March 10 Kansas + miscellaneous islands primary/caucus **results thread**

[True Federalist]

I tend to disagree with you on this one Ernest. All else aside, at a minimum, it will truncate economic growth, increase unemployment over what it otherwise would be, slow down retail sales, and so forth. Even if it come down a bit later (how much?), damage will be done, and is being done as we speak, in the interim. It cost me $94 to fill my gas tank today. How many folks can afford that without having to cut back in a rather substantial way somewhere else? I remember listening to a speech by the CEO of Walmart during the last gas spike, and he said gas price increases really hurt Walmart sales. Folks buy gas to get to work and go to the supermarket, and cart the kids around, and cut back on buying underwear and T shirts.

As I acknowledged, high gas prices will have an indirect effect via their effect on the economy.  Indeed, they've already done their part by keeping the recovery so sluggish in 2011,  But 2011-12 is not shaping up to be 2007-08.  Last election cycle, gas prices had been averaging lower than they had been averaging this election cycle.  So far the spike has not been as severe in either absolute terms (the price of gas)  or relative terms (the change in the price of gas.

We're going to have to hit average gas prices of around $5/gallon between now and the election for the current price hikes to have a comparable political and economic impact as what 2008 saw.  Absent a war with Iran or some other externality that severely crimps world oil supplies, I just don't see $5/gallon being reached in that time frame.  We're number to high gas prices than we were four years ago because they've been high for so long.

[J. J.]

NMI- 1 Del per 6,000 pop

VI- 1 Del per 12,000 pop

Gaum- 1 Del per 18,000 Pop

California- 1 Del per 220,000 pop

Again, delegates are not based solely on population.

No sh**t.

And what is the problem with that?

[Torie]

OK Ernest, but there has been quite a spike up, like 80 cents maybe in the past 3-4 months or something, and my guess/instinct, without having really dug into it, is that most of the uptick is not going to be reversed. That kind of hit has to be depressive, from whatever was anticipated before.

[BigSkyBob]

NMI- 1 Del per 6,000 pop

VI- 1 Del per 12,000 pop

Gaum- 1 Del per 18,000 Pop

California- 1 Del per 220,000 pop

Again, delegates are not based solely on population.

They are determined by the establishment based on what is best for the establishment.

[Lіef]

Guam is 0.05% of the U.S. population though.

Delegates, not population.

Yes that's literally the point I was making. There is a discrepancy between the two.

[Beet]

Maybe it's to make up for the fact that they have no Senators.

[ajb]

Guam is 0.05% of the U.S. population though.

Delegates, not population.

Yes that's literally the point I was making. There is a discrepancy between the two.

They are kind of rotten boroughs.

[Mr. Morden]

Voting continues in the Northern Mariana Islands (commonly abbreviated CNMI, so we don't have to type as much) for another hour or so.  A few hours ago, Jason Osborne (who, again, works for the RNC) tweeted:

link

CNMI Caucus -- As of 1:37 pm, Romney taking 81% Gingrich with 3.6%; Paul with 3.2%; & Santorum with 1.8% -- 5 Hours left

No idea what fraction of the vote that represents, but it doesn't look good for the not-Romneys here.

[argentarius]

If we're counting SDs, then I think Romney wins the islands 27-0. I think he'll just about get 20% in Kansas (though this contest is the last thing in the world he needs) which will give him 6 delegates, to Santorum's 34. So 34-33 to Santorum.

[Mr. Morden]

Final results in NMI (posted via Twitter from the guy at the RNC):

Romney 87%
Santorum 6%
Paul 3%
Gingrich 3%

This is my only news source for this, since the major news outlets aren't covering this.  (And the local news outlets in NMI seem to be kind of a joke.)  CNN confirms that Romney wins both Guam and NMI, though doesn't give percentages:

http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/dates/20120310

Kansas caucuses begin in less than four hours.

[argentarius]

I think it's safe to say Romney will thump everyone in the Virgin Islands and will do the same in Samoa/Hawaii on Tuesday. Is Hawaii having a straw poll this year?

[J. J.]

I would still call it an outside chance, but there is an increasing possibility that Romney will a majority of the delegates today.

While Santorum will get a majority of the delegates in KS, I still expect Romney and Gingrich to pull a few.  It looks like it could be a situation where Santorum gets 75% of the delegates in KS, and Romney still wins the day.  I expect that, today, Romney will get a slight boost from Super Tuesday.

[Erc]

I would still call it an outside chance, but there is an increasing possibility that Romney will a majority of the delegates today.

