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Author Topic: March 13 Results  (Read 12789 times)
Meeker
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« Reply #525 on: March 14, 2012, 02:09:01 am »
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I'm pretty sure they could've exit polled every voter in this caucus and we'd already have our results.
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ottermax
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« Reply #526 on: March 14, 2012, 02:09:58 am »
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Paul pulled a strong showing in Kamuela... but that's a weird place, Hawaiian "cowboy country," so who know if that result means anything:

Paul - 59
Romney - 42
Gingrich - 20
Santorum - 16
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« Reply #527 on: March 14, 2012, 02:11:03 am »
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Wow, why is Santorum so strong here?

My guess: Mormonia hasn't reported yet, so instead we're getting Random Weird Hawaii Republicans right now.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #528 on: March 14, 2012, 02:11:39 am »

HAWAIIAN GODS BLESS YOU, DANNY DE GRACIA
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Lief
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« Reply #529 on: March 14, 2012, 02:12:18 am »
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So because the Republican delegate process is nonsensical and designed by idiots, the magic number for Romney is 33.3333(etc)% in the congressional districts. If he gets more than a third of the vote, he gets 2 out of 3 delegates in the CD, otherwise only 1 out of 3. So HI-01 is probably Romney 2, Santorum 1 at the moment and HI-02 is R 1, S 1, P 1.
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #530 on: March 14, 2012, 02:15:00 am »
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If anyone doesn't know, results by CD are here: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_cd/HI_Page_0313_VD.html?SITE=CSPANELN&SECTION=POLITICS
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« Reply #531 on: March 14, 2012, 02:15:34 am »
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Why is this taking so long? Alaska was even faster to report than this.
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« Reply #532 on: March 14, 2012, 02:15:49 am »
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13% reporting

Romney 33% (+1)
Santorum 28% (+2)
Paul 23% (-2)
Gingrich 16% (nc)

Santorum now again leads Oahu (17% reporting, probably none of Mormonia)
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Lief
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« Reply #533 on: March 14, 2012, 02:17:03 am »
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As beloved Hawaiian political scientist Danny de Gracia explains in this fascinating Washington Times editorial, Hawaiians revere elders (or kupuna), so if Ron Paul does poorly here it will be a profound disappointment.
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IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #534 on: March 14, 2012, 02:18:44 am »
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Romney isn't going to top 40 percent here.
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« Reply #535 on: March 14, 2012, 02:19:12 am »
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Romney isn't going to top 40 percent here.

Again, no hints of Mormonia yet.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #536 on: March 14, 2012, 02:20:03 am »

As beloved Hawaiian political scientist Danny de Gracia explains in this fascinating Washington Times editorial, Hawaiians revere elders (or kupuna), so if Ron Paul does poorly here it will be a profound disappointment.

Oh wow, he's also an ordained minister!
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Lief
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« Reply #537 on: March 14, 2012, 02:20:17 am »
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Current delegate estimate is:

Romney: 7
Santorum: 6
Paul: 4
Gingrich: 0
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ottermax
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« Reply #538 on: March 14, 2012, 02:20:42 am »
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Romney isn't going to top 40 percent here.

Again, no hints of Mormonia yet.

The main location of Mormons in Hawaii is Laie in NE Oahu, in CD 2.

Therefore I expect Romney to pass the 33% mark in CD 2, and he already has in CD 1.
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« Reply #539 on: March 14, 2012, 02:22:18 am »
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Santorum up in Oahu.
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Lief
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« Reply #540 on: March 14, 2012, 02:22:30 am »
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So Paul will probably only get 3 delegates. If only he had spent 48 hours in the islands meeting with and gaining the favor of local tribal chieftains, as Danny de Gracia suggested.
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #541 on: March 14, 2012, 02:23:06 am »
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Romney isn't going to top 40 percent here.

Again, no hints of Mormonia yet.

The main location of Mormons in Hawaii is Laie in NE Oahu, in CD 2.

Therefore I expect Romney to pass the 33% mark in CD 2, and he already has in CD 1.

Santorum's leading in CD 1
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Meeker
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« Reply #542 on: March 14, 2012, 02:23:26 am »
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I think it would've been good for Paul to go to Hawaii. He probably could've meet about half of the voters in a morning and then spent the afternoon lying on the beach. The fresh air would've been good for his lungs, ya know?
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IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #543 on: March 14, 2012, 02:23:41 am »
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If Santorum splits Hawaii, that would be a nice cap to a great day for him.
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« Reply #544 on: March 14, 2012, 02:24:44 am »

So Paul will probably only get 3 delegates. If only he had spent 48 hours in the islands meeting with and gaining the favor of local tribal chieftains, as Danny de Gracia suggested.

Don't forget personally signwaving on the streets.

edit: and it's THE REVEREND Danny de Gracia Sad
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« Reply #545 on: March 14, 2012, 02:26:06 am »
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17% reporting

Romney 31% (-2)
Santorum 28% (nc)
Paul 26% (+3)
Gingrich 15% (-1)

Still waiting on Mormonia.  (Man, I'm going to look like an ass in the unlikely event that doesn't happen.)
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Lief
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« Reply #546 on: March 14, 2012, 02:26:31 am »
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If these results hold

Santorum: 3 + 4 = 7
Romney: 2 + 4 = 6
Paul: 1 + 3 = 4
Gingrich: 0

I hope these results hold if only so that I can laugh at Torie/JJ.
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IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #547 on: March 14, 2012, 02:27:17 am »
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17 in, 31 Romney 28 Santorum 26 Paul 15 Grinch.

Romney's capped at 38 now, Grich voters are going to be relevant in Hawaii.
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #548 on: March 14, 2012, 02:27:26 am »
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Paul only 8 votes back in CD-2
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Bacon King
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« Reply #549 on: March 14, 2012, 02:27:48 am »

17% reporting

Romney 31% (-2)
Santorum 28% (nc)
Paul 26% (+3)
Gingrich 15% (-1)

Still waiting on Mormonia.  (Man, I'm going to look like an ass in the unlikely event that doesn't happen.)

Rev. Danny de Gracia promised us that the Mormons were lined up for miles to caucus, Alcon. Why would you doubt him!?
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BK without all the crazy drugs just wouldn't be BK.
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