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Author Topic: ME-PPP Obama 58 Romney 35  (Read 975 times)
ajb
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« on: March 08, 2012, 01:25:26 pm »
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Identical numbers for Obama-Santorum.
Obama approval 55-41 (was 47-48 in October)
Romney favorables 30-63 (was 38-49)




http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/03/obama-standing-much-improved-in-maine.html#more
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cope1989
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« Reply #1 on: March 08, 2012, 01:32:39 pm »
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Man, I know a lot can happen between now and november, but seriously, a lot of s**t has to go down in the next eight months to reverse this amazing advantage Obama has, pretty much everywhere.
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Can't we all just get along?
Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #2 on: March 08, 2012, 01:33:53 pm »
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This sort of throws cold water on the skeptics who scoffed at that Virginia poll that showed him up by 17%.
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Try this wonderful POPULIST BLOG...

http://onlinelunchpail.blogspot.com
ajb
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« Reply #3 on: March 08, 2012, 01:44:39 pm »
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FWIW, in an Obama-Santorum contest in Maine, the poll finds Obama would win men, 52-42... and win women, 64-29.
The Obama-Romney numbers are very similar by gender; Paul actually wins men 47-45, but loses women by about the same margins as Santorum and Romney.
Gingrich of course does even worse. Men prefer Obama to Gingrich, 53-38; women, 66-25.
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memphis
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« Reply #4 on: March 08, 2012, 03:28:26 pm »
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This sort of throws cold water on the skeptics who scoffed at that Virginia poll that showed him up by 17%.
Not really Obama won ME by 17 last time. This would only be a modest improvement. Obama up 17 in VA would be epic. Especially considering how conservative nearly half the state is.
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I cannot do anything good under my own power. 
I will get up and move around every now and then so I reduce the chances to get hit with another Grade 8 headache in the morning.
Tidewater_Wave
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« Reply #5 on: March 08, 2012, 03:33:23 pm »
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That's surprising for Maine. I'd expect that state to be 54-45.
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ajb
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« Reply #6 on: March 08, 2012, 03:39:47 pm »
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That's surprising for Maine. I'd expect that state to be 54-45.
If this year turns out to be like 2004, that's about where it would be. And this year might be like 2004 in the end, but there's a fair amount of evidence that right now it's more like 2008, or even a little better for the Democrats
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Tidewater_Wave
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« Reply #7 on: March 08, 2012, 04:28:45 pm »
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That's surprising for Maine. I'd expect that state to be 54-45.
If this year turns out to be like 2004, that's about where it would be. And this year might be like 2004 in the end, but there's a fair amount of evidence that right now it's more like 2008, or even a little better for the Democrats

It wouldn't surprise me if since 2004 ME has changed a couple points one way of the other, but I see what you mean. The state has trended to the left for 30 years now.
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Devils30
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« Reply #8 on: March 08, 2012, 04:38:24 pm »
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Obama won't really win VA by 17. 8-10 would be a huge win that's realistic.
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Miles
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« Reply #9 on: March 08, 2012, 10:26:24 pm »
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'Putrid Propaganda Polling' actually had a very good night on Super Tuesday...they nailed the competitive contests in TN, OH and GA.

But I guess CaDan , in all his hackishness, seems to ignore such things.
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #10 on: March 09, 2012, 02:09:27 am »
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Database entry: http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=2320120304108
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marvelrobbins
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« Reply #11 on: March 09, 2012, 09:43:54 am »
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'Putrid Propaganda Polling' actually had a very good night on Super Tuesday...they nailed the competitive contests in TN, OH and GA.

But I guess CaDan , in all his hackishness, seems to ignore such things.

As a democrat and Obama supporter let me say PPP Is onf best pollsters.They were one of the
best In both 2008,and 2010.When they show Democrats In trouble I take It seriously.Just as I do when they have good results for Obama and Democrats.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #12 on: March 09, 2012, 04:21:32 pm »
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And what of 2010's redistricting gerrymanders? Last I heard Ohio's new maps are 12-4 Republican/Democrat. I think Pennsylvania was pretty bad too.

They are horrible. Indiana is even worse. The Indiana state legislature set up the state so that it has two D+20 (Cook PVI) districts and seven R+5 districts. 

But here is the trouble for Republicans: extremists lose in moderate districts. If the Democrats had elected and set up nominations of a bunch of political clones of Charlie Rangell (well suited to a D+41 like his district) in D+4 districts, then moderate Republicans could likely defeat a bunch of those politicians. Congressional Representatives cannot change the political culture of their districts fast enough, raise enough money for campaigns that flood the opposition into oblivion, or do first-rate constituent service well enough to transform their districts into the sort that go for someone on the political fringe. In such a case, Republicans running as moderates -- perhaps even taking stances different from those of their Parties -- would run against Hard Left pols and win an election or two.

On the other side a Republican in one of the two R+29 districts (TX-13, a district containing Wichita Falls and Amarillo) and AL-06 which contains a large chunk of Alabama that nearly surrounds Birmingham but excludes it and is 88% white in a state only 68% white), a Republican incumbent can get away with a lot. Mac Thornberry (TX-13)  ran unopposed in 2010; Spencer Bachus (AL-06) is one of the biggest players in a tolerated inside-trading scheme. (Mavens of good government: if you want few political scandals involving elected Representatives, then do not create D+15 and R+15 districts). 

The 2010 election did not bring Republican 'moderates' to the fore. Such might have entrenched themselves quickly enough. Instead the Tea Party types who acted as if they had no concern about getting re-elected or were assured of re-election and voted as if they were in R+30 districts.

To be sure the fresh Congressional Representatives have not gotten entrenched deeply enough to abuse power -- but they have gone into political lockstep. They will get huge money thrown at their campaigns, but that won't consistently be enough.  They won with depressed turnout and well-concealed agendas; the voter turnout in a Presidential election usually increases, and Republicans with Hard Right voting records in moderate districts are going to have difficulties in defeating those that their current Hard Right representatives defeated in 2010.

For an analogy in physics try "damped harmonic oscillation". Don't worry about the math.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C6idxyQPbiw&feature=related
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