The Battle Continues, But The Numbers Have Been Crunched...

[Fritz]

Why do Romney supporters pretend to not understand that the threshold that needs to be crossed for them to claim victory is not that no other candidate can get a first round majority, but that Romney can get a first round majority?  That is not yet certain.  If Romney arrives in Tampa with a plurality but not a majority, then he probably will not be the nominee.

Explain your reasoning?   If Romney arrives in Tampa with a plurality but not a majority, he will still in all likelihood be the nominee, being the candidate with the most votes in the end.  Under what scenario does Romney not end up as the nominee?

[ModerateCoward]

Why do Romney supporters pretend to not understand that the threshold that needs to be crossed for them to claim victory is not that no other candidate can get a first round majority, but that Romney can get a first round majority?  That is not yet certain.  If Romney arrives in Tampa with a plurality but not a majority, then he probably will not be the nominee.

Explain your reasoning?   If Romney arrives in Tampa with a plurality but not a majority, he will still in all likelihood be the nominee, being the candidate with the most votes in the end.  Under what scenario does Romney not end up as the nominee?

The nominee will be unelectable Romney(with Santorum or Gingrich as vice president, or end the fed on his platform) rather than Romney, or a compromise candidate.

[True Federalist]

Why do Romney supporters pretend to not understand that the threshold that needs to be crossed for them to claim victory is not that no other candidate can get a first round majority, but that Romney can get a first round majority?  That is not yet certain.  If Romney arrives in Tampa with a plurality but not a majority, then he probably will not be the nominee.

Explain your reasoning?   If Romney arrives in Tampa with a plurality but not a majority, he will still in all likelihood be the nominee, being the candidate with the most votes in the end.  Under what scenario does Romney not end up as the nominee?

If Romney arrives in Tampa with only a plurality then unless he is only a few votes shy of a majority, I think a dark horse candidate will arise, most likely someone who has endorsed Romney, but who either the Santorum or Gingrich camps can live with as a face-saving compromise for all.  Might even have a few platform planks tossed in to appease the Paulites so as to keep the convention quiet.

[Taft]

As usual, I find myself splitting the baby on this.  I don't think that Romney has to get to 1144 exactly in pledged delegates to win...but he has to get pretty close.  If he is on 1100, then I'd hand it to him on available unpledged delegates.

However, if he has a plurality around 1000 or so (and particularly if there's a nasty lump late in the season such as an upset in CA or a blowout in TX), I think it's a much dodgier proposition.  If it were a plurality around 900-950, then I think Romney would probably be in deep, deep trouble.

For the record, I'd put the 50/50 line somewhere around 1025 or so.

[milhouse24]

Romney will need to pick a VP to appease the primary voters at the convention.  There are only a few choices with the name recognition to prevent a riot. 

But I think if Romney makes smart moves, he can narrowly win against Obama.

[BigSkyBob]

Romney will need to pick a VP to appease the primary voters at the convention.  There are only a few choices with the name recognition to prevent a riot. 

But I think if Romney makes smart moves, he can narrowly win against Obama.

Measuring the drapes, eh? Perhaps, it's time to start thinking about whom would be Santorum's smart choice in order to beat Obama if he wins the nomination.

[Politico]

Romney will need to pick a VP to appease the primary voters at the convention.  There are only a few choices with the name recognition to prevent a riot.  

But I think if Romney makes smart moves, he can narrowly win against Obama.

Measuring the drapes, eh? Perhaps, it's time to start thinking about whom would be Santorum's smart choice in order to beat Obama if he wins the nomination.

How? Santorum could beat Romney 60-30 in the South and Midwest for the rest of the contest, and still not win the nomination. It is virtually impossible for Rick Santorum to win the nomination unless Romney collapses in places like California, New Jersey and Utah. Even tonight he only beat Romney by one delegate in Mississippi and nine delegates in Alabama. We will see what happens in Hawaii and America Samoa, but I suspect they will help Romney eat away at those ten delegates Santorum picked up between AL/MS.

End result: Even after tonight, Romney still has twice as many delegates as Santorum.

