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| | |-+  March 10 Kansas + miscellaneous islands primary/caucus **results thread**
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Author Topic: March 10 Kansas + miscellaneous islands primary/caucus **results thread**  (Read 7856 times)
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Lief
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« Reply #25 on: March 09, 2012, 09:04:43 pm »
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Erc said so: http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=145763.msg3209072#msg3209072
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« Reply #26 on: March 09, 2012, 09:06:55 pm »

Pacific News Center reports on Twitter:

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Guam GOP votes unanimously for Mitt Romney.

So I guess Romney gets more delegates out of Guam than he got out of New Hampshire?


Only 6 are tied to today's caucus.

True, though if every single person attending the convention voted for Romney, then he must be getting the super delegates as well (since they presumably attended the convention).  So that's 9.  How many does Romney have out of New Hampshire?  About the same number?
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« Reply #27 on: March 09, 2012, 09:07:32 pm »
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I think Rick and Mitt would govern about the same as presidents. They'd appoint the same SCOTUS judges. They'd both be as dangerously belligerent towards Iran. If anything Rick Santorum might be willing to more often stand up to the Tea Party Congress, just because he actually has values and beliefs and potentially has some vague understanding of what it's like to worry about making ends meet deep down in him.

Well, Mittens is a bit more cautious about Iran, just saying that he would stop them from getting nukes, but not saying how. Rick is more into the bomb, bomb away narrative. But here is the thing.I think Rick might really believe what he says, while Mittens lately has said some things, that I don't really think he really believes, to get past the Pub post. I think Mittens in short would be smarter, more cautious and more pragmatic. Rick strikes as rather a hothead and impulsive. And on many policy issues, they will essentially be the same. But being a competent POTUS is more about policy positions in my view - a lot more. Issues and challenges and crises will come up, which we are not even discussing now. Whom do you trust most to come up with the most reasonable solutions?  

But this is hardly an objective exercise, so I understand where you are coming from.
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« Reply #28 on: March 09, 2012, 09:19:14 pm »
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Oh ok - you're just talking about Kansas.  I thought you were talking about Guam for some reason.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #29 on: March 09, 2012, 09:28:01 pm »

OK, looks like it wasn't quite unanimous on the first ballot.  The RNC external affairs director tweets:

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Romney wins Guam straw poll with 83 percent. Motion was offered asking all 9 delegates to pledge their support to Romney -passed unanimously.
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« Reply #30 on: March 09, 2012, 09:37:27 pm »
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Obama has his issues. The gas price thing strikes me as a particularly dangerous specter for him, feeding into the Pub fossil fuels narrative.

ARRRRGH!  Of all the stupid things Republicans are deluding themselves into believing about the coming election, the "If gas prices go up, we must win." is one of the worst.

First off, the available evidence indicates that unless an actual war with Iran breaks out, gas prices have hit a peak and are starting to come down again.  If there is an actual war, that war and how it starts will be far more influential on the election than what happens with gas prices.

Second, not too many people are blaming Obama for the gas price hikes now (18% overall , 5% of Dems, 20% of Inds, 33% of Reps, according to Pew).  This suggests that what is happening is that people who don't like Obama are looking for reasons to ding him and that since gas prices are up, that'll be one of the things to ding him, and that we aren't seeing people enraged by high gas prices then lashing out at Obama even when they hadn't done so before.

Third, remember 2008?  We had rising gas prices then and while McCain and Clinton both endorsed a gimmicky gas tax holiday, Obama dismissed it for the gimmick it was and benefited politically from it.  There are a few voters who will be impressed by gimmicks, such as Newt's promise to being gas down to $2.50/gal.  However, it appears the majority of voters are skeptical of magic wand claims.  Frankly I think Keystone XL so far has been a millstone for the GOP.  The Republican effort to push Obama to make a decision before he wanted to make a decision made them look like a party of gimmicks.

