Obama has his issues. The gas price thing strikes me as a particularly dangerous specter for him, feeding into the Pub fossil fuels narrative.
ARRRRGH! Of all the stupid things Republicans are deluding themselves into believing about the coming election, the "If gas prices go up, we must win." is one of the worst.
First off, the available evidence indicates that unless an actual war with Iran breaks out, gas prices have hit a peak and are starting to come down again. If there is an actual war, that war and how it starts will be far more influential on the election than what happens with gas prices.
Second, not too many people are blaming Obama for the gas price hikes now (18% overall , 5% of Dems, 20% of Inds, 33% of Reps, according to Pew). This suggests that what is happening is that people who don't like Obama are looking for reasons to ding him and that since gas prices are up, that'll be one of the things to ding him, and that we aren't seeing people enraged by high gas prices then lashing out at Obama even when they hadn't done so before.
Third, remember 2008? We had rising gas prices then and while McCain and Clinton both endorsed a gimmicky gas tax holiday, Obama dismissed it for the gimmick it was and benefited politically from it. There are a few voters who will be impressed by gimmicks, such as Newt's promise to being gas down to $2.50/gal. However, it appears the majority of voters are skeptical of magic wand claims. Frankly I think Keystone XL so far has been a millstone for the GOP. The Republican effort to push Obama to make a decision before he wanted to make a decision made them look like a party of gimmicks.
That isn't to say that gas prices won't have an indirect effect on the election. If they remain high and cause the economy to stall, that stalled economy will help the Republicans come November. But the direct effect will be minimal unless the Republicans keep pushing plans perceived as gimmicks, in which case it will be negative.
