March 13 Results

[Sam Spade]

Look at Drudge, geniuses..

[Sam Spade]

So the polls were a massive failure and Mitt's southern ceiling is still 28% basically. Good to know!

More like 30%, but yeah.  I suspected the polls would be wrong in Alabama, but didn't bet on it in Mississippi.

[Sam Spade]

Both of these contests are over folks.

[Sam Spade]

I wonder how much of an anti LDS issue there was, unspoken, among all those more upscale, but God fearing folks, down there?  The demographic collapse among upscale votes for Mittens is pretty surprising.

Told you that Romney has ceilings in these states.  Until it gets to one-on-one, the numbers work a bit different there.

[Sam Spade]

Santorum did what Huckabee couldn't, win Mississippi.

Huckabee had dropped out by that point.

[Sam Spade]

Does someone who knows MS/AL demographics want to explain these county maps?

To simplify...

With AL - Gingrich won in the black belt, Santorum won in northern Alabama (which is full of all of those used-to-be Democrats who switched based on social issues) and Romney probably won in the suburbs and urban areas, though I'd have to look precinct by precinct there.  I said the polls were most likely to be way off in Alabama b/c most of the Santorum north Alabama folks still identify as Democrats and might get knocked out of the likely voter screen (same thing happened in 2008, btw)

With MS - Somewhat the same, though Mitt Romney had a better showing in the black belt here, which may well be due to Barbour's machine.