Mitt Romney tries to break Southern losing streak

[Tidewater_Wave]

Interersting to point out, we haven't had a northern candidate since Gerald Ford. The country has changed since then and I still expect Romney to sweep the south in November but I think we may be seeing him in the 55-60 range in states like LA, MS, AR, AL, TN, and WV rather than following the rightward trend of the last couple decades.

[Wisconsin+17]

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In 1860 - 80 percent of those who lived in Florida - some 150k people, lived in north florida.

Romney still hasn't won anything in the South.

[memphis]

Interersting to point out, we haven't had a northern candidate since Gerald Ford. The country has changed since then and I still expect Romney to sweep the south in November but I think we may be seeing him in the 55-60 range in states like LA, MS, AR, AL, TN, and WV rather than following the rightward trend of the last couple decades.

The Kennebunkports aren't northern enough for you?

[Tidewater_Wave]

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In 1860 - 80 percent of those who lived in Florida - some 150k people, lived in north florida.

Romney still hasn't won anything in the South.

I see what you're saying. If Rubio or McDonnell are on the ticket or even just strongly involved as they're already seen to be, then I don't see a single state in play south of the Mason-Dixon regardless of head to head polls being taken in March before Romney has even been declared the nominee.

[Wisconsin+17]

Tampa, from what I can see only sprang up in 1890, to around 5k, from almost nobody.

Median age then would have been around 30 or so. Meaning that most of the folks in Tampa had no recollection of the Civil War.

Jacksonville had 2k during the Civil war. Doubling that in 20 years, would give you about 8k by 1900 out of 28k, so around 1/3rd were folks who had lived there during the civil war. By 1880, more then half lived there during the civil war.

[Tidewater_Wave]

Tampa, from what I can see only sprang up in 1890, to around 5k, from almost nobody.

Median age then would have been around 30 or so. Meaning that most of the folks in Tampa had no recollection of the Civil War.

Jacksonville had 2k during the Civil war. Doubling that in 20 years, would give you about 8k by 1900 out of 28k, so around 1/3rd were folks who had lived there during the civil war. By 1880, more then half lived there during the civil war.

What about all of this?

[J. J.]

Interersting to point out, we haven't had a northern candidate since Gerald Ford. The country has changed since then and I still expect Romney to sweep the south in November but I think we may be seeing him in the 55-60 range in states like LA, MS, AR, AL, TN, and WV rather than following the rightward trend of the last couple decades.

The Kennebunkports aren't northern enough for you?

Not when you are summering there. 

[J. J.]

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In 1860 - 80 percent of those who lived in Florida - some 150k people, lived in north florida.

Romney still hasn't won anything in the South.

So you don't think McKinley will carry Florida?

[ajb]

Interersting to point out, we haven't had a northern candidate since Gerald Ford. The country has changed since then and I still expect Romney to sweep the south in November but I think we may be seeing him in the 55-60 range in states like LA, MS, AR, AL, TN, and WV rather than following the rightward trend of the last couple decades.

The Kennebunkports aren't northern enough for you?

Not when you are summering there. 

Bush the Father was pretty thoroughly a northeastern blue-blood Republican in every ounce of his being. It's what did him in in the end. Bush the Son really was, too, Andover and Yale man that he was, but he played the part better.

[Wisconsin+17]

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It's pretty much Solid McClellan.

BTW - here's a statewide county w/population table for 1860 FL. Just for the lulz.

Romney gets 12343 + 8609 + 5074 + 3038 + 2913 + 1200 + 1158 + 987 + 854 + 83, or 36,159 out of 142,424.

Gingrich gets 75:25 of the South. So yes, Romney hasn't won any southern states.