While Santorum will get a majority of the delegates in KS, I still expect Romney and Gingrich to pull a few.  It looks like it could be a situation where Santorum gets 75% of the delegates in KS, and Romney still wins the day.  I expect that, today, Romney will get a slight boost from Super Tuesday.

In terms of sheer numbers, sure.  But we all knew that Romney was going to sweep the insular territories ahead of time.

More importantly, the media doesn't care about the insular territories and will take the Santorum win in Kansas (even if it isn't as big as some people expect) as a sign of Santorum's continued strength.

[J. J.]

I would still call it an outside chance, but there is an increasing possibility that Romney will a majority of the delegates today.

While Santorum will get a majority of the delegates in KS, I still expect Romney and Gingrich to pull a few.  It looks like it could be a situation where Santorum gets 75% of the delegates in KS, and Romney still wins the day.  I expect that, today, Romney will get a slight boost from Super Tuesday.

In terms of sheer numbers, sure.  But we all knew that Romney was going to sweep the insular territories ahead of time.

I did not expect the possibility of all 27 island delegates.  That is now a possibility.

More importantly, the media doesn't care about the insular territories and will take the Santorum win in Kansas (even if it isn't as big as some people expect) as a sign of Santorum's continued strength.

As a media story, like WA last week, it won't have very much impact.  It comes out on Saturday.

The story is yet to be written.  Let's assume Santorum wins a majority of the delegates in KS and has a big win.  The story is:

"Santorum Wins Kansas: Romney Increases Lead"

Now assume that Santorum wins KS, but not as strongly as many are predicting.  The story is:

"Romney Increases Lead: Santorum Weak in Kansas"

Whatever story comes out, any Santorum victory in KS (short of a 35 delegate victory) gets stepped on by the rest of the story.  As indicated, it won't be a big factor because of when the story comes out.

[True Federalist]

OK Ernest, but there has been quite a spike up, like 80 cents maybe in the past 3-4 months or something, and my guess/instinct, without having really dug into it, is that most of the uptick is not going to be reversed. That kind of hit has to be depressive, from whatever was anticipated before.

Actually the spike has been 50 cents in the past 3 months.  The current spike has come after a period of declining gas prices and is still 25 cents below the level prices were at ten months ago.

The mid 2008 spike was over a dollar and came after a period of steady gas prices.

I just do not see gas prices by themselves as being able to dent Obama's poll numbers sufficiently to prevent his reelection.  It will take a campaign by an opponent who can generate enthusiasm, and that absolutely does not describe Mitt Romney.  His successes to date have come by burying his opponents with negative ads at a rate far beyond their ability to respond.  He won't be able to do that in the general election.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

If Santorum wins the Kansas caucus, I really doubt the headlines are going to be anything as milquetoast as "Romney increases lead, Santorum weak in Kansas."

[Erc]

If Santorum wins the Kansas caucus, I really doubt the headlines are going to be anything as milquetoast as "Romney increases lead, Santorum weak in Kansas."

Unless Santorum barely ekes by (< 3% margin) or loses in Kansas, this is a good night for him.  Even the AP doesn't care about delegate arithmetic when writing its headlines.

Oh, and an actual AP source for the Northern Marianas result, with some actual numbers.

[Meeker]

Classic clueless J.J.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

Final results in NMI (posted via Twitter from the guy at the RNC):

Romney 87%
Santorum 6%
Paul 3%
Gingrich 3%

This is my only news source for this, since the major news outlets aren't covering this.  (And the local news outlets in NMI seem to be kind of a joke.)  CNN confirms that Romney wins both Guam and NMI, though doesn't give percentages:

http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/dates/20120310

Kansas caucuses begin in less than four hours.

Putin would envy that result.

[LINCOLN REPUBLICAN]

Classic clueless J.J.

Actually, J.J. is one of the more intelligent and insightful posters on this forum.

[I left.]

Classic clueless J.J.

Actually, J.J. is one of the more intelligent and insightful posters on this forum.

Maybe from your perspective.

[realisticidealist]

Full NMI results:

Romney 740 (87.26%)
Santorum 53 (6.25%)
Paul 28 (3.30%)
Gingrich 27 (3.18%)

[realisticidealist]

I believe voting in Kansas closes in 17 minutes.

[Lіef]

Apparently Romney has not sent anyone to speak for him in Wichita, which is not going over well...

@feliciasonmez: SegwickCo GOP Chairman on Romney not having anyone to speak for him in Wichita: "Apparently he chose to go to Guam today"

[LINCOLN REPUBLICAN]

Full NMI results:

Romney 740 (87.26%)
Santorum 53 (6.25%)
Paul 28 (3.30%)
Gingrich 27 (3.18%)