March 10 Kansas + miscellaneous islands primary/caucus **results thread**

[ajb]

can someone explain how the delegates would be different if Romney goes under 20 vs if he goes over 20? Did Romney pull out of KS in hopes that he wouldn't break 20?

If you are below 20%, you lose your proportional share of the 25 at large delegates, so if Mittens were held below 20%, he loses his 7 delegates, which is a fair amount of change. If Mittens knew it was going to be this tight, he would have dropped by Johnson County for a visit I suspect.

Yes. Romney getting over 20% was probably worth two extra delegates for Romney, and 4-5 extra for Santorum.
Not true. If Romney dropped below 20%, he would still get some at-large delegates, but so would Gingrich and Paul. With Romney above 20%, Gingrich and Paul don't get any.

[Torie]

can someone explain how the delegates would be different if Romney goes under 20 vs if he goes over 20? Did Romney pull out of KS in hopes that he wouldn't break 20?

If you are below 20%, you lose your proportional share of the 25 at large delegates, so if Mittens were held below 20%, he loses his 7 delegates, which is a fair amount of change. If Mittens knew it was going to be this tight, he would have dropped by Johnson County for a visit I suspect.

Not true. If Romney dropped below 20%, he would still get some at-large delegates, but so would Gingrich and Paul. With Romney above 20%, Gingrich and Paul don't get any.

Yup. "However, if only one candidate or no candidate receives the 20%, there is no threshold."  Odd little curveball. So 2 delegates were at stake for Mittens, and ironically, 5 for Rick, if Mittens fell just short of 20%, with those 7 lost delegates going to Newt and Paul. So maybe Rick is happy to give Mittens those two extra delegates.

[Lief 🗽]

It would have probably been ever so slightly better for Romney to get just under 20%, if only to fracture the anti-Romney delegates. But it doesn't really change much either way.

[ajb]

Fun fact: total number of votes for four remaining candidates in today's KS caucuses: 28 752
total vote for Barack Obama in 2008 KS caucuses: 27 172

[Erc]

Polls in the USVI should have closed a few minutes ago.  Delegates are directly elected (though Presidential Preference is listed next to the delegate); I don't know if there's also a beauty contest.

[Minnesota Mike]

Virgin Islands Official Ballot.

http://vigop.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/Official-Ballot-2012-Caucus.pdf

Only Ron Paul (6 )has a complete set of delegates. Romney (3),  Santorum (2) and Gingrich (2) have incomplete slates. 9 people are running uncommitted.

[argentarius]

Virgin Islands Official Ballot.

http://vigop.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/Official-Ballot-2012-Caucus.pdf

Only Ron Paul (6 )has a complete set of delegates. Romney (3),  Santorum (2) and Gingrich (2) have incomplete slates. 9 people are running uncommitted.

Sign of an upset?

[Erc]

Virgin Islands Official Ballot.

http://vigop.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/Official-Ballot-2012-Caucus.pdf

Only Ron Paul (6 )has a complete set of delegates. Romney (3),  Santorum (2) and Gingrich (2) have incomplete slates. 9 people are running uncommitted.

Rare fail by the Romney camp, especially given his institutional support here.

[Bacon King]

We have learnt something from this Caucus. There are mormons living in Lane County.

They must be recent arrivals or converts. 

To be fair, those sorts of surveys count people where their denomination's worship centers are located, not at their own residence. Mormon congregations exist in Finney County to the south and Scott County to the west; it's possible there are Mormon voters in Lane who cross the county line to go to church.

[Minnesota Mike]

Here is the VI GOP Website (says results coming soon)

http://vigop.com/

[argentarius]

Wait a second, this is groundbreaking... the GOP has held a caucus without any accusations of corruption and has sent in the results on time? That's a first.

[Bacon King]

Wait a second, this is groundbreaking... the GOP has held a caucus without any accusations of corruption and has sent in the results on time? That's a first.

Well, yeah, but the Kansas caucus still comes included with some of the standards: arbitrary rules (the silly threshold thing) and organizational shortcomings (the dozen counties that made voters go somewhere else to caucus)!

[RI]

Two counties left in Kansas, both on Colorado border.

[Niemeyerite]

Two counties left in Kansas, both on Colorado border.

Santorum country. So he may go from 51.2 to 51.5

[Lief 🗽]

I'm glad I stuck by my guns and didn't change my >50% prediction. It's an important two points that should hopefully give me some momentum going into the second half of the season.

[Torie]

Two counties left in Kansas, both on Colorado border.

Santorum country. So he may go from 51.2 to 51.5

Those 2 counties have about 100 times the number of cattle as people.

[ajb]

Two counties left in Kansas, both on Colorado border.

One of them, Greeley, is the smallest KS county in terms of population  (1247 as of the 2010 census). Sherman, the other, is slightly bigger, at 6010.
I think they're both on Mountain Time.

[ajb]

Two counties left in Kansas, both on Colorado border.

One of them, Greeley, is the smallest KS county in terms of population  (1247 as of the 2010 census). Sherman, the other, is slightly bigger, at 6010.
I think they're both on Mountain Time.

... and Santorum wins Sherman. 89 votes, to 30 Romney, 27 Gingrich, 23 Paul.

[Meeker]

Has there been any word out of Iowa or Nevada on the county conventions?

[Bacon King]

Has there been any word out of Iowa or Nevada on the county conventions?

Yeah, extremely favorable for Paul. A lot of the discussion is in this thread:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=150508.0

[RI]

Greeley County is in, and Santorum barely edged Romney there, of the 40 votes or so that were cast. Kansas is done.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The Lane County results could be because of the lack of a caucus in adjacent Scott County.  The LDS does have a ward (their name for a larger church) in Scott City.

[ajb]

CNN now showing 4 Romney delegates, 1 Paul delegate, from USVI. One delegate remains unaccounted for.

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/state/vi

[J. J.]

Just relating to the coverage:

NBC:  Big wins for Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum.

[Erc]

Just relating to the coverage:

NBC:  Big wins for Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum.

Yeah, but they're talking about Wyoming, not Guam.