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Author Topic: White Russian victory in the Russian civil war  (Read 2111 times)
politicus
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« on: March 08, 2012, 12:55:59 pm »
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What do you think would have happened if the White Russians had defeated the Reds in the Russian Civil War? Most of their leaders where absolutistic and antisemitic. But there where also lots of personal and ideological differences between the leaders.

1. New civil war between WR commanders (war lord scenario like China in the 1920s)
2. Absolute monarchy reestablished
3. Constitutional monarchy
4. Military dictatorship with Russian style fascism
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Yelnoc
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« Reply #1 on: March 08, 2012, 07:20:20 pm »
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(This should be moved to Alternate History)

For an American perspective, the Socialist movement (and the broader radical left) would have remained a strong force in American politics and culture without the split caused by reactions to the USSR and without the first Red Scare.
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Tidewater_Wave
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« Reply #2 on: March 08, 2012, 07:56:25 pm »
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4
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Kalwejt
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« Reply #3 on: March 09, 2012, 08:51:10 am »
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Option 1 seems plausible, since White commanders did hate each other.
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wormyguy
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« Reply #4 on: March 09, 2012, 08:59:25 am »
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Depends on which faction is victorious and how.  I doubt they would bring back the monarchy.
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politicus
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« Reply #5 on: March 10, 2012, 12:00:47 pm »
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Their only real chance was in 1919. The North-west army under Yudenich takes St. Petersburg and captures Trotsky after victory in the battle of the Pulkov heights. Which allows Denikin's offensive from the Caucasus to be successful and conquer Moscow. Then you have two commanders controlling each of the two main cities and admiral Kolchak' s royalist government in Omsk in Siberia being intact. Both Denikin and Yudenich recognized Kolchak's government. But they would be tempted to go it alone IMO.
« Last Edit: March 10, 2012, 12:22:49 pm by politicus »Logged

dead0man
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« Reply #6 on: March 10, 2012, 12:21:49 pm »
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I'm gonna go with 4....and possibly a split Russia.  It would certainly make WWII different.
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tweed
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« Reply #7 on: March 10, 2012, 12:24:15 pm »
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ask ag if you actually care.  I presume it would have several times worse an abject disaster than the Russian Civil War already was.  fascism wins Europe.
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #8 on: March 10, 2012, 03:45:32 pm »
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It would be easier to just keep World War I from happening, if you were trying to find ways to prevent USSR.
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politicus
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« Reply #9 on: March 10, 2012, 08:06:15 pm »
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Fascism wins Europe.
Only if you assume that a White Russian regime would be aggressive and would have the resources to go on the offensive after a long civil war. They might reconquer Finland and the Baltic countries and maybe Poland if Britain and France doesn't want to help those countries.
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tweed
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« Reply #10 on: March 10, 2012, 09:07:04 pm »
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Fascism wins Europe.
Only if you assume that a White Russian regime would be aggressive and would have the resources to go on the offensive after a long civil war. They might reconquer Finland and the Baltic countries and maybe Poland if Britain and France doesn't want to help those countries.

I was just assuming that nothing like the Stalinist programme of industrialization would have taken place, thus essentially eliminating the Eastern threat to fascism.
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in a mirror, dimly lit
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Ernest
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« Reply #11 on: March 11, 2012, 12:42:13 am »

Fascism wins Europe.
Only if you assume that a White Russian regime would be aggressive and would have the resources to go on the offensive after a long civil war. They might reconquer Finland and the Baltic countries and maybe Poland if Britain and France doesn't want to help those countries.

I was just assuming that nothing like the Stalinist programme of industrialization would have taken place, thus essentially eliminating the Eastern threat to fascism.

First off, in the era before Hitler came to power, Germany and the Soviets were considerably more chummy militarily than is customarily realized in the west.  Working together gave the Soviets access to better technology than they could develop by themselves or acquire from the West, and it gave the Germans a chance to try out ideas that they could not have back home because of Versailles.  A White Russia would have had less incentive to help the Germans evade Versailles.

Secondly, with a White Russia as a potential ally against Hitler, it is possible that the Western Allies would have considered the option they rejected in OTL and work with Russia to guarantee the territorial integrity of Czechoslovakia in 1938.  The Czechs had a tough little army with excellent equipment that the Germans made use of themselves in World War II.  If the Poles also attack Germany.  Hitler goes kaput in 1938.

(Of course if the Triple Entente remains intact, I think Hitler won't be crazy enough to invade Czechoslovakia in 1938.  Maybe 1939 if he can persuade Poland to remain neutral.)
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« Reply #12 on: March 11, 2012, 12:50:17 am »
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Either 1 or 4. If 1 then possibly the reds could have done like the CCP and just retreat to a remote region and lick their wounds until after WW2 to renew the Civil war.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #13 on: March 12, 2012, 08:48:43 pm »
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By the time the civil war was really going, the Romanovs had already been executed, so a reestablishment of the monarchy wasn't really in the cards.  What Denikin would've done if victorious is a pretty difficult question, but the Reds would've had to devote so much energy and attention to fighting the Whites in this scenario that I think you'd see an independent Ukraine (or rump Ukraine, at least) and the independence of Transcaucasia and Central Asia lasting a few years longer than it did.
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politicus
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« Reply #14 on: March 12, 2012, 10:31:11 pm »
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The Romanov's weren't extinct.  There are still members of the family alive today. Kolchak was officially committed to reestablishing the monarchy. So you can't rule out, that he would have tried to do so. Maybe in a construction like Franco/Juan Carlos where a younger member of the former ruling dynasty would be chosen to succeed him as head of state after his death, while he would remain regent for life.
Denikin was not a royalist, so it dependens which one of them would come out on top after a power struggle, but Kolchak had the advantage of being the recognized White leader by all major commanders - including Denikin. So it would have been problematic to challenge him outright.
« Last Edit: March 12, 2012, 10:43:22 pm by politicus »Logged

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