March 10 Kansas + miscellaneous islands primary/caucus **results thread**

[Minnesota Mike]

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gNbv47075JA8AyZYEK_X71TXjOww?docId=ac12385cdd4545d28a42cbd82a830e18

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[Lincoln Republican]

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gNbv47075JA8AyZYEK_X71TXjOww?docId=ac12385cdd4545d28a42cbd82a830e18

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[J. J.]

CNN is showing KS:

Santorum:  33
Romney:  07

Paul picked up a delegate in VI

Tie for the day?

Media is also playing up WY, but counting the prior delegate assignments.

[Keystone Phil]

A pretty much perfect result in Kansas. A disastrous result (though expected) for Romney's near candidate best friend. Hoping it affects MS and AL.

[argentarius]

A pretty much perfect result in Kansas. A disastrous result (though expected) for Romney's near candidate best friend. Hoping it affects MS and AL.

Bad? Certainly. Disastrous? That's pushing it. It's overshadowed by our ninja delegates.

[J. J.]

A pretty much perfect result in Kansas. A disastrous result (though expected) for Romney's near candidate best friend. Hoping it affects MS and AL.

Literally breaking even is not a good day, when you are behind.

Tuesday looks worse.  That's the bad news.

The good news is, MO is after that, on 3/17.

IL, on 3/20, might well be the key.

[Matthew]

51 percent in a state that you should of won by 60 percent+ isn't very good. I'm predicting the offical numbers out of misr for Santorum on the 17th will fall below 50 percent.

NP-9
Guam-9
Vi-7
Kansas 7
=32 delegates

Santorum
Kansas 33

[ajb]

A pretty much perfect result in Kansas. A disastrous result (though expected) for Romney's near candidate best friend. Hoping it affects MS and AL.

Literally breaking even is not a good day, when you are behind.

Tuesday looks worse.  That's the bad news.

The good news is, MO is after that, on 3/17.

IL, on 3/20, might well be the key.

Not that relying on a series of contests in places with zero electoral votes to claim to have broken even is exactly a great day.

[Minnesota Mike]

51 percent in a state that you should of won by 60 percent+ isn't very good. I'm predicting the offical numbers out of misr for Santorum on the 17th will fall below 50 percent.

NP-9
Guam-9
Vi-7
Kansas 7
=32 delegates

Santorum
Kansas 33

Should have won by 60?

[J. J.]

A pretty much perfect result in Kansas. A disastrous result (though expected) for Romney's near candidate best friend. Hoping it affects MS and AL.

Literally breaking even is not a good day, when you are behind.

Tuesday looks worse.  That's the bad news.

The good news is, MO is after that, on 3/17.

IL, on 3/20, might well be the key.

Not that relying on a series of contests in places with zero electoral votes to claim to have broken even is exactly a great day.

It is about delegates, not electoral votes.  Bluntly, possibly excepting Paul, any of the other three candidates will win KS.

Santorum is going through a really bad period at this point.

[Keystone Phil]

A pretty much perfect result in Kansas. A disastrous result (though expected) for Romney's near candidate best friend. Hoping it affects MS and AL.

Bad? Certainly. Disastrous? That's pushing it. It's overshadowed by our ninja delegates.

You're a Newt supporter? Because he's to whom I was referring.

[Torie]

Nat Silver summed it all up. For Mittens to be in real danger of facing a brokered convention, about 5% of the Pub electorate needs to switch from Mittens to Rick. In other words, Mittens has about a 5% pad over and above the danger zone at the moment. Absent that 5% switch, it will be mathematically wrapped up when you count the supers after CA turns in its votes. What happened today changes nothing in that formula.  Mittens is right on track. And it looks like maybe he will be more than on track, if the current polls hold up in Alabama and Mississippi, and Mittens garners maybe 15 delegates or something like that that he (and Nate Silver for that matter) wasn't expecting two weeks ago.

[argentarius]

A pretty much perfect result in Kansas. A disastrous result (though expected) for Romney's near candidate best friend. Hoping it affects MS and AL.

Bad? Certainly. Disastrous? That's pushing it. It's overshadowed by our ninja delegates.

You're a Newt supporter? Because he's to whom I was referring.

Really? I haven't heard Newt being called his best friend before. And I wouldn't call his showing disastrous either. He had no expectations and is focusing on the south.

