March 13 Results

[IDS Speaker Ben Kenobi]

Wow, why is Santorum so strong here?

[Meeker]

I'm pretty sure they could've exit polled every voter in this caucus and we'd already have our results.

[ottermax]

Paul pulled a strong showing in Kamuela... but that's a weird place, Hawaiian "cowboy country," so who know if that result means anything:

Paul - 59
Romney - 42
Gingrich - 20
Santorum - 16

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Wow, why is Santorum so strong here?

My guess: Mormonia hasn't reported yet, so instead we're getting Random Weird Hawaii Republicans right now.

[Bacon King]

HAWAIIAN GODS BLESS YOU, DANNY DE GRACIA

[Lief]

So because the Republican delegate process is nonsensical and designed by idiots, the magic number for Romney is 33.3333(etc)% in the congressional districts. If he gets more than a third of the vote, he gets 2 out of 3 delegates in the CD, otherwise only 1 out of 3. So HI-01 is probably Romney 2, Santorum 1 at the moment and HI-02 is R 1, S 1, P 1.

[realisticidealist]

If anyone doesn't know, results by CD are here: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_cd/HI_Page_0313_VD.html?SITE=CSPANELN&SECTION=POLITICS

[redcommander]

Why is this taking so long? Alaska was even faster to report than this.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

13% reporting

Romney 33% (+1)
Santorum 28% (+2)
Paul 23% (-2)
Gingrich 16% (nc)

Santorum now again leads Oahu (17% reporting, probably none of Mormonia)

[Lief]

As beloved Hawaiian political scientist Danny de Gracia explains in this fascinating Washington Times editorial, Hawaiians revere elders (or kupuna), so if Ron Paul does poorly here it will be a profound disappointment.

[IDS Speaker Ben Kenobi]

Romney isn't going to top 40 percent here.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Romney isn't going to top 40 percent here.

Again, no hints of Mormonia yet.

[Bacon King]

As beloved Hawaiian political scientist Danny de Gracia explains in this fascinating Washington Times editorial, Hawaiians revere elders (or kupuna), so if Ron Paul does poorly here it will be a profound disappointment.

Oh wow, he's also an ordained minister!

[Lief]

Current delegate estimate is:

Romney: 7
Santorum: 6
Paul: 4
Gingrich: 0

[ottermax]

Romney isn't going to top 40 percent here.

Again, no hints of Mormonia yet.

The main location of Mormons in Hawaii is Laie in NE Oahu, in CD 2.

Therefore I expect Romney to pass the 33% mark in CD 2, and he already has in CD 1.

[IDS Speaker Ben Kenobi]

Santorum up in Oahu.

[Lief]

So Paul will probably only get 3 delegates. If only he had spent 48 hours in the islands meeting with and gaining the favor of local tribal chieftains, as Danny de Gracia suggested.

[realisticidealist]

Romney isn't going to top 40 percent here.

Again, no hints of Mormonia yet.

The main location of Mormons in Hawaii is Laie in NE Oahu, in CD 2.

Therefore I expect Romney to pass the 33% mark in CD 2, and he already has in CD 1.

Santorum's leading in CD 1

[Meeker]

I think it would've been good for Paul to go to Hawaii. He probably could've meet about half of the voters in a morning and then spent the afternoon lying on the beach. The fresh air would've been good for his lungs, ya know?

[IDS Speaker Ben Kenobi]

If Santorum splits Hawaii, that would be a nice cap to a great day for him.

[Bacon King]

So Paul will probably only get 3 delegates. If only he had spent 48 hours in the islands meeting with and gaining the favor of local tribal chieftains, as Danny de Gracia suggested.

Don't forget personally signwaving on the streets.

edit: and it's THE REVEREND Danny de Gracia

[Grad Students are the Worst]

17% reporting

Romney 31% (-2)
Santorum 28% (nc)
Paul 26% (+3)
Gingrich 15% (-1)

Still waiting on Mormonia.  (Man, I'm going to look like an ass in the unlikely event that doesn't happen.)

[Lief]

If these results hold

Santorum: 3 + 4 = 7
Romney: 2 + 4 = 6
Paul: 1 + 3 = 4
Gingrich: 0

I hope these results hold if only so that I can laugh at Torie/JJ.

[IDS Speaker Ben Kenobi]

17 in, 31 Romney 28 Santorum 26 Paul 15 Grinch.

Romney's capped at 38 now, Grich voters are going to be relevant in Hawaii.

[realisticidealist]

Paul only 8 votes back in CD-2