That isn't to say that gas prices won't have an indirect effect on the election.  If they remain high and cause the economy to stall, that stalled economy will help the Republicans come November.  But the direct effect will be minimal unless the Republicans keep pushing plans perceived as gimmicks, in which case it will be negative.
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« Reply #31 on: March 09, 2012, 09:42:11 pm »
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Gingrich promising that if he's elected, gas prices would drop to $2.50 was the most politically idiotic thing I've ever heard.  Part of me hoped he wins just so I could watch gas prices stay above that.  You can't promise a drop in gas prices.  The only way you could come close to doing that is ban exporting of oil, and that's not exactly a small government thing to do.
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« Reply #32 on: March 09, 2012, 09:42:59 pm »
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I tend to disagree with you on this one Ernest. All else aside, at a minimum, it will truncate economic growth, increase unemployment over what it otherwise would be, slow down retail sales, and so forth. Even if it come down a bit later (how much?), damage will be done, and is being done as we speak, in the interim. It cost me $94 to fill my gas tank today. How many folks can afford that without having to cut back in a rather substantial way somewhere else? I remember listening to a speech by the CEO of Walmart during the last gas spike, and he said gas price increases really hurt Walmart sales. Folks buy gas to get to work and go to the supermarket, and cart the kids around, and cut back on buying underwear and T shirts.

I fear I may be hijacking this thread a bit. Sorry. I will cease and desist. Smiley
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J. J.
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« Reply #33 on: March 09, 2012, 09:43:42 pm »
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Romney repeats even close to that in Northern Marianas and VI, it is almost impossible for Santorum to get a plurality for the day.
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J. J.

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« Reply #34 on: March 09, 2012, 09:45:16 pm »
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And why do rising gas prices hurt Americans so much?  Because we've become used to artificially low gas prices.  End the subsidies and let the market actually function, and you would've see people moving to alternative fuel for automobiles years ago.  If we keep trying to keep prices artificially low, Americans will keep being more and more dependent on the government for cheap gas, and we'll never solve the base problem.
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Torie
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« Reply #35 on: March 09, 2012, 09:47:19 pm »
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Gingrich promising that if he's elected, gas prices would drop to $2.50 was the most politically idiotic thing I've ever heard.  Part of me hoped he wins just so I could watch gas prices stay above that.  You can't promise a drop in gas prices.  The only way you could come close to doing that is ban exporting of oil, and that's not exactly a small government thing to do.

More nonsense has been said about gas prices, and energy, and the economic effect of the Keystone Pipeline, et al, by almost everyone in both parties (yes the Dems are worse here, but the Pubs are almost equally as delusional), in a shorter period of time, that is just flat out wrong and ignorant, economically and otherwise, than I can at the moment recall than about anything else, and I have been around a long time. Absent a lot of pot, I am in danger of turning into an irascible old man methinks. Hey maybe I will tell my pot doc next renewal time, that that is my medical issue for the year. Tongue
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« Reply #36 on: March 09, 2012, 09:50:15 pm »
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Gingrich promising that if he's elected, gas prices would drop to $2.50 was the most politically idiotic thing I've ever heard.  Part of me hoped he wins just so I could watch gas prices stay above that.  You can't promise a drop in gas prices.  The only way you could come close to doing that is ban exporting of oil, and that's not exactly a small government thing to do.

More nonsense has been said about gas prices, and energy, and the economic effect of the Keystone Pipeline, et al, by almost everyone in both parties (yes the Dems are worse here, but the Pubs are almost equally as delusional), in a shorter period of time, that is just flat out wrong and ignorant, economically and otherwise, than I can at the moment recall than about anything else, and I have been around a long time. Absent a lot of pot, I am in danger of turning into an irascible old man methinks. Hey maybe I will tell my pot doc next renewal time, that that is my medical issue for the year. Tongue