[Matthew]

51 percent in a state that you should of won by 60 percent+ isn't very good. I'm predicting the offical numbers out of misr for Santorum on the 17th will fall below 50 percent.

NP-9
Guam-9
Vi-7
Kansas 7
=32 delegates

Santorum
Kansas 33

Should have won by 60?

Should of gotten 60 percent...Kansas has less then 3 million people or around half of Missouri 6,010,688  

This means that Kansas is much more rural in its nature with far less population centers that Romney does good in. The majority of Kansas city is in Missouri with st.louis. 51 percent is good an I expect Santorum to win Missouri on the 17th, but maybe not by 55 percent.  

Kansas city, kansas has around 200 thousand people compared to the Missouri half that is over 500 thousand.

[Keystone Phil]

A pretty much perfect result in Kansas. A disastrous result (though expected) for Romney's near candidate best friend. Hoping it affects MS and AL.

Bad? Certainly. Disastrous? That's pushing it. It's overshadowed by our ninja delegates.

You're a Newt supporter? Because he's to whom I was referring.

Really? I haven't heard Newt being called his best friend before. And I wouldn't call his showing disastrous either. He had no expectations and is focusing on the south.

He's his new best friend because he keeps the Anti Romney vote split.

[RI]

Virgin Island totals:

Uncommitted 130 (33.85%)
Paul 112 (29.17%)
Romney 101 (26.30%)
Santorum 23 (5.99%)
Gingrich 18 (4.69%)

That elected delegates as such: Paul 1, Uncom 2, and Romney 3. One of the Uncom delegates subsequently pledged for Romney.

If you go by only the highest totaling delegate for each candidate, you get:

Romney 41 (29.93%)
Uncommitted 37 (27.01%)
Paul 29 (21.17%)
Santorum 15 (10.95%)
Gingrich 15 (10.95%)

[Lief 🗽]

What a joke.

[Likely Voter]

51 percent in a state that you should of won by 60 percent+ isn't very good

Should have won by 60?

Huckabee did win KS with 60%, so I suppose you could say that Rick "should have got 60."

However, since FL the only other state where Santorum hasn't outperformed Huckabee is GA (and VA, but Rick wasn't on the ballot). In general Rick is showing greater appeal. Averaging both of their results for the contests to date. Rick has an avg of 29%, whereas Huckabee had 21%.

[RI]

The 2008 caucus was also much lower turnout and a largely ignored contest that occured after McCain always had essentially wrapped it up. Additionally, Romney had dropped out, so no one was splitting the conservative vote with Huckabee, unlike now where Gingrich took votes from Santorum.

[RI]

One interesting thing about the Virgin Islands voting was that there was a strong divide between St. Croix and St. Thomas. Under either of the above metrics, Uncommitted won St. Croix, and Ron Paul won St. Thomas.

Total delegates split
St. Croix

Uncommitted 104 (44.64%)
Romney 78 (33.48%)
Paul 26 (11.16%)
Santorum 13 (5.58%)
Gingrich 12 (5.15%)

St. Thomas

Paul 86 (56.58%)
Uncommitted 27 (17.76%)
Romney 23 (15.13%)
Santorum 10 (6.58%)
Gingrich 6 (3.95%)

Highest delegate only split
St. Croix

Uncommitted 34 (36.17%)
Romney 27 (28.72%)
Gingrich 12 (12.77%)
Paul 11 (11.70%)
Santorum 10 (10.64%)

St. Thomas

Paul 18 (41.86%)
Romney 14 (32.56%)
Santorum 5 (11.63%)
Uncommitted 3 (6.98%)
Gingrich 3 (6.98%)

[Wisconsin+17]

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Yep, Santorum's ran a significantly better campaign. 

[Torie]

A pretty much perfect result in Kansas. A disastrous result (though expected) for Romney's near candidate best friend. Hoping it affects MS and AL.

Bad? Certainly. Disastrous? That's pushing it. It's overshadowed by our ninja delegates.

You're a Newt supporter? Because he's to whom I was referring.

Really? I haven't heard Newt being called his best friend before. And I wouldn't call his showing disastrous either. He had no expectations and is focusing on the south.

He's his new best friend because he keeps the Anti Romney vote split.

