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+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Apocrypha)
| | |-+  Will a Republican ever win CA or NY?
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Author Topic: Will a Republican ever win CA or NY?  (Read 468 times)
Arbitrage1980
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« on: September 05, 2016, 11:35:24 pm »
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What type of Republican can win either one of those states?
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marty
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« Reply #1 on: September 05, 2016, 11:48:52 pm »
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A west or east cost business republican running against a southern democrat incumbent who is in the midst of a huge scandal or severe recession could probably come close.
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Arbitrage1980
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« Reply #2 on: September 06, 2016, 12:51:02 am »
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A west or east cost business republican running against a southern democrat incumbent who is in the midst of a huge scandal or severe recession could probably come close.

Yeah this is what I was thinking.  Timing matters a lot obviously.  If the presidential election were held on November 1994, Clinton would have lost CA.  If the election were held on November 2002, Bush would have won both CA and NY.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #3 on: September 06, 2016, 04:57:49 am »
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If Democrats nominate a terrible (maybe corrupt) candidate while a very puoular incumbent president runs for reelection after a time of crises. A latino or black version of John Kasich or Charlie Baker for example.
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« Reply #4 on: September 06, 2016, 08:18:52 am »
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Eventually, but probably not soon.
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FairBol
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« Reply #5 on: September 06, 2016, 02:42:41 pm »
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I think it's actually quite possible that a Republican will win New York in a future election.  California....eh....although it could happen, not so much.  :-/
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« Reply #6 on: September 06, 2016, 02:51:35 pm »
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A Charlie Dent type could.
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You're not an independent, you're just a confused Democrat.

The thing is neither left-wing economic policy, nor socialism has failed in history.
Cathcon
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« Reply #7 on: September 06, 2016, 10:17:48 pm »
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This thread is so useless. If we assume the U.S. to be in a vacuum where the party structure--as in the same two major parties--goes uninterrupted, and where the U.S. continues to exist, but where internal events can interact dynamically, the GOP will eventually win one of those states.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #8 on: September 06, 2016, 10:57:08 pm »
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Eventually, but probably not soon.
This. It would take a realignment, or an insanely strong, liberal spoiler candidate (highly unlikely, though)
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I've been trying to tell you guys. Clinton's win is going to be massive. Imagine Obama's numbers with minorities, four more years of minority population growth, and Clinton out-performing him by >5% with white voters. No state will be safe.

#NeverNeverNeverSherrodBrown
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« Reply #9 on: September 07, 2016, 02:48:41 pm »
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Bloomberg and Schwarzenegger were the only ones and unless another Chris Christie come along, no.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #10 on: September 07, 2016, 03:11:32 pm »
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Bloomberg and Schwarzenegger were the only ones and unless another Chris Christie come along, no.
Schwarzenegger is a naturalized citizen, and therefore ineligible to run.
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I've been trying to tell you guys. Clinton's win is going to be massive. Imagine Obama's numbers with minorities, four more years of minority population growth, and Clinton out-performing him by >5% with white voters. No state will be safe.

#NeverNeverNeverSherrodBrown
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