March 13 Results

[Torie]

No doubt everyone here already knows this, but below is a copy and past from Politico as to where team Mittens plans to rack up the margins in its attempt to carry both states:

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[Torie]

The demographic divide per the exit polls doesn't seem to mean much in Miss and Ala. Odd. But Mittens is carrying the post graduate degreed vote in Alabama.

[Torie]

The demographic divide per the exit polls doesn't seem to mean much in Miss and Ala. Odd. But Mittens is carrying the post graduate degreed vote in Alabama.

Don't people tend to lie like crazy about their education level in polls?  45% of the voters in the Alabama primary claim to have college degrees, according to the exit poll.  How realistic is that?

It's ludicrous of course. Now if 40% claim they have post graduate degrees, maybe Mittens will be in business. 

[Torie]

Santorum leads in Birmingham in a close three-way race.

Second wave of Jackson County, Mississippi, ballots remarkably like the first, maybe slight Gingrich gain.

If there were a significant demographic divide, which there may not be down here contrary to almost everywhere else so far, Shelby is where the Mittens vote is, more than Jefferson. And nothing from Huntsville and the Gulf Coast in Alabama. Mittens is also leading in Montgomery.

It is all way too early to base much on the raw votes, rather than the exit polls, of course.

[Torie]

Early vote-to-Election Day change has been especially nasty for Romney in the counties around Huntsville.

There are definitely key areas out that could be Romneyslides that it's unreasonable to discount any of the three candidates in either state at this point.

Biloxi-Gulfport flips based on one or two good-Romney precincts.  Not a meaningful dump there

The areas around Huntsville, but outside Madison County, are demographic hell for Mittens. But again, how much will demographics matter this time?

[Torie]

Huntsville starting to come in.  Virtual Romney-Santorum tie so far.  Disappointing result, I think.

Clearly, but if just a couple of precincts, one needs to know where.

[Torie]

Santorum solidly leads DeSoto County, MS.  Ouch for Romney.

It looks like the income effect may be muted in the South some.  Maybe it's because the rich folk in the Deep South are more religious than the poor folk?

Yes, they probably are. I negotiated a complex sale of a business located outside Mobile, with an upscale female lawyer from Birmingham. She was well, very religious, and culturally just not any other lawyer I have dealt with before or since. Christ was never far from her mind. She said grace before we wolfed down the sandwiches that were brought in, and I bowed down my head and prayed with her. She was difficult however to deal with nevertheless. We just had trouble communicating. Of course a sample of one is meaningless. Still ...

[Torie]

Mississippi, more than Alabama so far, really blows for Mittens. I suspect Rick will win it, unless the precincts are unrepresentative. Granted delegate wise, in MS, about two delegates are at stake in all this action. Maybe as much as 15-20 are in play in Alabama.

[Torie]

Well a couple of precincts are in, in quite upscale Baldwin County in Alabama (a lot of high SES people live there just across the bay from Mobile), and Rick leads by 8%. Unless in the hinterlands, that is a horrible number for Mittens - just horrible.

[Torie]

Santorum doing well in the Gulf Coast is interesting. Maybe for once he's actually doing well among Catholics? That would make a sort of sense, since in the South Catholics are much more "the other" than in the Rust Belt. That would be a very good sign for him in Louisiana.

Yes, and some of those Catholics are well, yes, you guessed it - Coonass Cajuns. Cajuns loved being called coonasses by the way. It is a term of endearment.

[Torie]

Well per CNN, Mittens margin is Jackson has been almost totally erased. I suspect he will come in third in both states (maybe second in MS). He clearly will not come in first in either. God bless the two states delegate allocation system, but I suspect Mittens will fall about 10-15 delegates or so short of my spreadsheet.

[Torie]

I wonder how much of an anti LDS issue there was, unspoken, among all those more upscale, but God fearing folks, down there?  The demographic collapse among upscale votes for Mittens is pretty surprising.

[Torie]

Whoop, with 90% reporting Romney is now down only 200 votes in Alabama, versus Gingrich.

Honestly, I think a third-place result for Gingrich in Alabama might be even better for Santorum than Romney in 3rd.  Santorum has already embarrassed Romney in both states.  It would help to embarrass Gingrich in one of his "must-wins" too.

