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Author Topic: Pennsylvania: An analysis.  (Read 5010 times)
A.G. Snowstalker
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« Reply #25 on: March 09, 2012, 01:51:40 pm »
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So voters have to know about the delegates they vote for? What's wrong with just voting for a Romney slate, or a Santorum slate, for instance?
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J. J.
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« Reply #26 on: March 09, 2012, 03:36:18 pm »
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So voters have to know about the delegates they vote for? What's wrong with just voting for a Romney slate, or a Santorum slate, for instance?

Nothing, but it won't be well advertized. 
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J. J.

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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #27 on: March 09, 2012, 03:54:27 pm »
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So voters have to know about the delegates they vote for? What's wrong with just voting for a Romney slate, or a Santorum slate, for instance?

Nothing, but it won't be well advertized. 

Bingo

Again, there isn't a distinction on the ballot as to who the delegate candidate supports for President even if the candidate is publicly known to be for X.
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argentarius
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« Reply #28 on: March 09, 2012, 03:56:24 pm »
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So voters have to know about the delegates they vote for? What's wrong with just voting for a Romney slate, or a Santorum slate, for instance?

Nothing, but it won't be well advertized. 

Bingo

Again, there isn't a distinction on the ballot as to who the delegate candidate supports for President even if the candidate is publicly known to be for X.
Still thinking of voting for that Paulite friend of yours?
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A.G. Snowstalker
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« Reply #29 on: March 09, 2012, 03:56:53 pm »
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So what does a primary ballot in PA look like?
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« Reply #30 on: March 09, 2012, 03:57:52 pm »
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What impact on the PA primary will the fact that Santorum abandoned PA years ago for VA have?
"Abandoned"? You're making it sound as if being shut of the Santorums actually harmed the state in any way. Tongue
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« Reply #31 on: March 09, 2012, 04:00:04 pm »
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Rick will be greeted here by throngs as roses are thrown at his feet.
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« Reply #32 on: March 09, 2012, 11:12:45 pm »
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So what does a primary ballot in PA look like?

They haven't finalized the ballots for this year, but here's a sample ballot from 2008.
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J. J.
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« Reply #33 on: March 09, 2012, 11:32:15 pm »
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So what does a primary ballot in PA look like?

They haven't finalized the ballots for this year, but here's a sample ballot from 2008.

That's it.  And one of the people on there is a client.  Smiley
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J. J.

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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #34 on: March 10, 2012, 08:43:24 am »
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So voters have to know about the delegates they vote for? What's wrong with just voting for a Romney slate, or a Santorum slate, for instance?

Nothing, but it won't be well advertized. 

Bingo

Again, there isn't a distinction on the ballot as to who the delegate candidate supports for President even if the candidate is publicly known to be for X.
Still thinking of voting for that Paulite friend of yours?

It turns out none of the Paul fans that I thought were running actually ran. I have other difficult choices to make for my vote though...


So what does a primary ballot in PA look like?

They haven't finalized the ballots for this year, but here's a sample ballot from 2008.

And it varies by county.
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Erc
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« Reply #35 on: March 10, 2012, 09:03:33 am »
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So, Phil...one thing I saw a lot while compiling the mega-list on the previous page was official endorsements of a slate of three (or four) delegates by the local GOP.  Is this done on a county-by-county basis?  Do all counties do it?  And, more to the point...are such endorsements going to be well-publicized with the full weight of the local GOP?
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #36 on: March 10, 2012, 09:10:44 am »
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So, Phil...one thing I saw a lot while compiling the mega-list on the previous page was official endorsements of a slate of three (or four) delegates by the local GOP.  Is this done on a county-by-county basis?  Do all counties do it?  And, more to the point...are such endorsements going to be well-publicized with the full weight of the local GOP?

Done in most counties, yeah, probably. All? No. Some definitely wouldn't dare to go against Santorum, for example, but don't want to catch hell from the establishment (by refusing Romney).

