Pennsylvania: An analysis.

[J. J.]

J.J., what exactly are you saying? "Some others have not done well." What? No one is expecting Santorum to do exceptionally well in the SE but I don't even know to whom you're referring at this point. And of course Santorum will do better in the SW. Stop stating the obvious.

It might not be obvious to some people reading this thread.

There are a whole bunch of factors, including the probability of Santorum winning the state and coming in behind Romney with the delegate count (which has been noted).

You know things, and I know these things, but not everyone reading this knows these things.

[Keystone Phil]

Rumor: Corbett to endorse Santorum just before the PA primary - http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2012/03/republican_presidential_nomina.html


Really not much of a story since they're old allies. Word is that he's been neutral out of respect for Rick but would join Romney's campaign once Santorum left the race. Then the race changed and now the word is that he'll endorse shortly before the primary. This would only be newsworthy if he wasn't going for Santorum (not that that would matter too much but it certainly isn't a headline you'd want to see from Santorum's perspective). 

If you scroll down past the story, there are some interesting blubs about each candidate, where they should run strongest (mostly accurate) and their strategies.

[defe07]

I've got an honest question to ask here about the Loophole Primary in Pennsylvania and Illinois. OK, so each voter in each district gets to vote for x number of delegates and the top x vote-getters are chosen?

[Keystone Phil]

I've got an honest question to ask here about the Loophole Primary in Pennsylvania and Illinois. OK, so each voter in each district gets to vote for x number of delegates and the top x vote-getters are chosen?

Correct

The Presidential vote is meaningless aside from getting bragging rights.

[Keystone Phil]

Establishment rallying for Romney in Harrisburg today - http://www.politicspa.com/pa-gop-establishment-to-rally-for-romney/32623/


The only new names appearing are Congressmen Dent and Shuster. Hardly surprising as they are hardly favorites with the base.

[J. J.]

Establishment rallying for Romney in Harrisburg today - http://www.politicspa.com/pa-gop-establishment-to-rally-for-romney/32623/


The only new names appearing are Congressmen Dent and Shuster. Hardly surprising as they are hardly favorites with the base.

Shuster has a following though in the center of the T.

[Keystone Phil]

Establishment rallying for Romney in Harrisburg today - http://www.politicspa.com/pa-gop-establishment-to-rally-for-romney/32623/


The only new names appearing are Congressmen Dent and Shuster. Hardly surprising as they are hardly favorites with the base.

Shuster has a following though in the center of the T.

Not enough that they'd vote for Romney.

[J. J.]

Establishment rallying for Romney in Harrisburg today - http://www.politicspa.com/pa-gop-establishment-to-rally-for-romney/32623/


The only new names appearing are Congressmen Dent and Shuster. Hardly surprising as they are hardly favorites with the base.

Shuster has a following though in the center of the T.

Not enough that they'd vote for Romney.

It could weaken the ABR, and Shuster has a good ground organization.

[Keystone Phil]

Proof that Santorum is receiving Corbett/some establishment support? Corbett's 2010 campaign manager is now running Rick's state operation.

[Keystone Phil]

Ridge endorses Romney. In other news...

[J. J.]

Proof that Santorum is receiving Corbett/some establishment support? Corbett's 2010 campaign manager is now running Rick's state operation.

Maybe not.  As you are aware, there are friendships and personal alliances that come into play.

I wouldn't be too surprised if the delegates sit on their hands until a winner emerges.

[All Along The Watchtower]

PA will be interesting. It should theoretically be a good state for Romney, since the Republicans there are often (though not always ) rather moderate by national standards.

Of course, Santorum being his opponent changes things, as well as Romney's rather weak showings in a lot of the primaries he was expected to win (or at least come close to winning).
Still, I imagine it will be close.

[Keystone Phil]

Still, I imagine it will be close.

It will only be close if Santorum totally collapses nationally and the media deem the race to be over. Romney can't rely on big margins outside of Montco, Bucks, Delaware, Chester, Allegheny and a few others (and even those counties should be closer than you'd think). I still contend that Romney loses Philly because of the types of Republicans we have here and how they vastly outnumber Romney types in the more affluent areas of the city. Plus, Paul will take a lot of those affluent area votes, too.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

I could see Santorum doing reasonably well in Allegeney county as well; he did represent the Eastern chunk of it a while back as a congressman, which could help him now (maybe?)    

[Keystone Phil]

I could see Santorum doing reasonably well in Allegeney county as well; he did represent the Eastern chunk of it a while back as a congressman, which could help him now (maybe?)    

Yeah, he'll do well and might even win but outside of the city, you have wealthy areas where Romney should have a good showing. Same with some bordering counties.

[J. J.]

I could see Santorum doing reasonably well in Allegeney county as well; he did represent the Eastern chunk of it a while back as a congressman, which could help him now (maybe?)    

Yes, his district was part of Allegheny County.  Following up on Phil, the district didn't include Pittsburgh, and included some moderately Republican areas west of Pittsburgh.

[Keystone Phil]

I could see Santorum doing reasonably well in Allegeney county as well; he did represent the Eastern chunk of it a while back as a congressman, which could help him now (maybe?)    

Yes, his district was part of Allegheny County.  Following up on Phil, the district didn't include Pittsburgh, and included some moderately Republican areas west of Pittsburgh.

For the record, I wasn't saying he represented Pittsburgh. I was just saying that outside of the city, the county has wealthy areas that would lean towards Mitt.

[J. J.]

I could see Santorum doing reasonably well in Allegeney county as well; he did represent the Eastern chunk of it a while back as a congressman, which could help him now (maybe?)    

Yes, his district was part of Allegheny County.  Following up on Phil, the district didn't include Pittsburgh, and included some moderately Republican areas west of Pittsburgh.

For the record, I wasn't saying he represented Pittsburgh. I was just saying that outside of the city, the county has wealthy areas that would lean towards Mitt.

That was the point I was trying to make.    Santorum represented some reasonable GOP areas, where there will be primary voters.

[Keystone Phil]

Newt's slate of delegates in PA 15 are set to endorse Rick.

[Keystone Phil]

Heard some good numbers tonight in a Republican area of Philly. Confirms some previous comments.

[Erc]

Newt's slate of delegates in PA 15 are set to endorse Rick.

CD 15, or 16?  If the former, I need to figure out who they are...

[Keystone Phil]

Newt's slate of delegates in PA 15 are set to endorse Rick.

CD 15, or 16?  If the former, I need to figure out who they are...

15 means...15.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Who wins Centre?

[J. J.]

Who wins Centre?

I'd bet Santorum.

[Keystone Phil]

Who wins Centre?

Paul will do "well" because of Penn State, Romney will win the affluent voters around State College but there's no reason why Santorum shouldn't run up big numbers there. He'll get delegates out of the area, too, since popular and powerful State Senator Corman is on Rick's side and running for delegate (Santorum got his start in politics by interning for Corman's Dad).