March 10 Kansas + miscellaneous islands primary/caucus **results thread**

[Mr. Morden]

Above: Matt Romney (son of Mitt) arrives in Guam last night.  He will speak at the territorial convention, where RNC convention delegates will be chosen.

It may still be Friday afternoon in the USA, but it's Saturday morning in the Asia/Pacific region, so the contests in Guam and Northern Mariana Islands are today.

Saturday, March 10 contests:

Kansas caucuses:

http://ksgop.org/caucus/

Caucuses begin at 10am Central / 11am Eastern.  Results must be reported to the the Kansas GOP headquarters by 5pm Central / 6pm Eastern.

http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/state/ks

AP results

Guam territorial convention:

http://mvguam.com/local/news/22594-romney-son-to-visit-guam-woo-gop-.html

Convention begins at 9am Guam time, and votes will be tallied by noon, Guam time.  Noon Saturday Guam time = 9pm US Eastern time on Friday night.

Northern Mariana Islands territorial convention:

Voting is between 7am and 7pm local time:

http://www.saipantribune.com/newsstory.aspx?newsID=117170&cat=1

They're in the same time zone as Guam, so 7pm Saturday local time = 4am Saturday US Eastern time.

Virgin Islands caucuses:

http://vigop.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/Rules-of-the-Virgin-Islands-Republican-Caucus-Approved.pdf

Caucus balloting begins at noon Atlantic time / 11am Eastern, and ends at 6pm Atlantic time / 5pm Eastern.

Wyoming county conventions:

Wyoming county conventions also wrap up on Saturday.

[Mr. Morden]

So yeah, the Guam convention starts in a little over an hour, and then results should be tallied about three hours after that.  But I don't know where they'll be reported.

And as mentioned, Mitt's son Matt Romney is speaking at the Guam convention.  He was also in the Northern Marianas yesterday to speak with local GOP leaders.  None of the other campaigns have sent any surrogates in person, but Santorum had an hour-long conference call with Guam Republicans a few days ago.

[Likely Voter]

I thought Romney already won WY?

http://articles.cnn.com/2012-02-29/politics/politics_primaries_1_wyoming-caucuses-romney-victory-romney-and-santorum?_s=PM:POLITICS

[J. J.]

I thought Romney already won WY?

http://articles.cnn.com/2012-02-29/politics/politics_primaries_1_wyoming-caucuses-romney-victory-romney-and-santorum?_s=PM:POLITICS

There are still a number of unassigned delegates.  I think only five have been given.

[realisticidealist]

I thought Romney already won WY?

http://articles.cnn.com/2012-02-29/politics/politics_primaries_1_wyoming-caucuses-romney-victory-romney-and-santorum?_s=PM:POLITICS

These are the county conventions. We had the precinct caucuses already.

[ajb]

"And on Friday the campaign touted the endorsement of Guam Gov. Eddie Baza Calvo, who told Pacific Daily News Romney "understands" the impact federal regulations have on isolated islands like his."

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/03/09/latest-2012-battle-guam/

A gubernatorial endorsement? Does that mean Romney will lose Guam?

[Minnesota Mike]

So yeah, the Guam convention starts in a little over an hour, and then results should be tallied about three hours after that.  But I don't know where they'll be reported.

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/dates/20120310

Looks Like CNN will have all the Caucus results, although how timely they will be....

[Inks.LWC Supports Chuck Hagel]

Why do we have predictions for Puerto Rico but not Guam, the Virgin Islands, and Northern Mariana Islands?

[Minnesota Mike]

Why do we have predictions for Puerto Rico but not Guam, the Virgin Islands, and Northern Mariana Islands?

Romney sweep

[Inks.LWC Supports Chuck Hagel]

Why do we have predictions for Puerto Rico but not Guam, the Virgin Islands, and Northern Mariana Islands?

Romney sweep

It'd still be fun to have them.  If you start saying we should only do states that will be competitive, we'd be leaving out MA, GA, VA, etc.

As for my Kansas prediction:

Santorum - 43%
Romney - 38%
Paul - 13%
Gingrich - 6%

[argentarius]

Why do we have predictions for Puerto Rico but not Guam, the Virgin Islands, and Northern Mariana Islands?

Romney sweep

It'd still be fun to have them.  If you start saying we should only do states that will be competitive, we'd be leaving out MA, GA, VA, etc.

As for my Kansas prediction:

Santorum - 43%
Romney - 38%
Paul - 13%
Gingrich - 6%

You are in for a rude awakening tomorrow.

[Inks.LWC Supports Chuck Hagel]

Why do we have predictions for Puerto Rico but not Guam, the Virgin Islands, and Northern Mariana Islands?

Romney sweep

It'd still be fun to have them.  If you start saying we should only do states that will be competitive, we'd be leaving out MA, GA, VA, etc.

As for my Kansas prediction:

Santorum - 43%
Romney - 38%
Paul - 13%
Gingrich - 6%

You are in for a rude awakening tomorrow.

How so?

[realisticidealist]

The Iowa county conventions are tomorrow too.