Anybody who says Santorum can win the nomination needs to crunch the numbers and present their case. I see no way he can even surpass Romney for a plurality, let alone get to 1144.

[GM Griffin]

Romney's got this, especially if the unpledged delegates have to decide it.

CNN's currently projecting Romney's delegate count at 489 (459 P, 30 U). As Politico said, Romney will no doubt carry CA, NJ & UT, amassing a total of 262 delegates.

751.

If Romney were to garner only 25% of the unpledged delegates (142) from here on out? 893.
He'd need 251 pledged delegates out of 1,027 (excludes CA, NJ, UT) between now and the end.

If Romney got 50% of the unpledged delegates from here on out? 1,034.
He'd need 110 pledged delegates out of 1,027 (excludes CA, NJ, UT) between now and the end.

If Romney got a proportional amount of unpledged delegates based on current amounts (85%) from here on out? 1,204.

It's over, ya'll. Go have some cheesy grits. There might be a brokered convention but in the end, it's only going to favor the establishment candidate's chances even more (when compared to a plurality of the national Republican electorate).

[Mr. Morden]

Romney's got this, especially if the unpledged delegates have to decide it.

CNN's currently projecting Romney's delegate count at 489 (459 P, 30 U). As Politico said, Romney will no doubt carry CA, NJ & UT, amassing a total of 262 delegates.

Your math doesn't work here, as California isn't winner take all statewide.  It's WTA by congressional district.  You think there's "no doubt" that Romney wins every single CD?

[GM Griffin]

Romney's got this, especially if the unpledged delegates have to decide it.

CNN's currently projecting Romney's delegate count at 489 (459 P, 30 U). As Politico said, Romney will no doubt carry CA, NJ & UT, amassing a total of 262 delegates.

Your math doesn't work here, as California isn't winner take all statewide.  It's WTA by congressional district.  You think there's "no doubt" that Romney wins every single CD?

Meh, a rounding error. To calculate that would be an assumption one step more than I wanted to go and not one that I think carries more than 30 delegates of merit.

[Senator Sbane]

Romney could win CA by 20 points and not carry every CD. That being said Romney does have an advantage. He will likely win every CD in the Bay Area (maybe a surprise in the east bay but likely it will just be closer than the rest) and most in LA county where there aren't many Republicans. He will lose in the Central Valley and the Inland Empire outside of the Palm Springs area. Inland OC and LA county will be areas to watch. Still, Romney wins with 10 points even with only Santorum and Paul opposing him and will easily win a majority of CD's.

[Mr. Morden]

That being said Romney does have an advantage. He will likely win every CD in the Bay Area (maybe a surprise in the east bay but likely it will just be closer than the rest) and most in LA county where there aren't many Republicans.

What are the registration requirements for that primary?  If Dems wanted to mess with the GOP primary, could they Operation Hilarity a few delegates towards Santorum?  Presumably it wouldn't take many voters to do so.

[GM Griffin]

Romney could win CA by 20 points and not carry every CD. That being said Romney does have an advantage. He will likely win every CD in the Bay Area (maybe a surprise in the east bay but likely it will just be closer than the rest) and most in LA county where there aren't many Republicans. He will lose in the Central Valley and the Inland Empire outside of the Palm Springs area. Inland OC and LA county will be areas to watch. Still, Romney wins with 10 points even with only Santorum and Paul opposing him and will easily win a majority of CD's.

I agree with this. Like I said before, it was a calculation that I think is a rounding error for all intensive purposes. The geographic area you're talking about is rather vast but sparse; all of that adds up (with the exception of OC) to no more than 10 congressional districts @ 3 apiece. There are certainly millions of Californians extreme enough to go for Santorum but the new lines do a good job at keeping them divided and/or isolated, no matter how non-partisan they're supposed to be.

Still, looking at my other numbers, even if you throw Santorum 100 delegates from California, Romney's still going to have major leeway when it comes to getting the combined number of pledged and unpledged to walk with this thing.

[Senator Sbane]

That being said Romney does have an advantage. He will likely win every CD in the Bay Area (maybe a surprise in the east bay but likely it will just be closer than the rest) and most in LA county where there aren't many Republicans.