Newt dropping out actually nets Mittens a few delegates per Nate Silver. Well, about 10 delegates net if Newt hadn't been in the race to start with, and not much if Newt drops out now. It is obvious when you think about it. If Mittens with everyone around is on track with the supers to get an absolute majority of the delegates, it doesn't matter who has the other 45% to 49% of them or whatever. In short, this whole if only one "conservative" were in the race meme against the suspiciously moderate Mittens (I have to laugh every time I hear that one - I'm a moderate - Mitttens isn't - period), has been and remains way over hyped. There is no there, there. It only matters in absolute winner take all states, like Florida, where Mittens on his own one on one would have won anyway, since he got 46% on his own, and gets about a quarter of the Newt votes to boot. Ditto AZ, where Mittens got 47% on his own.

If Rick had not screwed up the delegate thing in VA, along with Newt, along with the 14 Ohio zombie delegates due to the Rick cf there, the 5% pad would be thinner, but they did cf themselves.

[J. J.]

Huckabee did win KS with 60%, so I suppose you could say that Rick "should have got 60."

However, since FL the only other state where Santorum hasn't outperformed Huckabee is GA (and VA, but Rick wasn't on the ballot). In general Rick is showing greater appeal. Averaging both of their results for the contests to date. Rick has an avg of 29%, whereas Huckabee had 21%.

I think making comparisons to 2008 is off the mark.  That was a situation where the voter knew that Huckabee could not win.  He was getting protest votes.

[ajb]

A pretty much perfect result in Kansas. A disastrous result (though expected) for Romney's near candidate best friend. Hoping it affects MS and AL.

Bad? Certainly. Disastrous? That's pushing it. It's overshadowed by our ninja delegates.

You're a Newt supporter? Because he's to whom I was referring.

Really? I haven't heard Newt being called his best friend before. And I wouldn't call his showing disastrous either. He had no expectations and is focusing on the south.

He's his new best friend because he keeps the Anti Romney vote split.

Newt dropping out actually nets Mittens a few delegates per Nate Silver. Well, about 10 delegates net if Newt hadn't been in the race to start with, and not much if Newt drops out now. It is obvious when you think about it. If Mittens with everyone around is on track with the supers to get an absolute majority of the delegates, it doesn't matter who has the other 45% to 49% of them or whatever. In short, this whole if only one "conservative" were in the race meme against the suspiciously moderate Mittens (I have to laugh every time I hear that one - I'm a moderate - Mitttens isn't - period), has been and remains way over hyped. There is no there, there.

According to that same Nate Silver piece, Santorum would have gained 110 delegates relative to what he's currently got if Gingrich were not in the race, thus reducing the gap between him and Romney by about a hundred delegates. He would also, by Silver's argument, have won SC, GA, OH and AK.

[Torie]

A pretty much perfect result in Kansas. A disastrous result (though expected) for Romney's near candidate best friend. Hoping it affects MS and AL.

Bad? Certainly. Disastrous? That's pushing it. It's overshadowed by our ninja delegates.

You're a Newt supporter? Because he's to whom I was referring.

Really? I haven't heard Newt being called his best friend before. And I wouldn't call his showing disastrous either. He had no expectations and is focusing on the south.

He's his new best friend because he keeps the Anti Romney vote split.

Newt dropping out actually nets Mittens a few delegates per Nate Silver. Well, about 10 delegates net if Newt hadn't been in the race to start with, and not much if Newt drops out now. It is obvious when you think about it. If Mittens with everyone around is on track with the supers to get an absolute majority of the delegates, it doesn't matter who has the other 45% to 49% of them or whatever. In short, this whole if only one "conservative" were in the race meme against the suspiciously moderate Mittens (I have to laugh every time I hear that one - I'm a moderate - Mitttens isn't - period), has been and remains way over hyped. There is no there, there.

According to that same Nate Silver piece, Santorum would have gained 110 delegates relative to what he's currently got if Gingrich were not in the race, thus reducing the gap between him and Romney by about a hundred delegates. He would also, by Silver's argument, have won SC, GA, OH and AK.

No, those delegates just move from the Newt column to the Rick column, which is irrelevant to the Romney systems engineering delegate blueprint. Just add the Newt and Rick totals together and consider them one candidate. The only wild card delegates really are the Paul delegates in a brokered convention. Rick would just put Newt on his ticket if need be to get the Newt delegates. What a team!