's a caucus. Open a non-hack site and you'l find it.

Real Clear Politics? 

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They both suspended their campaigns.  Gingrich is just concentrating on MS and AL.  Seriously, don't you understand the difference?

Of course voters at the Kansas caucuses (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/KS-R#0310) will have the opportunity to vote for Gingrich if they want to.
The question is why they'd be likely to do so in very large numbers. Santorum has done well in most of the neighboring states, and Gingrich had a very disappointing result last night.

Gingrich might do well in MS and AL, given his wins in GA and SC (you could argue that he' going to win the Deep South states won by Goldwater in 1964), but I'll wait for polls before guessing on that. But at best he's a regional candidate.

[J. J.]

Of course voters at the Kansas caucuses (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/KS-R#0310) will have the opportunity to vote for Gingrich if they want to.
The question is why they'd be likely to do so in very large numbers. Santorum has done well in most of the neighboring states, and Gingrich had a very disappointing result last night.

Gingrich might do well in MS and AL, given his wins in GA and SC (you could argue that he' going to win the Deep South states won by Goldwater in 1964), but I'll wait for polls before guessing on that. But at best he's a regional candidate.

Lyndon didn't think they would.  Look at neighboring OK, however.  Virtually no Gingrich effort, but he broke 25%.  No, Gingrich won't win KS, and I'd expect Santorum to get more delegates in KS, but Santorum's total will be down.  It won't give Santorum any momentum for next week, especially if loses the day overall.  It weakens Santorum before he basically faces Gingrich in MI and AL.

If a miracle happens, and Romney wins KS, Santorum is greatly weakened against Gingrich.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Gah. MS and AL, and a blowout Santorum head to head win in KA will showcase just how weak Romney is and why Santorum is the better nominee.

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Says it all.

[Landslide Lyndon]

It weakens Santorum before he basically faces Gingrich in MI and AL.

You know, I'd expect from a MENSA guy to have less trouble distinguishing Mississippi from Michigan.

[Wisconsin+17]

Mebbe he's a DENSA member.

[J. J.]

It weakens Santorum before he basically faces Gingrich in MI and AL.

You know, I'd expect from a MENSA guy to have less trouble distinguishing Mississippi from Michigan.

No, I just don't send too many letters to either.

Mebbe he's a DENSA member.

Didn't you just say Santorum was going to get the most delegates yesterday?

[Landslide Lyndon]

It weakens Santorum before he basically faces Gingrich in MI and AL.

You know, I'd expect from a MENSA guy to have less trouble distinguishing Mississippi from Michigan.

No, I just don't send too many letters to either.

What, the Pony Express doesn't stop by your neighborhood?

[Wisconsin+17]

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I did say it was a mite premature to award that honor to Romney.

[J. J.]

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I did say it was a mite premature to award that honor to Romney.

It wasn't, though Romney might not have lost several more primaries.

[Joe Republic]

KA

KS

[Wisconsin+17]

Is it really KS and not KA?

[J. J.]

Is it really KS and not KA?

KS, I stayed up to watch AK results prior to posting it. 

[Joe Republic]

Is it really KS and not KA?

Seriously?

[J. J.]

Are any of the candidates actually going to show up in OK?  According to the news, they are in AL and MS.

[Lief 🗽]

Why would they visit OK now that the primary is over there???

[J. J.]

Why would they visit OK now that the primary is over there???

Sorry, will any candidate actually show up in KS?

[7,052,770]

Santorum and Gingrich were both in Mississippi on Thursday, but after watching TV for several hours tonight, I only saw Romney ads.  There was an anti-Santorum attack ad and an anti-Gingrich one.

[Joe Republic]

Why would they visit OK now that the primary is over there???

Sorry, will any candidate actually show up in KS?

This has apparently been quite a challenge for you.  Would you like to take a break for a day or two?

[Mr. Morden]

Why would they visit OK now that the primary is over there???

Sorry, will any candidate actually show up in KS?

Santorum was there on Wednesday, and will be back on Friday.  Paul will also be there on Friday.

States being visited by each of the candidates from Wednesday to Friday this week, according to their public schedules:

http://www.politico.com/2012-election/calendar/?date=2012-03-09

Wednesday:
Gingrich: AL
Santorum: KS, MS

Thursday:
Gingrich: MS
Romney: MS
Santorum: AL

Friday:
Gingrich: MS, AL
Paul: KS
Romney: MS, AL
Santorum: AL, KS

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

I think Kansas might be a bit of a waste, since  I think he's pretty safe there, but then again, it seems every caucus state goes the opposite of how I think it will...

[King]

banned

[argentarius]

I think Santorum should be aiming for a massive win in Kansas, maybe even pushing Romney below 20% and taking it all. If I was Paul I would make a push for 20% in Kansas, but it now looks like he'll repeat his Colorado showing. It's also important to note that only 18 delegates are up for grabs in the island caucuses on Saturday, while Kansas actually picks its superdelegates.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Didn't Huckabee blow McCain out of the water in the 2008 Kansas caucuses, even after McCain was the de facto nominee?  I doubt Romney has much chance there.  He's probably more likely to win Alabama than he is to win the Kansas caucuses.

The anti-Romney vote is going to be divided in KS.

JJ's impeccable predictive powers once again save the day.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/03/07/gingrich_concedes_kansas.html

Newt Gingrich has canceled a series of appearances in Kansas leading up to the state's Saturday caucus, the Topeka Capital-Journal reports.

He's still on the ballot, just like OH.

There are no ballots at caucuses. Didn't they mention that at your MENSA meetings?

That's not true...

[Tender Branson]

Let's see. How will Alabama and Mississippi vote ?

Paul gets his usual 8%.
Romney's ceiling is 25% (looking at all these southern TN counties, bordering the 2 states).

25+8= 33

66% are remaining for Santorum and Gingrich, because 1% vote for "others".

I'm waiting for PPP, but currently I'd say:

35% Santorum
31% Gingrich
25% Romney
  8% Paul
  1% Others

+/- 3% MoE