What are the registration requirements for that primary?  If Dems wanted to mess with the GOP primary, could they Operation Hilarity a few delegates towards Santorum?  Presumably it wouldn't take many voters to do so.

Only Republicans get to vote, not even Independents.

[Senator Sbane]

Romney could win CA by 20 points and not carry every CD. That being said Romney does have an advantage. He will likely win every CD in the Bay Area (maybe a surprise in the east bay but likely it will just be closer than the rest) and most in LA county where there aren't many Republicans. He will lose in the Central Valley and the Inland Empire outside of the Palm Springs area. Inland OC and LA county will be areas to watch. Still, Romney wins with 10 points even with only Santorum and Paul opposing him and will easily win a majority of CD's.

I agree with this. Like I said before, it was a calculation that I think is a rounding error for all intensive purposes. The geographic area you're talking about is rather vast but sparse; all of that adds up (with the exception of OC) to about ten congressional districts @ 3 apiece. There are certainly millions of Californians extreme enough to go for Santorum but the Democratically-drawn lines do a good job at keeping them divided and/or isolated.

Still, looking at my other numbers, even if you throw Santorum 100 delegates from California, Romney's still going to have major leeway when it comes to getting the combined number of pledged and unpledged to walk with this thing.

I'm pretty sure the new districts will be used, won't they? And they aren't drawn by the Democrats and aren't a bipartisan gerrymander like the current districts. I don't know whether the new lines are more beneficial to Santorum or not. I suspect they are, just slightly. Two districts I can think of that will be more beneficial for him are the Riverside area district that does not go into wealthy areas of OC anymore and the San Joaquin county district that does not pick up wealthy Bay Area suburbs.

[Mr. Morden]

That being said Romney does have an advantage. He will likely win every CD in the Bay Area (maybe a surprise in the east bay but likely it will just be closer than the rest) and most in LA county where there aren't many Republicans.

What are the registration requirements for that primary?  If Dems wanted to mess with the GOP primary, could they Operation Hilarity a few delegates towards Santorum?  Presumably it wouldn't take many voters to do so.

Only Republicans get to vote, not even Independents.

But how does party registration work in California?  Can you just show up at the polls and say "I'm a Republican", or do you have to fill out a registration card weeks/months in advance?

[GM Griffin]

Romney could win CA by 20 points and not carry every CD. That being said Romney does have an advantage. He will likely win every CD in the Bay Area (maybe a surprise in the east bay but likely it will just be closer than the rest) and most in LA county where there aren't many Republicans. He will lose in the Central Valley and the Inland Empire outside of the Palm Springs area. Inland OC and LA county will be areas to watch. Still, Romney wins with 10 points even with only Santorum and Paul opposing him and will easily win a majority of CD's.

I agree with this. Like I said before, it was a calculation that I think is a rounding error for all intensive purposes. The geographic area you're talking about is rather vast but sparse; all of that adds up (with the exception of OC) to about ten congressional districts @ 3 apiece. There are certainly millions of Californians extreme enough to go for Santorum but the Democratically-drawn lines do a good job at keeping them divided and/or isolated.

Still, looking at my other numbers, even if you throw Santorum 100 delegates from California, Romney's still going to have major leeway when it comes to getting the combined number of pledged and unpledged to walk with this thing.

I'm pretty sure the new districts will be used, won't they? And they aren't drawn by the Democrats and aren't a bipartisan gerrymander like the current districts. I don't know whether the new lines are more beneficial to Santorum or not. I suspect they are, just slightly. Two districts I can think of that will be more beneficial for him are the Riverside area district that does not go into wealthy areas of OC anymore and the San Joaquin county district that does not pick up wealthy Bay Area suburbs.

Sorry, I had revised it after I realized what I said there. They may give him a slight boost compared to the old maps, but there are also areas in the Central Valley that are more diluted now. There's also only one seat in the far NE corner of the state now as opposed to two.

