March 10 Kansas + miscellaneous islands primary/caucus **results thread**

[argentarius]

Why do we have predictions for Puerto Rico but not Guam, the Virgin Islands, and Northern Mariana Islands?

Romney sweep

It'd still be fun to have them.  If you start saying we should only do states that will be competitive, we'd be leaving out MA, GA, VA, etc.

As for my Kansas prediction:

Santorum - 43%
Romney - 38%
Paul - 13%
Gingrich - 6%

You are in for a rude awakening tomorrow.

[argentarius]

Why do we have predictions for Puerto Rico but not Guam, the Virgin Islands, and Northern Mariana Islands?

Romney sweep

It'd still be fun to have them.  If you start saying we should only do states that will be competitive, we'd be leaving out MA, GA, VA, etc.

As for my Kansas prediction:

Santorum - 43%
Romney - 38%
Paul - 13%
Gingrich - 6%

You are in for a rude awakening tomorrow.

How so?

The Huckster won here with 60% after being thrashed on super tuesday, I think Santorum should be able to do very well. There's also the factor that Romney is not focusing on it. We could potentially see Santorum sweeping the delegates here if he does as well as Huckabee.

[argentarius]

If we're counting SDs, then I think Romney wins the islands 27-0. I think he'll just about get 20% in Kansas (though this contest is the last thing in the world he needs) which will give him 6 delegates, to Santorum's 34. So 34-33 to Santorum.

[argentarius]

I think it's safe to say Romney will thump everyone in the Virgin Islands and will do the same in Samoa/Hawaii on Tuesday. Is Hawaii having a straw poll this year?

[argentarius]

From the early results it looks bad for Paul, though if Gingrich and Romney are both under 20% that could really help Santorum.

[argentarius]

Anyone have a 2008 county map for the caucus?

[argentarius]

Haha, please let Romney come in fourth.

Not gonna happen it seems. Let's just root for a Santorum delegate sweep.

[argentarius]

Apparently Romney has not sent anyone to speak for him in Wichita, which is not going over well...

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lol, more subtle racism.

He has a point. Romney cares more about some island a million miles away than the conservative heartland.

[argentarius]

@fivethirtyeight @FHQ: If only Santorum is over 20%, then no threshhold. Only applies if 2 are over 20% KS rules: #kscaucus

Damn I misread the rules. So if the results were as they are now at large Paul would get 2, Gingrich/Romney 5 each and Santorum 28. So should Santorum actually be hoping Romney gets over 20%?

[argentarius]

FFS Romney shutting out Paul and Gingrich. How many people live in those other counties around KC? And why do all the counties that report have substantial numbers but many counties don't even vote? Do they just merge counties for the day?

[argentarius]

I think there's a decent chance of that. Not really any great counties left for him.

Surely KC? Also you may think a lot of the grey counties are yet to report, many have but there are no voters there, like last time.

[argentarius]

11 rural precincts left. Romney has to go down .7% for me to be happy. Don't let me down now, bible-beaters.

[argentarius]

Virgin Islands Official Ballot.

http://vigop.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/Official-Ballot-2012-Caucus.pdf

Only Ron Paul (6 )has a complete set of delegates. Romney (3),  Santorum (2) and Gingrich (2) have incomplete slates. 9 people are running uncommitted.

Sign of an upset?

[argentarius]

Wait a second, this is groundbreaking... the GOP has held a caucus without any accusations of corruption and has sent in the results on time? That's a first.

[argentarius]

A pretty much perfect result in Kansas. A disastrous result (though expected) for Romney's near candidate best friend. Hoping it affects MS and AL.

Bad? Certainly. Disastrous? That's pushing it. It's overshadowed by our ninja delegates.

[argentarius]

A pretty much perfect result in Kansas. A disastrous result (though expected) for Romney's near candidate best friend. Hoping it affects MS and AL.

Bad? Certainly. Disastrous? That's pushing it. It's overshadowed by our ninja delegates.

You're a Newt supporter? Because he's to whom I was referring.

Really? I haven't heard Newt being called his best friend before. And I wouldn't call his showing disastrous either. He had no expectations and is focusing on the south.

[argentarius]

Ron Paul has actually won the popular vote somewhere? This is the happiest day of my life. Odd that an organisation so astute at getting the delegates couldn't manage them here. I guess they were all too overwhelmed.

[argentarius]

Uncommitted beat Ron Paul? That's just sad.

Uncommitted beat Rick Santorum, Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich? That's just sad.