State Categories

[Tidewater_Wave]

Safe GOP 54       Solid GOP 89        Likely GOP 27         Leans GOP              Barely GOP 22

Utah 6               Louisiana 8           Arizona 11              Missouri 10             Virginia 13
Idhao 4             Mississippi 6          Georgia 16             North Carolina 15    Colorado 9
Wyoming 3        Texas 38                                            Florida 29
Oklahoma 7       Arkansas 6
Alaska 3            South Dakota 3
Alabama 9         Tennessee 11
Nebraska 5        West Virginia 5
Kansas 6           South Carolina 9
Kentucky 8        Montana 3
North Dakota 3

Safe Dem 25           Solid Dem 39          Likely Dem 89        Leans Dem 59        Barely Dem

D.C. 3                    Maryland 10            Illinois 20               Washington 12      Wisconsin 10
Vermont 3              New York 29           Connecticut 7          New Jersey 14       New Mexico 5
Hawaii 4                                              Delaware 3             Oregon 7               Pennsylvania 20
Massachusetts 11                                 California 55           Michigan 16           New Hampshire 4
Rhode Island 4                                     Maine 4                  Minnesota 10         Iowa 6



                                                         Toss Up 24

                                                         Ohio 18
                                                         Nevada 6

[King]

Your EV totals are off, but a decent breakdown of Bush vs. Kerry.

[Tidewater_Wave]

Your EV totals are off, but a decent breakdown of Bush vs. Kerry.

Did I add them up wrong?

[5280]

This is what your map would look like, you forgot Indiana on your list.  I clustered it with Arizona and Georgia.

Safe - 90%
Solid - 70%
Likely - 50%
Lean - 40%
Barely - 30%

[Tidewater_Wave]

This is what your map would look like, you forgot Indiana on your list.  I clustered it with Arizona and Georgia.

That's about where it would be mathematically. After 2008 I'd put it in with MO, NC, and FL though.

[Tidewater_Wave]

[Lief 🗽]

What King said. It's not 2004 anymore brah.

[Tidewater_Wave]

What King said. It's not 2004 anymore brah.

I went by the averages of 2004 and 2008 and broke up categories based on numbers.

[Хahar 🤔]

I'm not sure what universe has Colorado as "barely GOP".

[Tidewater_Wave]

I'm not sure what universe has Colorado as "barely GOP".

Just the recent elections. Nobody has to agree with me.

[HST1948]

Gray- Pure Toss Up
30%- Lean
50%- Likely
90%-Solid

Obama: 266
GOP: 206
Toss Up:66

I don't really like predicting this far out because anything can change this map  drastically, but at the moment, this is my gut feeling.

[Tidewater_Wave]

That's true. I wasn't predicting as much as I was generalizing though. I'll predict later on.

[Adam Griffin]

I've been working on a polls map, taking out an equivalent amount of base EVs from each party; I settled on 286, 143 from each party (blacked-out states). That leaves 252 to fight over. The shades are the averages of the last 3-5 polls in 2012. White states haven't been polled recently.

REVERSED COLORS

[Хahar 🤔]

Fix those colors first.

[Adam Griffin]

Fix those colors first.

Meh.

[Tidewater_Wave]

I wasn't referring simply to 2012, but to a case where all things are equal and a generic GOP runs against a generic Dem.

[pbrower2a]

I wasn't referring simply to 2012, but to a case where all things are equal and a generic GOP runs against a generic Dem.

Politicians are as individual as any people, and they all have their cultures. Culture as well as a perception of competence or its lack. Bill Clinton was a fine match for Arkansas, Tennessee, and Kentucky in the 1990s and Barack Obama was a poor match for those states. Barack Obama may be the best Democratic match in a long time for Indiana. North Carolina, and Virginia om 2008.  Go figure.

For really-good judgments of how some states would go you would need politicians from politically-similar states -- let us say Ohio and Florida.  (Those might not be your first choices but they generally vote alike).

[Tidewater_Wave]

I wasn't referring simply to 2012, but to a case where all things are equal and a generic GOP runs against a generic Dem.

Politicians are as individual as any people, and they all have their cultures. Culture as well as a perception of competence or its lack. Bill Clinton was a fine match for Arkansas, Tennessee, and Kentucky in the 1990s and Barack Obama was a poor match for those states. Barack Obama may be the best Democratic match in a long time for Indiana. North Carolina, and Virginia om 2008.  Go figure.

For really-good judgments of how some states would go you would need politicians from politically-similar states -- let us say Ohio and Florida.  (Those might not be your first choices but they generally vote alike).

This is all very true. In order to find an election with the projected results I set forth, 2000 and 1960 are probably the best examples. The country was evenly split between two moderates in both cases. Those are hard to come by. Also, the map constantly changes every couple elections. I expect that this election will come down to FL, VA, OH, PA, and one other small battleground state meaning if Romney wins 2 out of 3; OH, VA, and PA along with a small battleground state, then he'll win. This is assuming he wins FL.