March 10 Kansas + miscellaneous islands primary/caucus **results thread**

[J. J.]

I thought Romney already won WY?

http://articles.cnn.com/2012-02-29/politics/politics_primaries_1_wyoming-caucuses-romney-victory-romney-and-santorum?_s=PM:POLITICS

There are still a number of unassigned delegates.  I think only five have been given.

[J. J.]

Romney repeats even close to that in Northern Marianas and VI, it is almost impossible for Santorum to get a plurality for the day.

[J. J.]

My delegate prediction for KS is:

Santorum - 23
Romney - 9
Gingrich - 7
Paul - 1

For the day:

Romney - 27
Santorum - 25
Gingrich - 7
Paul - 8

A plurality for Romney, but not a majority.

[J. J.]

This is really an f'd up way to pick a nominee. I have no problem with these small territories having some representation at the convention but 9 Delegates each?   Way to many.

Not really.  It is less than 0.5%  of the total.

[J. J.]

Guam is 0.05% of the U.S. population though.

Delegates, not population.

[J. J.]

NMI- 1 Del per 6,000 pop

VI- 1 Del per 12,000 pop

Gaum- 1 Del per 18,000 Pop

California- 1 Del per 220,000 pop

Again, delegates are not based solely on population.

[J. J.]

NMI- 1 Del per 6,000 pop

VI- 1 Del per 12,000 pop

Gaum- 1 Del per 18,000 Pop

California- 1 Del per 220,000 pop

Again, delegates are not based solely on population.

No sh**t.

And what is the problem with that?

[J. J.]

I would still call it an outside chance, but there is an increasing possibility that Romney will a majority of the delegates today.

While Santorum will get a majority of the delegates in KS, I still expect Romney and Gingrich to pull a few.  It looks like it could be a situation where Santorum gets 75% of the delegates in KS, and Romney still wins the day.  I expect that, today, Romney will get a slight boost from Super Tuesday.

[J. J.]

I would still call it an outside chance, but there is an increasing possibility that Romney will a majority of the delegates today.

While Santorum will get a majority of the delegates in KS, I still expect Romney and Gingrich to pull a few.  It looks like it could be a situation where Santorum gets 75% of the delegates in KS, and Romney still wins the day.  I expect that, today, Romney will get a slight boost from Super Tuesday.

In terms of sheer numbers, sure.  But we all knew that Romney was going to sweep the insular territories ahead of time.

I did not expect the possibility of all 27 island delegates.  That is now a possibility.

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As a media story, like WA last week, it won't have very much impact.  It comes out on Saturday.

The story is yet to be written.  Let's assume Santorum wins a majority of the delegates in KS and has a big win.  The story is:

"Santorum Wins Kansas: Romney Increases Lead"

Now assume that Santorum wins KS, but not as strongly as many are predicting.  The story is:

"Romney Increases Lead: Santorum Weak in Kansas"

Whatever story comes out, any Santorum victory in KS (short of a 35 delegate victory) gets stepped on by the rest of the story.  As indicated, it won't be a big factor because of when the story comes out.

[J. J.]

AP is saying 30 for Santorum.  Is that the final?  How many for the others?

So it looks like KS will be Santorum's best state ever.

But if Mitt gets all 9 of the VI delegates, then Mitt will still end the day with more delegates with 34 vs. Rick's 33. But Rick should win the news cycle regardless

The news cycle will be as important as it was last week with WA and Fox, at least, was noting Romney takes the islands.

[J. J.]

Just relating to the coverage:

NBC:  Big wins for Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum.

[J. J.]

CNN is showing KS:

Santorum:  33
Romney:  07

Paul picked up a delegate in VI

Tie for the day?

Media is also playing up WY, but counting the prior delegate assignments.

[J. J.]

A pretty much perfect result in Kansas. A disastrous result (though expected) for Romney's near candidate best friend. Hoping it affects MS and AL.

Literally breaking even is not a good day, when you are behind.

Tuesday looks worse.  That's the bad news.

The good news is, MO is after that, on 3/17.

IL, on 3/20, might well be the key.

[J. J.]

A pretty much perfect result in Kansas. A disastrous result (though expected) for Romney's near candidate best friend. Hoping it affects MS and AL.

Literally breaking even is not a good day, when you are behind.

Tuesday looks worse.  That's the bad news.

The good news is, MO is after that, on 3/17.

IL, on 3/20, might well be the key.

Not that relying on a series of contests in places with zero electoral votes to claim to have broken even is exactly a great day.

It is about delegates, not electoral votes.  Bluntly, possibly excepting Paul, any of the other three candidates will win KS.

Santorum is going through a really bad period at this point.

[J. J.]

Huckabee did win KS with 60%, so I suppose you could say that Rick "should have got 60."

However, since FL the only other state where Santorum hasn't outperformed Huckabee is GA (and VA, but Rick wasn't on the ballot). In general Rick is showing greater appeal. Averaging both of their results for the contests to date. Rick has an avg of 29%, whereas Huckabee had 21%.

I think making comparisons to 2008 is off the mark.  That was a situation where the voter knew that Huckabee could not win.  He was getting protest votes.

[J. J.]

Uncommitted beat Ron Paul? That's just sad.

Uncommitted beat Rick Santorum, Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich? That's just sad.

Technically, uncommitted will win Pennsylvania.