Leon      1860 (12343) ROMNEY
Jackson   1860 (10209)
Jefferson 1860 (9896)
Gadsen    1860 (9396)
Marion    1860 (8609) ROMNEY
Alachua   1860 (8232)
Madison   1860 (7779)
Escambia  1860 (5768)
Santa Ros 1860 (5480)
Duval     1860 (5074) - ROMNEY
Columbia  1860 (4646)
Hamilton  1860 (4154)
Bradford  1860 (3820)
Nassau    1860 (3644)
Walton    1860 (3037)
St. John  1860 (3038) - ROMNEY
Hillsboro 1860 (2981)
Monroe    1860 (2913) - ROMNEY
Wakulla   1860 (2839)
Putnam    1860 (2712)
Suwannee  1860 (2303)
Washingto 1860 (2154)
Lafayette 1860 (2068)
Clay      1860 (1914)
Franklin  1860 (1904)
Levy      1860 (1781)
Sumpter   1860 (1549)
Liberty   1860 (1457)
Calhoun   1860 (1446)
Taylor    1860 (1394)
Holmes    1860 (1386)
Hernando  1860 (1200) ROMNEY
Volusia   1860 (1158) ROMNEY
Orange    1860 (987) ROMNEY
Manatee 1860 (854) ROMNEY
Dade      1860 (83) ROMNEY

[Tidewater_Wave]

Interersting to point out, we haven't had a northern candidate since Gerald Ford. The country has changed since then and I still expect Romney to sweep the south in November but I think we may be seeing him in the 55-60 range in states like LA, MS, AR, AL, TN, and WV rather than following the rightward trend of the last couple decades.

The Kennebunkports aren't northern enough for you?

Not when you are summering there. 

Bush the Father was pretty thoroughly a northeastern blue-blood Republican in every ounce of his being. It's what did him in in the end. Bush the Son really was, too, Andover and Yale man that he was, but he played the part better.

What does this mean for Romney in the south though?

[J. J.]

Interersting to point out, we haven't had a northern candidate since Gerald Ford. The country has changed since then and I still expect Romney to sweep the south in November but I think we may be seeing him in the 55-60 range in states like LA, MS, AR, AL, TN, and WV rather than following the rightward trend of the last couple decades.

The Kennebunkports aren't northern enough for you?

Not when you are summering there. 

Bush the Father was pretty thoroughly a northeastern blue-blood Republican in every ounce of his being. It's what did him in in the end. Bush the Son really was, too, Andover and Yale man that he was, but he played the part better.

What does this mean for Romney in the south though?

Probably nothing, since GHWB did reasonably well, against a southerner.

[Tidewater_Wave]

Interersting to point out, we haven't had a northern candidate since Gerald Ford. The country has changed since then and I still expect Romney to sweep the south in November but I think we may be seeing him in the 55-60 range in states like LA, MS, AR, AL, TN, and WV rather than following the rightward trend of the last couple decades.

The Kennebunkports aren't northern enough for you?

Not when you are summering there. 

Bush the Father was pretty thoroughly a northeastern blue-blood Republican in every ounce of his being. It's what did him in in the end. Bush the Son really was, too, Andover and Yale man that he was, but he played the part better.

What does this mean for Romney in the south though?

Probably nothing, since GHWB did reasonably well, against a southerner.

That's what I'm saying. Good point too. I think other than AR and WV, the south would've been solid GOP in 1992 without Perot.

[J. J.]

For that matter so did GWB.

[Tidewater_Wave]

For that matter so did GWB.

Lol that's also what I said. He was a southerner though and in 2004 not a state was competitive in Dixie.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Grant may have fought a war of attrition, but then General Grant also didn't get blown out in Minnesota and North Dakota.

Perhaps you are not familiar with the Battle of Cold Harbor.  It made zero difference to the inevitable outcome. Grant just put some ice on it, and kept going, and going, and going.

The Cold Harbor analogy would have been appropriate for Ohio had Santorum won there, but Romney didn't put a lot of effort into Minnesota or North Dakota.

A more appropriate Civil War analogy for Minnesota and Missouri is Chancellorsville.  Mittens wasn't expecting a fight and got routed as a result.