Will Paul win any districts in NY?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Remember those districts that have like five Republicans in them. The actual Republican voters could easily be overwhelmed by pot smoking hipsters. Paul does best in such districts too, remember that he has won three so far, including my own, another being VA-3.

Isn't Park Slope in an otherwise majority black majority district? That'd be a likely candidate.

[NY Jew]

Remember those districts that have like five Republicans in them. The actual Republican voters could easily be overwhelmed by pot smoking hipsters. Paul does best in such districts too, remember that he has won three so far, including my own, another being VA-3.

Isn't Park Slope in an otherwise majority black majority district? That'd be a likely candidate.

Jewish Flatbush, and Crown Heights is in that district (district 11) so no way.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I think Ron Paul "winning" anything will be limited to his "win" in the Virgin Islands if you can call losing to uncommitted and then getting creamed in the delegate count a win.

[Eraserhead]

I seriously doubt it.

[Meeker]

He barely won VA-03 when all the other not-Romney's weren't on the ballot. Highly doubtful he can one of these with all of them around.

[Alcon]

I could see him winning an Assembly District, but I can't think of a Congressional District he stands a chance in.

[Lief 🗽]

NY-15 or NY-16 is possible because there will be like 12 people voting in each.

[Alcon]

I guess NY-15 is a very reasonable possibility.  Morningside Heights and Harlem seem like they could be decent places for Paul.  For some reason, I thought NY-15 had more of the Upper West Side, which I assumed would be enough to give Romney the win.  But if the district is only 6% Republican, I can't imagine it contains enough affluent UWSers to give Romney a cushion against the sparsely-Republican-populated precincts' Paulites.

I can't even fathom what a white Republican in NY-16 is like.  Puerto Ricans can't be that Democratic.  Surely they're enough of the Republican voting population in NY-16 to make a Paul win tough?  I'm not sure what the whites in the kinda-gentrifying areas (like University Heights) are like.

[NY Jew]

I guess NY-15 is a very reasonable possibility.  Morningside Heights and Harlem seem like they could be decent places for Paul.  For some reason, I thought NY-15 had more of the Upper West Side, which I assumed would be enough to give Romney the win.  But if the district is only 6% Republican, I can't imagine it contains enough affluent UWSers to give Romney a cushion against the sparsely-Republican-populated precincts' Paulites.

I can't even fathom what a white Republican in NY-16 is like.  Puerto Ricans can't be that Democratic.  Surely they're enough of the Republican voting population in NY-16 to make a Paul win tough?  I'm not sure what the whites in the kinda-gentrifying areas (like University Heights) are like.

NY 15 has way to big a Orthodox population (who probably are registered republican more then the avg New Yorker) to see Paul win that district.   Don't know anything about NY-16 other then to guess that any Republican (if the Republicans are minorities) is there purely on social issues.

[Torie]

Remember those districts that have like five Republicans in them. The actual Republican voters could easily be overwhelmed by pot smoking hipsters. Paul does best in such districts too, remember that he has won three so far, including my own, another being VA-3.

Isn't Park Slope in an otherwise majority black majority district? That'd be a likely candidate.

The primary is closed, no?  How many pot smoking hippies/hipsters/emos/anarchists/isolationists/gold bugs/conspiracy theorists/Wall Street park squatters are registered Pubs in the Big Apple?

[NY Jew]

NY predictions (not looking at neighborhood registration in these districts and just making assumptions based on assumed registration levels in different areas)

NY 1 Romney
NY 2 Romney
NY 3 Santorum
NY 4 Santorum
NY 5 Romney
NY 6 Santorum
NY 7 Romney
NY 8 Santorum
NY 9 Santorum
NY 10 Santorum
NY 11 Santorum
NY 12 Romney
NY 13 Santorum
NY 14 Romney
NY 15 Romney
NY 16 Romney
NY 17 Santorum
NY 18 Romney
NY 19 Romney
NY 20 Romney
NY 21 Romney
NY 22 Romney
NY 23 Romney
NY 24 Romney
NY 25 Romney
NY 26 Romney
NY 27 Romney
NY 28 Romney
NY 29 Romney

[Sam Spade]

Remember - NY primary is closed. Sam Spade already switched temporarily.

Under the old boundaries, there are presently 23,623 registered active GOP in NY-6, 32,360 in NY-7, 46,896 in NY-8, 59,353 in NY-9, 18,026 in NY-10, 18,678 in NY-11, 25,507 in NY-12 (SS abode), 55,894 in NY-14 (upper East Side, no doubt), 18,676 in NY-15, 13,152 in NY-16, 49,545 in NY-17. There's also a little over 60k in NY-5 and a little under 100k in NY-13.

In 2008, there was about 25% turnout statewide, but I have to think it was more like 15-20% in the city, and possibly lower.  Nonetheless, have fun watching Mitt win here, though I won't be joining in.

