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Author Topic: The Battle Continues, But The Numbers Have Been Crunched...  (Read 2371 times)
Politico
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« on: March 11, 2012, 12:13:06 am »
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...and there is virtually no way to deny Romney the nomination short of upsets in winner-take-all California, New Jersey and *drum roll* Utah. Good luck with that!

If Romney wins Mississippi, the polar opposite of Romney's home state of Massachusetts, it is time for Santorum and Gingrich to endorse Romney. If they continue this circus, they are only helping the cause of Barack Obama and Co...

Congratulations Winfield!

« Last Edit: March 11, 2012, 12:38:03 am by Politico »Logged

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« Reply #1 on: March 11, 2012, 12:23:36 am »
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I agree- Congratulations to you too Politico but let's see if Romney has any gaffes or other issues before the fat lady sings
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« Reply #2 on: March 11, 2012, 12:24:56 am »
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...the numbers have been crunched, and there is virtually no way to deny Romney the nomination short of upsets in California, New Jersey and *drum roll* Utah. Good luck with that!

Congratulations Winfield!
I think romney will win California but lets all remember that everyone seemed about ready to call the whole thing for romney right after NH. and then he lost SC and Fl seemed to be in doubt for a second. Then he bounced back with NV only to receive an epic ass kicking by Santorum in 3/3 states. He lost effin Colorado of all places, his 2nd best 08 state. So it is not out of the realm of possibility that he stumbles again.  
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« Reply #3 on: March 11, 2012, 12:26:19 am »
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California is not a lock against Gingrich, he got very close in one of his surges.
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« Reply #4 on: March 11, 2012, 12:28:41 am »
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Cool, then once Romney wins those three states Santorum and Gingrich will drop out. Until then, we'll keep letting the American people vote. Why are the Romneybots so disdainful of democracy?
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« Reply #5 on: March 11, 2012, 12:35:21 am »

So to force an "open" convention, Romney needs to lose votes in California, New Jersey, and Utah?

Say, any shot Huntsman will get back in the race?

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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #6 on: March 11, 2012, 12:50:00 am »

California is mostly WTA by CD, not WTA statewide.  There's a smaller number of at-large delegates that go to the statewide winner.  Same with Wisconsin and Maryland, and probably a few others that I'm not thinking of at the moment.
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« Reply #7 on: March 11, 2012, 12:55:00 am »
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California is mostly WTA by CD, not WTA statewide.

It's quasi-WTA statewide when you win most every CD Wink

Sorry, folks, but this circus is over even if some people think it's not.
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« Reply #8 on: March 11, 2012, 12:58:31 am »

California is mostly WTA by CD, not WTA statewide.

It's practically WTA statewide when you win most every CD Wink

And obviously, if Romney wins most every CD, he'll be the nominee.  I'll defer to the voters of California as to whether they want to do that rather than pre-judge the outcome three months in advance.  Wink
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« Reply #9 on: March 11, 2012, 01:01:41 am »
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California is mostly WTA by CD, not WTA statewide.

It's quasi-WTA statewide when you win most every CD Wink

Sorry, folks, but this circus is over even if some people think it's not.

You aren't familiar with the California GOP or California electoral politics, are you?

It would be hard for Santorum to take a majority but he can take a good chunk here if he keeps this things competitive.
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« Reply #10 on: March 11, 2012, 01:59:32 am »
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Wasn't Santorum at CA-2 at one point?

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« Reply #11 on: March 11, 2012, 02:31:17 am »
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California is mostly WTA by CD, not WTA statewide.

It's quasi-WTA statewide when you win most every CD Wink

Sorry, folks, but this circus is over even if some people think it's not.
Sorry, folks, but there are a ton of CD's in CA that are neither rich enough nor Mormon enough to love Romney. So there's no chance he'll win "most every CD" if there's still a competitive race by then.
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« Reply #12 on: March 11, 2012, 02:34:35 am »
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Rick will win a few CDs in CA. CA is a very diverse state and once you get away from the coasts it is essentially a red state.

There is no doubt that June is going to be good for Romney, but the period between the Yankee primaries in late APril and the CA primary is going to be brutal for Romney. He will be lucky to win 1 out of 8 states in May, the last of which will be the big state of TX. Romney is just lucky that TX has super-proportionate rules.  If TX was WTA or even WTA by CD, Romney would have a much harder time making his 1144, or at least making it without unbound delegates putting him over the top.
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« Reply #13 on: March 11, 2012, 05:38:33 am »
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...the numbers have been crunched, and there is virtually no way to deny Romney the nomination short of upsets in California, New Jersey and *drum roll* Utah. Good luck with that!

Congratulations Winfield!
I think romney will win California but lets all remember that everyone seemed about ready to call the whole thing for romney right after NH. and then he lost SC and Fl seemed to be in doubt for a second. Then he bounced back with NV only to receive an epic ass kicking by Santorum in 3/3 states. He lost effin Colorado of all places, his 2nd best 08 state. So it is not out of the realm of possibility that he stumbles again.  

You forget that Paul would have beat him in Maine if not for those votes in the river.
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« Reply #14 on: March 11, 2012, 06:40:52 am »
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California is mostly WTA by CD, not WTA statewide.

