March 13 Results

[Lief]

So the polls were a massive failure and Mitt's southern ceiling is still 28% basically. Good to know!

[You kip if you want to...]

What is with CNN's primary night intros, SERIOUSLY!?

[M]

Mobile early votes are in, Romney 39, Santorum 32, Gingrich 22.  Romney has pretty much ran out of potential strongholds unless poll voters there are fantastic for him.

1% of precincts in an urban county could mean anything or nothing.

[You kip if you want to...]

Santorum takes the RCP lead by Friday.

[TJ in Wisco]

Santorum doing well in the Gulf Coast is interesting. Maybe for once he's actually doing well among Catholics? That would make a sort of sense, since in the South Catholics are much more "the other" than in the Rust Belt. That would be a very good sign for him in Louisiana.

Yes, and some of those Catholics are well, yes, you guessed it - Coonass Cajuns. Cajuns loved being called coonasses by the way. It is a term of endearment.

There's a huge difference between rural Catholics and urban Catholics in GOP primary voting. I would suspect the main reason why Romney has done well with rust belt Catholics overall is that Catholics are more likely to live in urban areas. If you look at the Catholic counties in the rural parts (of Ohio at least and Michigan shows this somewhat too) Romney lose to Santorum pretty badly.

That's my guess anyway.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Mobile early votes are in, Romney 39, Santorum 32, Gingrich 22.  Romney has pretty much ran out of potential strongholds unless poll voters there are fantastic for him.

1% of precincts in an urban county could mean anything or nothing.

If it has a lot of early votes in there (and 1% in would suggest it does), that's really not especially good news for Romney -- although, you're right, we shouldn't be too literal about the Mobile results yet.

[Colbert]

pingrich is very close to santorum in MS. Could he win at the end?

[Grad Students are the Worst]

pingrich is very close to santorum in MS. Could he win at the end?

It's a distinct possibility; I'd give it like 35-40% odds at this point.

[Volrath50]

Santorum takes the RCP lead by Friday.

He was already surging, for whatever reason (Kansas maybe?), this should put him over the top.

And the rollercoaster continues.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

A lot of what's left in Mississippi is the Black Belt (hat tip to Bacon King), and it probably makes Gingrich look more underreported than he is.  But with such a tight margin (we've been trading between +2,000 and +1,500 Santorum several times without ticking up 1%) this is purely reading tea leaves.

[yourelection]

After Super Tuesday no one was expecting Romney to win MS and AL. A loss here for Romney is nothing serious. A loss for Gingrich on the other hand is fatal. Santorum really needs to win big here for him to get much momentum out of it. If its close it is actually better for Romney.

Well It won't be close for Romney when you consider that almost two-thirds voted against him, but the damage will be bearable and he can come back in states where he is stronger

[Sam Spade]

So the polls were a massive failure and Mitt's southern ceiling is still 28% basically. Good to know!

More like 30%, but yeah.  I suspected the polls would be wrong in Alabama, but didn't bet on it in Mississippi.

[You kip if you want to...]

Atleast Mitt still has Hawaii and Samoa!

Oh... ah.

[marvelrobbins]

I think It Is safe to say eather Santorum or Gingrich wins In Miss,With 79 percent of vote
Santorum has a 1 percent lead.The south tonight again was bad for Romney.

[J. J.]

pingrich is very close to santorum in MS. Could he win at the end?

Yes, so could Mittens at this point, barely.

[Wiz from Wis in Mass]

"Nighttime is the right time for Santorum" Rachel Maddow. Best line of the primary so far

[Grad Students are the Worst]

pingrich is very close to santorum in MS. Could he win at the end?

Yes, so could Mittens at this point, barely.

It would be helpful to Romney if he had a meaningful lead in any place that wasn't overreported.

[Keystone Phil]

After Super Tuesday no one was expecting Romney to win MS and AL.

LOL

[You kip if you want to...]

"Nighttime is the right time for Santorum" Rachel Maddow. Best line of the primary so far

Does she mean how I think (hope ) she means it though?

[Colbert]

Atleast Mitt still has Hawaii and Samoa!

Oh... ah.

unfortunately for him, Micronesia and philippines had left US ruling

[Wiz from Wis in Mass]

"Nighttime is the right time for Santorum" Rachel Maddow. Best line of the primary so far

Does she mean how I think (hope ) she means it though?

She clearly did... MSNBC has been effing hysterical in the past 15 minutes.

[J. J.]

pingrich is very close to santorum in MS. Could he win at the end?

Yes, so could Mittens at this point, barely.

It would be helpful to Romney if he had a meaningful lead in any place that wasn't overreported.

Barely, some of the urban areas are still out.

AL, is at 44 reporting, and Santorum is still holding.

[Torie]

Well per CNN, Mittens margin is Jackson has been almost totally erased. I suspect he will come in third in both states (maybe second in MS). He clearly will not come in first in either. God bless the two states delegate allocation system, but I suspect Mittens will fall about 10-15 delegates or so short of my spreadsheet.

[Senator Clarence]

Well... it is time for Newt to step aside

[patrick1]

pingrich is very close to santorum in MS. Could he win at the end?

Yes, so could Mittens at this point, barely.

It would be helpful to Romney if he had a meaningful lead in any place that wasn't overreported.

Barely, some of the urban areas are still out.

AL, is at 44 reporting, and Santorum is still holding.

J.J. take a lap, hit the showers and proceed straight to bed.