This stuff will be well publicized within GOP circles but your average voter won't really know about it until Election day. The parties will have their people "pushing" the endorsed slate on sample ballots (political lit) at the polls. Now, of course, there will be renegades that a) hate making primary endorsements and/or b) hate the endorsed candidate(s) so you won't see a party totally unified in most counties.

This year, of course, will bring home publicity to the delegate races from the campaigns themselves if the race really does last that long but I still believe the major push will be at the polling place.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #37 on: March 10, 2012, 10:30:17 am »
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Ok, finally some of my take on the race here. This is assuming the race is still on during the PA primary (and by "on" I mean Santorum is at least making campaign stops in the state). If it isn't, Santorum might still get a favorite son win (a la Dean 2004) but who knows...

Let's start with one of the counties that will have the most interesting mix of supporters: Philadelphia

Despite being the Dem stronghold in General elections, we obviously aren't the major focus during a primary but we get more attention than you would think. We still have, in terms of raw voters, many registered Republicans. The issue, of course, is motivation. Now I could go on a two page long rant over motivation in other areas but concerning the Presidential primary, the candidates themselves should be able to boost turnout above the pathetic 10-15% we are used to. I, for one, am hoping turnout in my precinct among Republicans breaks into triple digits for the first time I can remember in a primary (and it likely should but that's because of a very important Special election we are having). Anyway, let's start with...Ron Paul.

Paul's areas of strengths will be the Center City Wards, the area that has always had a more libertarian tilt amongst Republicans. This is where he'll receive the bulk of his votes in the city. He will likely win the Ward in North Philly that is home to my alma mater - Temple University - since the campus has a strong Libertarian group and we know how college students feel about The Doctor. He could win a Ward around UPenn but I think that's more Romney territory. Anyway, aside from a Ward here and there, Paul has to count on Center City. I don't see him winning any of the big Wards there. Outside of that area, he's going to struggle. He has some young voters in my area (Northeast), Roxborough/Manayunk (especially Manayunk) and South Philly but not enough to make a strong showing.

The problem for Romney is that his best areas - the professional areas of Center City - are also Paul's best areas and the latter candidate will eat up a lot of those votes. Romney will still win Center City Wards but by reduced margins. For those not committed to Paul, the economic message/background basically locks these people in with Mitt. Outside of Center City, Romney will do well in more affluent areas around UPenn, Roxborough, Chestnut Hill, some areas of the Northeast and pockets of South Philly. I assume he'll also take quite a few North Philly Wards (maybe some Hispanic ones, too) because of how few Republicans are there.

The biggest loser in the city will likely be Newt. He'll have some support on the college campuses (think CPAC types) and among older voters in the Northeast (though I'll touch on why that will be greatly reduced in a minute. Should be obvious though...) but I'm really having a hard time seeing where else he will do well. He'll also be hurt the most in terms of organization. We know about Paul's Army and Romney's organization. Santorum will have home field advantage and loyalties from past campaigns/party people. I haven't heard a thing about Newt's team here.

That leaves us with Santorum. We know his problems in urban areas especially with Romney and Paul taking such a large chunk of the vote but I'll touch on why Santorum could come away as the big winner in Philly and why it isn't just because he is the most well known.
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« Reply #38 on: March 10, 2012, 11:15:09 am »
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Delegate-wise, Philly proper is split between CDs 1, 2, and 13, each of which also extend outside the city (into Delaware, Montco, and Montco respectively), and each of which elect 3 delegates.

In CD 1, there are only 6 candidates on the ballot.  Two of them (Tom Boggia and Dale Kerns) are Paulistas.  Two of them are, I assume, Romney supporters, as they were endorsed by the Romney-supporting Delaware County GOP: Marion Taxin and Christopher Vogler.  Frederick Anton, CEO of the Pennsylvania Manufactures Association, served as a delegate to the 2000, 2004, and 2008 Republican National Conventions.  I don't know much about the last delegate, Michael Untermeyer.

In CD 2, there are only 5 candidates on the ballot.  Lewis Harris, Adam Lang, and Vahan Gureghian (CEO, Charter School Management Inc.) were apparently endorsed by the Philly and Montco GOPs.