It's quasi-WTA statewide when you win most every CD Wink

Sorry, folks, but this circus is over even if some people think it's not.

I see you are reduced to arguing the horse race on Romney's behalf. He can't run on his record, such as Obamacare lite. He can't run on past as a Wall Street insider wheeler-dealer after the bailouts.  And, he can't run on his campaign or stump performance. Who really believes he is a Southerner? "Vote Romney, the fix is on anyway!," is hardly a ringing endorsement of the man. Frankly, to paraphrase Arch Moore's campaign slogan against Jay Rockerfeller: "Make them steal them all, Newt and Rick!"
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« Reply #15 on: March 11, 2012, 06:44:00 am »
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California is mostly WTA by CD, not WTA statewide.

It's practically WTA statewide when you win most every CD Wink

And obviously, if Romney wins most every CD, he'll be the nominee.  I'll defer to the voters of California as to whether they want to do that rather than pre-judge the outcome three months in advance.  Wink


Heaven forbid elections be decided by actual voters rather than wannabe pundits.
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« Reply #16 on: March 11, 2012, 11:47:37 am »
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You forget that Paul would have beat him in Maine if not for those votes in the river.

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« Reply #17 on: March 11, 2012, 05:58:56 pm »
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...the numbers have been crunched, and there is virtually no way to deny Romney the nomination short of upsets in California, New Jersey and *drum roll* Utah. Good luck with that!

Congratulations Winfield!
I think romney will win California but lets all remember that everyone seemed about ready to call the whole thing for romney right after NH. and then he lost SC and Fl seemed to be in doubt for a second. Then he bounced back with NV only to receive an epic ass kicking by Santorum in 3/3 states. He lost effin Colorado of all places, his 2nd best 08 state. So it is not out of the realm of possibility that he stumbles again.  

You forget that Paul would have beat him in Maine if not for those votes in the river.

The problem with throwing ballots into the river is that they could conceivably turn up someday.

The best thing is just to burn them then dispose of the ashes so they cannot be somehow forensically reconstructed.

Smiley
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« Reply #18 on: March 11, 2012, 07:41:30 pm »
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...the numbers have been crunched, and there is virtually no way to deny Romney the nomination short of upsets in California, New Jersey and *drum roll* Utah. Good luck with that!

Congratulations Winfield!
I think romney will win California but lets all remember that everyone seemed about ready to call the whole thing for romney right after NH. and then he lost SC and Fl seemed to be in doubt for a second. Then he bounced back with NV only to receive an epic ass kicking by Santorum in 3/3 states. He lost effin Colorado of all places, his 2nd best 08 state. So it is not out of the realm of possibility that he stumbles again.  

You forget that Paul would have beat him in Maine if not for those votes in the river.

The problem with throwing ballots into the river is that they could conceivably turn up someday.

The best thing is just to burn them then dispose of the ashes so they cannot be somehow forensically reconstructed.

Smiley

I think the Fed prints money on the uncounted Paul ballots.
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Politico
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« Reply #19 on: March 12, 2012, 02:23:00 pm »
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You folks are more than welcome to crunch the numbers yourself. Do it. It will upset you even more than my post. This race is almost over, and if Romney wins MS it will probably be the nail in the coffin, especially if he adds AL.
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« Reply #20 on: March 12, 2012, 03:20:42 pm »
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You folks are more than welcome to crunch the numbers yourself. Do it. It will upset you even more than my post. This race is almost over, and if Romney wins MS it will probably be the nail in the coffin, especially if he adds AL.
Hopefully the Republican electorate is dumb enough to keep voting for Santorum even after he lost, and Paultards cause shenanigans at the convention.
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« Reply #21 on: March 12, 2012, 03:43:59 pm »
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You folks are more than welcome to crunch the numbers yourself. Do it. It will upset you even more than my post. This race is almost over, and if Romney wins MS it will probably be the nail in the coffin, especially if he adds AL.
Hopefully the Republican electorate is dumb enough to keep voting for Santorum even after he lost, and Paultards cause shenanigans at the convention.

No question about it... Been running the numbers a dozen different ways, but can't find any way for Santorum to win a majority without major blow outs in Texas, Pa with majorities within Ill, Califorina, New york. Most importantly at least the majoritiy within the rest of the midwest in delegates.

I just did some math getting 870 for Santorum.
I gave him 30-Ill, 95-Calforina, 90-Texas, 45-misr, 25 neb, oregon 8, Montana 20, gave him majorities in new york, 45 in pa, majority within LA, indiana-30. To give some idea of what I did.

Considering people will start going towards Romney by mid May. I doubt Calforina and likely texas.


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« Reply #22 on: March 12, 2012, 04:13:54 pm »
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TX was +27 for Santorum.
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« Reply #23 on: March 12, 2012, 04:21:36 pm »
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Romney will certainly win the nomination. If he wins AL or MS tomorrow, that should be a sign for the others to drop out.
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« Reply #24 on: March 12, 2012, 05:15:05 pm »
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Why do Romney supporters pretend to not understand that the threshold that needs to be crossed for them to claim victory is not that no other candidate can get a first round majority, but that Romney can get a first round majority?  That is not yet certain.  If Romney arrives in Tampa with a plurality but not a majority, then he probably will not be the nominee.
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