Keystone really pissed me off.  I wrote a column blasting the GOP for their actions there.  It was a dumb move to try to push the president to action.  The one thing I'd really like to see happen soon is end subsidies for oil companies (and quit with this stupid "gas tax holiday" crap), and let the market balance itself out.  If oil wins the day, so be it, but I think it'd help us move forward in establishing alternative fuels if we weren't artificially lowering prices.
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« Reply #37 on: March 09, 2012, 10:05:33 pm »
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My delegate prediction for KS is:

Santorum - 23
Romney - 9
Gingrich - 7
Paul - 1

For the day:

Romney - 27
Santorum - 25
Gingrich - 7
Paul - 8

A plurality for Romney, but not a majority.
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J. J.

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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #38 on: March 09, 2012, 10:08:31 pm »

OK, the AP now has a story on this, so we don't just have to rely on Twitter:

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Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney has notched another victory, albeit a small one.

Romney picked up all nine delegates from Guam. Republicans on the tiny Pacific island met Saturday at their state convention and backed the former Massachusetts governor in a unanimous show of hands.

Convention co-chair Jerry Crisostomo says though Guam's Republican National Convention delegates are technically uncommitted all pledged to vote for the candidate chosen at the state convention.
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« Reply #39 on: March 09, 2012, 11:11:01 pm »
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This is really an f'd up way to pick a nominee. I have no problem with these small territories having some representation at the convention but 9 Delegates each?   Way to many.
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« Reply #40 on: March 09, 2012, 11:29:41 pm »
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This is really an f'd up way to pick a nominee. I have no problem with these small territories having some representation at the convention but 9 Delegates each?   Way to many.

Not really.  It is less than 0.5%  of the total.
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J. J.

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« Reply #41 on: March 09, 2012, 11:33:50 pm »
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Guam is 0.05% of the U.S. population though.
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« Reply #42 on: March 09, 2012, 11:35:36 pm »
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This is really an f'd up way to pick a nominee. I have no problem with these small territories having some representation at the convention but 9 Delegates each?   Way to many.

American Samoa (pop. ~55,000) has 9 delegates.  This is, in fact, less screwed up than Niobrara County, Wyoming (pop. ~2500), whose 22 voters elected a delegate all to themselves this Wednesday.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #43 on: March 09, 2012, 11:37:57 pm »

This is really an f'd up way to pick a nominee. I have no problem with these small territories having some representation at the convention but 9 Delegates each?   Way to many.

But they have zero voting representatives in Congress and zero electoral votes, so this is their one opportunity to influence national politics.  The least we can do to make it up to them for their underrepresentation in general elections is let them keep this overrepresentation in the party nomination process.
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« Reply #44 on: March 09, 2012, 11:40:39 pm »
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Guam is 0.05% of the U.S. population though.

Delegates, not population.
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J. J.

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The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

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« Reply #45 on: March 09, 2012, 11:41:23 pm »
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NMI- 1 Del per 6,000 pop

VI- 1 Del per 12,000 pop

Gaum- 1 Del per 18,000 Pop

California- 1 Del per 220,000 pop
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« Reply #46 on: March 09, 2012, 11:48:07 pm »
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Fun old post by Richard Berg-Andersson on how we got here in the first place.
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« Reply #47 on: March 09, 2012, 11:49:33 pm »
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NMI- 1 Del per 6,000 pop

VI- 1 Del per 12,000 pop

Gaum- 1 Del per 18,000 Pop

California- 1 Del per 220,000 pop

Again, delegates are not based solely on population.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #48 on: March 09, 2012, 11:52:50 pm »
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NMI- 1 Del per 6,000 pop

VI- 1 Del per 12,000 pop

Gaum- 1 Del per 18,000 Pop

California- 1 Del per 220,000 pop

Again, delegates are not based solely on population.

No sh**t.

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« Reply #49 on: March 09, 2012, 11:52:59 pm »
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Guam may be only .05% of the population but it is worth a lot more than that in our hearts
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