[Politico]

Folks, Romney won more delegates yesterday than anybody else thanks to big wins in Hawaii and American Samoa. Like Obama (and unlike Hillary) four years ago, Team Romney knows that this is about delegates. And the Romney lead in delegates is insurmountable unless Santorum wins most everywhere from here on out, including New Jersey and Utah. Not just that, Santorum would need to crush, not just beat, Romney in places like Connecticut and Rhode Island (Home of the Winfield).

Folks, this game is over. Santorum is like a team trying to comeback from a 48-24 deficit in the third quarter of a football game. Yeah, you got off to a 3-0 start, but you're down 48-24 now. A comeback is not going to happen...

[Senator Sbane]

That being said Romney does have an advantage. He will likely win every CD in the Bay Area (maybe a surprise in the east bay but likely it will just be closer than the rest) and most in LA county where there aren't many Republicans.

What are the registration requirements for that primary?  If Dems wanted to mess with the GOP primary, could they Operation Hilarity a few delegates towards Santorum?  Presumably it wouldn't take many voters to do so.

Only Republicans get to vote, not even Independents.

But how does party registration work in California?  Can you just show up at the polls and say "I'm a Republican", or do you have to fill out a registration card weeks/months in advance?

It needs to be done in advance. Don't remember if it's 15 or 30 days but it is certainly not very convenient and I doubt the average voter will care enough to change their registration for this. Maybe Paul voters, but that's about it.

[J. J.]

Folks, Romney won more delegates yesterday than anybody else thanks to big wins in Hawaii and American Samoa. Like Obama (and unlike Hillary) four years ago, Team Romney knows that this is about delegates. And the Romney lead in delegates is insurmountable unless Santorum wins most everywhere from here on out, including New Jersey and Utah. Not just that, Santorum would need to crush, not just beat, Romney in places like Connecticut and Rhode Island (Home of the Winfield).

Folks, this game is over. Santorum is like a team trying to comeback from a 48-24 deficit in the third quarter of a football game. Yeah, you got off to a 3-0 start, but you're down 48-24 now. A comeback is not going to happen...

Looking at the D Primary in 2008, I think it is very premature to call it a game.  Romney, like Obama in 2008, ran up some huge delegate scores in the early primaries.  In March 2008, Obama basically broke even, with a net gain of 7 delegates (about 3-4 in proportion of total delegates).  Then in April, Hilary started to close the gap.

Santorum has a good shot at closing the gap in IL and an outside chance in PR.  If something comes out of MO, that could do it. 

[Lief]

Uh... the D primary in 2008 was over by the end of February. Obama had a large enough delegate lead after winning everything by huge margins that month that it was impossible for Clinton to come back. Of course the fact that the D primary was very proportional while Republican primary states are generally either WTA or give a large bonus to the winner makes the comparison pretty useless.

[Is JCL in mushy sappy love]

You forget that Paul would have beat him in Maine if not for those votes in the river.

The same with Iowa as well.

[IDS Speaker Ben Kenobi]

Folks, this game is over. Santorum is like a team trying to comeback from a 48-24 deficit in the third quarter of a football game. Yeah, you got off to a 3-0 start, but you're down 48-24 now. A comeback is not going to happen...

Heh. Romney's fading. Just like last time vs McCain.

[J. J.]

Uh... the D primary in 2008 was over by the end of February. Obama had a large enough delegate lead after winning everything by huge margins that month that it was impossible for Clinton to come back. Of course the fact that the D primary was very proportional while Republican primary states are generally either WTA or give a large bonus to the winner makes the comparison pretty useless.

Yes, and Obama was ultimately the nominee, but there was a sizable Hillary comeback.  I think there could be a Santorum "comeback."

[Likely Voter]

It is possible for Santorum to have a comeback and deny Mitt the 1144 he needs, but Rick has to start winning in unexpected states.

Rick will likely win MO, LA, PA, NC, WV, NE, WI, AR, KY, TX, SD, IN, and MT...but even if he wins all of those Romney will still get his 1144.  Santorum needs to also win in places like IL, PR, NM and DE. He also needs a huge delegate haul out of TX and to hold back Romney's haul in CA.