In CD 13, there are 8 candidates on the ballot, of which three are Paulites.  Of the remaining, one, Michael McMonagle, was a delegate in 2008.


The basic lack of people on the ballot suggest to me that Santorum will have a hard time getting supporters elected, but I could be very wrong.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #39 on: March 10, 2012, 11:59:46 am »
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Again, I'm not going to specifically comment on the delegates running here but your last point is, sadly, likely to be correct. Two to four of the people you mentioned, though, could be for Santorum. And the others you listed in the 1st are endorsed by Philly, too.

My Santorum-Philly analysis will be up later tonight...
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #40 on: March 11, 2012, 12:09:46 pm »
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Philadelphia - Part II

I touched on Romney's, Paul's and Gingrich's strengths and weaknesses across the city. Unfortunately for them (and especially unfortunate for the first two who tend to do so well in urban areas), Santorum has more strengths than weaknesses in the city. Let's touch on the obvious reason why: he was one of Pennsylvania's U.S. Senators for twelve years. He was a prominent Senator. He remains well known. But aside from the home field advantages for Rick, there are major demographic and ideological benefits in the city that many might not immediately recognize.

First, most of the Republican vote in the city comes from my area - the Northeast. If you are a Philadelphia Republican and don't live in the Northeast, chances are you live in South Philly (especially the pocket west of Broad Street). Other than that, there are Republicans in reasonably strong numbers in Roxborough and in the Center City Wards but that doesn't match the Northeast totals (let alone the NE + South Philly). Secondly, Republicans in these two areas are more socially conservative (overwhelmingly Roman Catholic) and are typically middle class and/or blue collar workers. As was mentioned earlier, there are pockets of more upper middle class/establishment types in the Northeast but they're vastly outnumbered by the types that have made up Santorum's base thus far. That's the double whammy against Romney and Paul.

An area like my Ward, for example, should be strongly for Santorum because of the blue collar, Catholic roots of most of the voters. Precincts immediately to the south of mine should be a little more favorable to Romney because there are more upper middle class Republicans. Rick should take one of them, for sure, while another will be a toss up. The two along the river, however, are more upper scale condo communities. I'd give those to Mitt. Once you get past those precincts, though, the southern end of the Ward should be overwhelmingly Pro Santorum.

Without being able to break into these areas, Santorum should actually win the city. Now I don't doubt that Romney will have his organization out on the streets. Even if they "abandon" the state for more enticing April 24th prizes, they'll have people here. I just don't think it will be enough. For the record, Paul will have his people out and Newt will likely have next to nothing.

If there's one take away from all of this, it should be the 2004 U.S. Senate primary numbers: even with a superior organization, homefield advantage and (unfortunately) help from the two most beloved conservatives in the eyes of PA Republicans at the time, Specter only took 60% in Philly. That should tell you all you need to know about why Philly will very, very likely be with Santorum.
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Governor TJ
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« Reply #41 on: March 11, 2012, 12:16:33 pm »
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Thus far blue-collar urban Catholics seem to be voting for Romney more than Santorum. Perhaps that will reverse itself in Pennsylvania, but I somewhat doubt it.
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Torie
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« Reply #42 on: March 11, 2012, 01:12:03 pm »
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Thus far blue-collar urban Catholics seem to be voting for Romney more than Santorum. Perhaps that will reverse itself in Pennsylvania, but I somewhat doubt it.

Yes, that was my thought, and the issue is whether the home town boy (well his hometown is across the state but whatever), can use the home field advantage to reverse that. Does the Philly versus Pittsburg rivalry have any relevance here? Philly area voters tend to have a certain disdain for the western PA types who cling to their guns and religion, as it were (obviously less so among Pubs).  And  it may depend in part as to just how much the Pubs want to avoid not having a nominee by June, which is a specter that terrifies the GOP establishment, and is now leeching into the conservative websites and blogs.  

