Mapping the Romney vs. Anybody-But-Romney results
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  Mapping the Romney vs. Anybody-But-Romney results
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Author Topic: Mapping the Romney vs. Anybody-But-Romney results  (Read 3367 times)
Nichlemn
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« Reply #25 on: March 27, 2012, 11:06:40 PM »

Can somebody make a map: Romney+Paul vs Santorum+Gingrich



Kind of an interesting moderate vs socon split, though the Mormons and Virginia are obviously throwing it off a bit.

this is a more informative map. Lumping all candidates vs. Romney is essentially saying "how many states did Romney get a majority". Well winning with pluralities is what happens in a multi-candidate field.

but but if you're the frontrunner you're weak if you can't win more than the field put together!

Kinda like how Clinton's victories showcased how politically weak he was.

Clinton had 10 plurality victories, 3 of which were under 40%. He won a majority in 23 states. He lost 18 states total.

Romney has already had 12 plurality victories, 7 of which were under 40%. He won a majority in 4 states. He has already lost 13 states, and will probably eclipse Clinton's number unless Santorum and Gingrich drop out. Romney is much weaker than Clinton was in 1992.

I'm referring more to his general election victories. Clinton didn't win a majority in 1996, for instance, but no-one would say that meant he was "weak" because he lost to "Anybody but Clinton". Of course, there was no such movement and it's clear he would have comfortably beat Dole in a head-to-head.

Even in head-to-heads, not doing especially well doesn't necessarily indicate weakness. Obama, for instance, beat Clinton by only a very narrow margin, but no-one would say that meant he was "weak" - indeed, beating Clinton by any margin at all was seen as exceptionally impressive. Santorum is no Hillary Clinton, but he is reasonably skilled and appeals to a sizeable set of Republicans whose main concern with Romney is that he is insufficiently conservative. Such "weakness" in the primary can actually represent strength for the general. Consider how Huntsman did poorly in the primaries despite the fact he'd be presumably be a strong general election candidate. 
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #26 on: March 28, 2012, 01:36:44 AM »

Too bad ABR isn't a candidate. Also, too bad that all of Gingrich supporters wouldn't absorb to Santorum if he dropped out.



For comparison, this is McCain vs. ABM (Anybody But McCain). This is up through Super Tuesday. Just about as many states had voted at this time in 2008 as have now, and judging my the map, probably a higher percentage of the electorate had voted in this map that now.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #27 on: March 28, 2012, 02:22:50 AM »

Here's a county map of (Rick + Newt), (Mitt) and (Ron). I thought the sects (Libertarian, Evangelical, Corporatist) would manifest more clearly but I was wrong. I'd love to see the Utah satellite Mormon colonies not going for Romney right now.



Exceptions in this map:

IA is (Rick + Rick + Newt + Michelle), (Mitt + Jon) & (Ron)
NH is (Rick + Rick + Newt), (Mitt + Jon) & (Ron)
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