[True Federalist]

Why do we have predictions for Puerto Rico but not Guam, the Virgin Islands, and Northern Mariana Islands?

Probably because Dave only has Puerto Rico in his automatic maps, which makes sense in one respect, since Puerto Rico is the only one of then that has a shot at participating in the November elections anytime soon.

[argentarius]

Why do we have predictions for Puerto Rico but not Guam, the Virgin Islands, and Northern Mariana Islands?

Romney sweep

It'd still be fun to have them.  If you start saying we should only do states that will be competitive, we'd be leaving out MA, GA, VA, etc.

As for my Kansas prediction:

Santorum - 43%
Romney - 38%
Paul - 13%
Gingrich - 6%

You are in for a rude awakening tomorrow.

How so?

The Huckster won here with 60% after being thrashed on super tuesday, I think Santorum should be able to do very well. There's also the factor that Romney is not focusing on it. We could potentially see Santorum sweeping the delegates here if he does as well as Huckabee.

[Matthew]

My Kansas prediction
Santorum 51%
Romney 26%
Newt Gingrich 16%
Ron Paul 7%


Guam Prediction
Romney 68%
Santorum 21%
Newt Gingrich 8%
Ron Paul 3%
---
what occurred
Romney 83%


Virgin Islands
Romney 54%
Santorum 26%

Northern Mariana Islands
Romney 52%
Santorum 34%
Newt Gingrich 12%
Ron Paul 2%

[Inks.LWC Supports Chuck Hagel]

Why do we have predictions for Puerto Rico but not Guam, the Virgin Islands, and Northern Mariana Islands?

Romney sweep

It'd still be fun to have them.  If you start saying we should only do states that will be competitive, we'd be leaving out MA, GA, VA, etc.

As for my Kansas prediction:

Santorum - 43%
Romney - 38%
Paul - 13%
Gingrich - 6%

You are in for a rude awakening tomorrow.

How so?

The Huckster won here with 60% after being thrashed on super tuesday, I think Santorum should be able to do very well. There's also the factor that Romney is not focusing on it. We could potentially see Santorum sweeping the delegates here if he does as well as Huckabee.

I could see Santorum doing better than what I predicted, but I don't think he'll get over 50%.

[Torie]

I suspect Rick will break 50% in KS. It should be close to his best state in the nation. We shall see.

Happily for the Mittbots, KS does not have that if a candidate gets more than 50%, he gets all the at large delegates thingy (that rule is largely "reserved" for the Mittens states). It is all proportional, with any candidate getting 20% sharing in the spoils. Mittens should win KS-03 and get the 3 delegates there as well. So say Rick gets 52%, and Mittens gets 35% of the vote, that gives 15 at large delegates to Rick, and 10 to Mittens, and Rick gets 9 CD delegates, and Mittens gets 3 CD delegates, netting Rick 24 delegates, and Mittens 13, with 3 super delegates, more than likely going to Mittens, but say Rick gets 1, and Mittens gets 2. That gives Rick a net margin of 10 delegates over Romney (25-15) as a reward for one of his greatest triumphs.

Life is beautiful.  

[Lief]

The super-delegates are pledged to the winner of the state.

But I'm glad you find this sham democracy "beautiful." I'm sure the Republican base will as well when they don't turn out for your boy in November.

[Mr. Morden]

Some guy on Twitter who claims to be at the GOP convention in Guam writes:

http://twitter.com/#!/Anthony96931

It's a sweep for @MittRomney at the Guam Republican Convention.

Still waiting for confirmation from some official news source.

[Senator Snowstalker]

Don't a lot of the Pacific Islands have a ton of Mormons?

[Mr. Morden]

Pacific News Center reports on Twitter:

link

Guam GOP votes unanimously for Mitt Romney.

So I guess Romney gets more delegates out of Guam than he got out of New Hampshire?

[Torie]

The super-delegates are pledged to the winner of the state.

But I'm glad you find this sham democracy "beautiful." I'm sure the Republican base will as well when they don't turn out for your boy in November.

You are right about the super delegates Lief. Curious. So 27-13.  Think about it this way. Obama has his issues. The gas price thing strikes me as a particularly dangerous specter for him, feeding into the Pub fossil fuels narrative. So it is barely possible albeit quite unlikely that Rick could beat him, given the "right" chain of circumstances (without my vote of course, but whatever). Would you rather have Mittens or Rick as POTUS?  Just a thought.

[Lief]

I think Rick and Mitt would govern about the same as presidents. They'd appoint the same SCOTUS judges. They'd both be as dangerously belligerent towards Iran. If anything Rick Santorum might be willing to more often stand up to the Tea Party Congress, just because he actually has values and beliefs and potentially has some vague understanding of what it's like to worry about making ends meet deep down in him.

[Inks.LWC Supports Chuck Hagel]

Pacific News Center reports on Twitter:

link

Guam GOP votes unanimously for Mitt Romney.

So I guess Romney gets more delegates out of Guam than he got out of New Hampshire?

Only 6 are tied to today's caucus.

Lief, where are you getting information that the SDs are tied to the winner of hte state?