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Author Topic: AL-Capital Survey Research Center: Final tracking poll shows Romney+1  (Read 1938 times)
Ben Romney
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« on: March 07, 2012, 07:10:28 pm »
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Romney: 31.2%
Santorum: 21.6%
Gingrich: 21.2
Paul: 06.0%

http://blog.al.com/spotnews/2012/03/alabama_education_association_3.htm
« Last Edit: March 13, 2012, 12:35:37 pm by Tender Branson »Logged

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« Reply #1 on: March 07, 2012, 07:11:07 pm »
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ummmm...
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« Reply #2 on: March 07, 2012, 07:12:07 pm »
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wtf
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« Reply #3 on: March 07, 2012, 07:12:47 pm »
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Link doesn't work.
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« Reply #4 on: March 07, 2012, 07:13:20 pm »
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5 on: March 07, 2012, 07:19:02 pm »

PPP will poll Alabama, Mississippi, Pennsylvania and North Carolina this weekend.

So we'll see if Romney really has a shot in Alabama. If Santorum and Gingrich are tied, it could be true.
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« Reply #6 on: March 07, 2012, 07:31:50 pm »
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Romney will get 28% here like he has in every other Southern state. Add in Paul's 10% and that's 62% for Gingrich and Santorum. Even if they split it in half, that's still 31% which is more than Romney's margin.
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« Reply #7 on: March 07, 2012, 07:36:55 pm »
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A teddy bear could produce a better poll than this.
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« Reply #8 on: March 07, 2012, 07:57:31 pm »
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I expect Romney to gain momentum, but not that much momentum.  Outlier, or just a bad poll would be my guess.

If it's accurate, the race is over by the Ides of March.

 
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J. J.

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« Reply #9 on: March 07, 2012, 08:43:20 pm »
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Here is the new story:  http://blog.al.com/spotnews/2012/03/alabama_education_association_3.html

It sounds dubious.
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J. J.

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« Reply #10 on: March 07, 2012, 08:46:34 pm »
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« Reply #11 on: March 07, 2012, 08:55:34 pm »
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Looking at some of the comments, the only thing I could figure is that WAM and Santorum are splitting the religious bigot vote.  It's possible, but I still don't buy it.
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IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #12 on: March 07, 2012, 09:03:51 pm »
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If this poll is true, Newt's toast.
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« Reply #13 on: March 07, 2012, 09:08:47 pm »
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If this poll is true, Newt's toast.

Yep, and so is Santorum.  I doubt it either candidate could seriously go on with Romney winning in the west, the rust belt, and now the deep south.


« Last Edit: March 07, 2012, 09:10:26 pm by J. J. »Logged

J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
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« Reply #14 on: March 07, 2012, 09:32:25 pm »
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Doubt this immensely...I think Romney would be lucky to break 25%...

...folks, let's remember this is friggin ALABAMA...He may do well in the rich suburban counties of Birmingham but he's toast everywhere else...

...same in Mississippi and the rich Jackson suburbs...
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« Reply #15 on: March 07, 2012, 09:51:38 pm »
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Yep, and so is Santorum.  I doubt it either candidate could seriously go on with Romney winning in the west, the rust belt, and now the deep south.

Ask yourself, what happens with just Santorum? Wink

Newt needs to be kicking butt here. 3rd place in AL?
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« Reply #16 on: March 07, 2012, 09:57:17 pm »
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Yep, and so is Santorum.  I doubt it either candidate could seriously go on with Romney winning in the west, the rust belt, and now the deep south.

Ask yourself, what happens with just Santorum? Wink

Romney would have won SC.

Quote
Newt needs to be kicking butt here. 3rd place in AL?

At this point, Romney would gain momentum, if this happened.  I think that it is doubtful that it will happen.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
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"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
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« Reply #17 on: March 07, 2012, 10:48:29 pm »
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That poll seems to be by the Alabama Education Association, which I don't think has the best polling skills out there.

Doubt this immensely...I think Romney would be lucky to break 25%...

...folks, let's remember this is friggin ALABAMA...He may do well in the rich suburban counties of Birmingham but he's toast everywhere else...

...same in Mississippi and the rich Jackson suburbs...

Amen. And he might not even take Jefferson County, which would be the only one in the core that I could imagine going for Romney if at all. Take a look at last night next door:



Romney got 25.9% of the vote. He didn't even win in some pretty progressive areas, but Newt is a homie and Santorum spent little to no money here and in exchange, missed the magic 20% by 0.4 points.

If Santorum drops $300,000 in AL, he could split enough off of Newt to possibly let Romney win, but Romney would have to independently raise his total to at least 30%, which I don't think is possible.
« Last Edit: March 07, 2012, 10:51:34 pm by Adam Griffin »Logged



Tender Branson
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« Reply #18 on: March 08, 2012, 11:40:32 am »

Among the results, 29.9% of voters would pick Mitt Romney, 24.7% of voters pick Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum gets 20.1%, and Ron Paul has 5.6% of those polled, with 19.8% of those polled don't know or had no reply.

The Capital Survey Research Center did a survey of 592 likely voters in Alabama from march 5-7, 2012.

http://www2.alabamas13.com/news/2012/mar/08/new-poll-alabama-voters-show-tight-gop-primary-rac-ar-3373747
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« Reply #19 on: March 08, 2012, 11:42:56 am »
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What's with all these polls of Alabama from obscure companies, featuring decimal places and reporting the undecideds?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #20 on: March 08, 2012, 11:52:50 am »

This group isn't particularly good. In 2008, a few days ahead of the AL primaries this was their final poll:

http://www.tuscaloosanews.com/article/20080202/NEWS/122394749

Obama by 7 and McCain by 12.

Obama won by 12 and Huckabee by 4.
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« Reply #21 on: March 08, 2012, 11:53:04 am »
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Third one, but I'm still skeptical.

Third one of what? Two showed Romney ahead. One showed Santorum ahead.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #22 on: March 08, 2012, 11:58:55 am »

Third one, but I'm still skeptical.

It's actually 2.

I found out that CSRC polls for the Alabama Education Association.

This means that they are likely doing a tracking poll.

It's the same company as the poll posted by Hillary.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #23 on: March 08, 2012, 12:01:20 pm »

I have merged the threads, so we can put in the numbers here if it's indeed a tracking poll.
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J. J.
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« Reply #24 on: March 08, 2012, 12:04:09 pm »
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Third one, but I'm still skeptical.

It's actually 2.

I found out that CSRC polls for the Alabama Education Association.

This means that they are likely doing a tracking poll.

It's the same company as the poll posted by Hillary.

Okay.

I was going going to ask it it was possible if a campaign was putting out fake polls.  Romney winning MS or AL (or even a plurality on Tuesday), will be the shock of the season.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
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