Those are my rambling ruminations anyway.
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J. J.
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« Reply #43 on: March 11, 2012, 02:15:13 pm »
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I would expect Santorum to do well in the T.
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J. J.

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Erc
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« Reply #44 on: March 11, 2012, 03:13:09 pm »
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I would expect Santorum to do well in the T.

Very insightful.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #45 on: March 11, 2012, 08:44:43 pm »
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I would expect Santorum to do well in the T.

Very insightful.

Yeah...

Thus far blue-collar urban Catholics seem to be voting for Romney more than Santorum. Perhaps that will reverse itself in Pennsylvania, but I somewhat doubt it.

Yes, that was my thought, and the issue is whether the home town boy (well his hometown is across the state but whatever), can use the home field advantage to reverse that. Does the Philly versus Pittsburg rivalry have any relevance here? Philly area voters tend to have a certain disdain for the western PA types who cling to their guns and religion, as it were (obviously less so among Pubs).  And  it may depend in part as to just how much the Pubs want to avoid not having a nominee by June, which is a specter that terrifies the GOP establishment, and is now leeching into the conservative websites and blogs. 

Those are my rambling ruminations anyway.

Philly-Pittsburgh rivalry hurting Santorum? No. Just...no. Santorum has always had a good base among Catholics here. This exaggerated rivalry (it's more serious out west than it is here. Believe me) will have no affect on the race. Never has affected Santorum before.

Thus far blue-collar urban Catholics seem to be voting for Romney more than Santorum. Perhaps that will reverse itself in Pennsylvania, but I somewhat doubt it.

You doubt that blue collar, urban Catholics won't vote for Santorum in Pennsylvania? Ok.
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J. J.
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« Reply #46 on: March 11, 2012, 09:57:00 pm »
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I would expect Santorum to do well in the T.

Very insightful.

Actually, I don't think Santorum will do well SE PA.  Even in 1994, there was a reasonable amount of erosion in the pro-life vote during the primaries.
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J. J.

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"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #47 on: March 11, 2012, 09:58:36 pm »
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I would expect Santorum to do well in the T.

Very insightful.

Actually, I don't think Santorum will do well SE PA.  Even in 1994, there was a reasonable amount of erosion in the pro-life vote during the primaries.

"Actually, I don't think Santorum will do well SE PA."

Wow! Going out on a ledge there!

Of course he won't do as well as he'll do in the T and out west but he won't do as poorly as people expect. Bucks and Montco, for example, aren't exclusively moderate Republican areas and, as I touched on earlier, Philly will be good for Santorum.
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J. J.
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« Reply #48 on: March 11, 2012, 10:06:45 pm »
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I would expect Santorum to do well in the T.

Very insightful.

Actually, I don't think Santorum will do well SE PA.  Even in 1994, there was a reasonable amount of erosion in the pro-life vote during the primaries.

"Actually, I don't think Santorum will do well SE PA."

Wow! Going out on a ledge there!

Of course he won't do as well as he'll do in the T and out west but he won't do as poorly as people expect. Bucks and Montco, for example, aren't exclusively moderate Republican areas and, as I touched on earlier, Philly will be good for Santorum.

Some others have not done well in the past in SE PA.  Santorum could do better SW PA.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
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"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #49 on: March 11, 2012, 10:08:04 pm »
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I would expect Santorum to do well in the T.

Very insightful.

Actually, I don't think Santorum will do well SE PA.  Even in 1994, there was a reasonable amount of erosion in the pro-life vote during the primaries.

"Actually, I don't think Santorum will do well SE PA."

Wow! Going out on a ledge there!

Of course he won't do as well as he'll do in the T and out west but he won't do as poorly as people expect. Bucks and Montco, for example, aren't exclusively moderate Republican areas and, as I touched on earlier, Philly will be good for Santorum.

Some others have not done well in the past in SE PA.  Santorum could do better SW PA.

J.J., what exactly are you saying? "Some others have not done well." What? No one is expecting Santorum to do exceptionally well in the SE but I don't even know to whom you're referring at this point. And of course Santorum will do better in the SW. Stop stating the obvious.
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