Canadian Senate elections

[RogueBeaver]

Under the American formula- 2 per province. What would its partisan composition be? Name nominees if you want, rather than just Generic L/C/NDP/BQ.

[Hatman 🍁]

That would mean 20 Senators. Quite unlikely...

[RogueBeaver]

Or use the current formula.

[Hatman 🍁]

Or use the current formula.

So, Quebec's 24 Senators would be elected based on those archaic Senate districts that were created before 1867 and dont even cover the entire province?

[Smid]

The Australian model is twelve Senators from each state, half elected at each election, using STV (but above-the-line voting makes it behave more like a closed list), plus two from each territory, with the territorial senators both elected at every election. That might work? I know it means more Senators than MPs in some provinces, which is contrary to your Constitution, but our Constitution sets a minimum of 5 MPs per state and doesn't require MPs to outnumber Senators in each state, just generally across the country.

[Hatman 🍁]

We should probably start this in the early 1990s, when Senate reform almost became reality.

[tpfkaw]

Well, let's suppose it's the same as the US system, but with 3 senators per province.  If we just simply use the province-wide results for '04 (for comparison's sake), '06 and '08, and average '08 and '11 for '10...

Alberta

'04: Conservative
'06: Conservative
'08: Conservative
'10: Conservative

Senate: 3 Conservatives

British Columbia

'04: Conservative
'06: Conservative
'08: Conservative
'10: Conservative

Senate: 3 Conservatives

Manitoba

'04: Conservative
'06: Conservative
'08: Conservative
'10: Conservative

Senate: 3 Conservatives

New Brunswick

'04: Liberal
'06: Liberal
'08: Conservative
'10: Conservative

Senate: 2 Conservatives, 1 Liberal

Newfoundland and Labrador

'04: Liberal
'06: Liberal
'08: Liberal
'10: Liberal

Senate: 3 Liberals

Nova Scotia

'04: Liberal
'06: Liberal
'08: Liberal
'10: Conservative

Senate: 2 Liberal, 1 Conservative

Ontario

'04: Liberal
'06: Liberal
'08: Conservative
'10: Conservative

Senate: 2 Conservative, 1 Liberal

Prince Edward Island

'04: Liberal
'06: Liberal
'08: Liberal
'10: Liberal

Senate: 3 Liberal

Quebec

'04: BQ
'06: BQ
'08: BQ
'10: BQ

Senate: 3 BQ

Saskatchewan

'04: Conservative
'06: Conservative
'08: Conservative
'11: Conservative

Senate: 3 Conservative

Total:

17 Tories, 10 Liberals, 3 Bloquistes

If territories are included:

Northwest Territories

'04: Liberal
'06: NDP
'08: NDP
'10: NDP

Senate: 3 NDP

Nunavut

'04: Liberal
'06: Liberal
'08: Conservative
'10: Conservative

Senate: 2 Conservative, 1 Liberal

Yukon

'04: Liberal
'06: Liberal
'08: Liberal
'10: Liberal

Senate: 3 Liberals

Total:

19 Tories, 14 Liberals, 3 NDP, 3 Bloquistes




Ironically, it's surprisingly representative of popular support, especially(!) if the territories are included.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yuck.

I could see NDP Senators getting elected in BC, Manitoba and Nova Scotia these days. Maybe even newfoundland if Jack Harris ran for Senate. Gary Doer would get elected to Senate for Manitoba and Chisholm or Alexa McDonough in Nova Scotia. And of course, Mulcair in Quebec.

In my time line that i've temporarily abandoned, I had made Senate districts, but each district was elected like in the U.S. Like, Ontario would have 24 Senators divided among 8 districts. Each Senator would have six year terms. Each district would have 3 Senators, and would be electing a different one every two years.

[Smid]

Wormy, Tories outpolled Grits in 2011 in PEI. Of course, candidate could make a difference.

[tpfkaw]

Wormy, Tories outpolled Grits in 2011 in PEI. Of course, candidate could make a difference.

Like I said, I averaged the results of '08 and '11.

[ottermax]

I think Australian style STV would work best for Canada, although maybe fewer Senators for some of the maritime provinces, and more for Ontario and Quebec?

Would Greens get seats? Or would the Senate just have provincial parties?

If it was done FPTP I'm sure most provinces would elect a mix of parties and base it more on the person than the party. I can't imagine BC having only Tory senators.

[RogueBeaver]

I think Australian style STV would work best for Canada, although maybe fewer Senators for some of the maritime provinces, and more for Ontario and Quebec?

Would Greens get seats? Or would the Senate just have provincial parties?

If it was done FPTP I'm sure most provinces would elect a mix of parties and base it more on the person than the party. I can't imagine BC having only Tory senators.

Depends on the region. For example, in Quebec the only Tory who could be elected province-wide might be Max Bernier. For the Liberals it's Trudeau- and both men have prime ministerial ambitions, so they wouldn't run. BQ wins both under FPTP.

[Smid]

Wormy, Tories outpolled Grits in 2011 in PEI. Of course, candidate could make a difference.

Like I said, I averaged the results of '08 and '11.

Sorry, I missed that. Quite right.