[Torie]

The group Rick carries are Evangelicals and "very conservative" Pubs. How many of those are there in New York? Are you assuming Rick will carry the orthodox Jewish vote?  Anyway, NY is down to 27 CD's now, but using your list (which is understandable because we are not yet quite sure what the new lines will be), let's look at where you think Rick will win, for your further comment perhaps NY Jew.

NY 1 Romney
NY 2 Romney
NY 3 Santorum (Nassau Suffolk - King CD - maybe - but the northern end in Oyster Bay is upscale)
NY 4 Santorum (Nassau - McCarthy CD - doubt it)
NY 5 Romney
NY 6 Santorum (black Jamaica based Meeks CD - orthodox Jewish vote?)
NY 7 Romney
NY 8 Santorum (west side, Borough Park in Brooklyn CD - orthodox Jewish vote again?)
NY 9 Santorum (Turner CD - Brooklyn Queens - orthodox Jewish vote again? - but Pubs are mostly Catholic here, so I doubt it)
NY 10 Santorum (black CD - Brooklyn Queens - orthodox Jewish vote again?)
NY 11 Santorum (black CD - Brooklyn - orthodox Jewish vote again?)
NY 12 Romney
NY 13 Santorum (Staten Island - Bay Ridge, Brooklyn CD - heavily Catholic - Italian - I don't think so)
NY 14 Romney
NY 15 Romney
NY 16 Romney
NY 17 Santorum (Engel CD, with lots of orthodox Jews in Rockland along with a scattering of Catholics in Yonkers, and a handful of upscale neighborhoods)
NY 18 Romney
NY 19 Romney
NY 20 Romney
NY 21 Romney
NY 22 Romney
NY 23 Romney
NY 24 Romney
NY 25 Romney
NY 26 Romney
NY 27 Romney
NY 28 Romney
NY 29 Romney

Hey, outside Nassau and Staten Island/Bay Ridge, I think I found a theme here!

[Erc]

NY-17 should be interesting to watch, as has been said.  Yonkers Republicans are an...interesting lot, and definitely the sort that could break for Santorum.  Don't know enough about Rockland to really make a judgment.  Are all those Orthodox Jews registered Republican?

But I'd imagine there are still enough upscale suburban Republicans in the rest of Rockland / Hudson Line Westchester that Romney would win.

[NY Jew]

NY-17 should be interesting to watch, as has been said.  Yonkers Republicans are an...interesting lot, and definitely the sort that could break for Santorum.  Don't know enough about Rockland to really make a judgment.  Are all those Orthodox Jews registered Republican?

But I'd imagine there are still enough upscale suburban Republicans in the rest of Rockland / Hudson Line Westchester that Romney would win.

many of the Orthodox Jews who are the most strong on social conservatism are registered republican.  In black districts with a strong Orthodox presence that can easily turn it.
for all my critics of my predictions (which I'm not to strong on anyway) make your own predictions. (I'm interested what other people think on this topic)

[Torie]

NY-17 should be interesting to watch, as has been said.  Yonkers Republicans are an...interesting lot, and definitely the sort that could break for Santorum.  Don't know enough about Rockland to really make a judgment.  Are all those Orthodox Jews registered Republican?

But I'd imagine there are still enough upscale suburban Republicans in the rest of Rockland / Hudson Line Westchester that Romney would win.

many of the Orthodox Jews who are the most strong on social conservatism are registered republican.  In black districts with a strong Orthodox presence that can easily turn it.
for all my critics of my predictions (which I'm not to strong on anyway) make your own predictions. (I'm interested what other people think on this topic)

You think registered Pub orthodox Jews will favor Santorum in the NYC area?  I am not disputing you, I am just asking. You presumably have more of a sense about this than certainly this particular secular WASP from CA.

[NY Jew]

NY-17 should be interesting to watch, as has been said.  Yonkers Republicans are an...interesting lot, and definitely the sort that could break for Santorum.  Don't know enough about Rockland to really make a judgment.  Are all those Orthodox Jews registered Republican?

But I'd imagine there are still enough upscale suburban Republicans in the rest of Rockland / Hudson Line Westchester that Romney would win.

many of the Orthodox Jews who are the most strong on social conservatism are registered republican.  In black districts with a strong Orthodox presence that can easily turn it.
for all my critics of my predictions (which I'm not to strong on anyway) make your own predictions. (I'm interested what other people think on this topic)

You think registered Pub orthodox Jews will favor Santorum in the NYC area?  I am not disputing you, I am just asking. You presumably have more of a sense about this than certainly this particular secular WASP from CA.

depends on what type of Orthodox and based on location  Southern Brooklyn yes, Rockland  county most likley, Five Towns

[rbt48]

I predict that Romney will carry all 29 CDs in New York.