Where is Mittens pulling a rabbit out of the hat?  And yes, I agree with you.  Newt being around is probably worth about 75 delegates for Mittens in the end, as a wild guess. That man whom I loathe viscerally (Rick I disdain but certainly do not loathe), needs to be kept somewhat viable for awhile longer. Maybe however he can ride his $2.50 gas price BS to staying viable irrespective. He's gone totally nutter on that one, but maybe that just makes him more appealing!  

[Torie]

Those were big dumps from Mobile and Baldwin, which have now caught up with the rest of the state.  Gingrich should pull it out.

OK, then the earlier vote in Baldwin was from the hinterlands. That early number really freaked me out. It would be like my home town going for Rick - well not really, but you get the drift.

[Torie]

Anything on the delegates:

AP has:

MI:  S 12, R 11, G 11

AL:  S 15, G 9, R 7

Anybody with a better estimate?

As I said, the vote in MS didn't matter much. I think Mittens is one short of my spreadsheet (well there are three delegates still out for some reason, maybe depending on the final percentage, but maybe give 1 more to each candidate). In AL, they didn't allocate the CD delegates (where it is a 2-1-0 deal, rather than a 1-1-1 deal). It looks like Mittens might win 2 of the 7 CD's, worth four more delegates. He might pick up another couple coming in second in two CD's elsewhere. So allocate another 6 delegates to Mittens total. The rest go to the Newt/Rick candidate.

[Torie]

The interesting thing about MS and Alabama, is that Mittens did quite well, where he usually blows (maybe ironically "the folks" respect more what "their leaders" are saying, mostly for Romney, because that is the culture, rather than the more sharp elbowed culture that most of us enjoy, where we tend to enjoy telling "the establishment" of our individual cohorts to just take a hike - just who the F do they think they are?), and blew where he usually rules. Demographics didn't matter much, where they have been key everywhere else. If Nate did not pick that up, he's missing something. The issue is why Mittens blew among the upper middle class, and whether that portends anything. Probably not, and the LDS thing needs to be touched upon, but it deserves more discussion than it is getting.

[Torie]

The interesting thing about MS and Alabama, is that Mittens did quite well, where he usually blows (maybe ironically "the folks" respect more what "their leaders" are saying, mostly for Romney, because that is the culture, rather than the more sharp elbowed culture that most of us enjoy, where we tend to enjoy telling "the establishment" of our individual cohorts to just take a hike - just who the F do they think they are?), and blew where he usually rules. Demographics didn't matter much, where they have been key everywhere else. If Nate did not pick that up, he's missing something. The issue is why Mittens blew among the upper middle class, and whether that portends anything. Probably not, and the LDS thing needs to be touched upon, but it deserves more discussion than it is getting.

Nate, to is credit, actually pointed out that Romney does much more poorly in affluent suburban areas in the South and Midwest than the rest of the country.  Sean Trende really nailed this with his demographic analysis, though.

OK, but why did Mittens do much better with the upper middle class in Georgia and SC?  I don't think the 3 cornered (for some reason Nate didn't get out west with this) regionalism factor in Nate's model explains it all. Unless the upper middle class is unusually Evangelical in AL and MS. Did Nate touch on that?

[Torie]

When is Hawaii coming up? I am really burned out on the South at the moment.

[Torie]

Does someone who knows MS/AL demographics want to explain these county maps?

In Mississippi, it appears that the voting results can be best described in terms of race.

In the areas of the state with the highest % of AA's, Romney won.
In the areas of the state with the lowest % of AA's, Santorum won.
In the areas of the state with medium % of AA's, Gingrich won.

Compare these maps:


https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html

They match up pretty well.  

Interesting map. Very interesting. That Delta blue on the Mississippi plain, where cotton is king, still, even though it is gone most places now, may have more to do with the respect for authority thing perhaps. It's still kind of feudal down there. Folks depend economically on a few key players. Just a wild thought.

[Torie]

Well, I'm back after a while away from the computer.

1. Romney has some egg on his face tonight; outspending his opponents by a wide margin, leading in the polls, but still coming in third in both states.
2. Santorum Surge Mark III, commence!

Gingrich has more egg than Romney.  Santorum had the best night by far... not many people saw him winning both of these.

A lot more.  A very bad night for Gingrich, a not unexpectedly bad night for Romney (so far), and a very good night for Santorum.

Well, we all know that Romney will do well in Hawaii and American Samoa. I wonder he'll get all of the votes of the 50 people who bother to show up in Samoa? Of course he'll get all of the delegates there.

AS probably, but HI is proportional, which could cut into his totals.  That will shape the story.

The press could end up focusing on the delegates.  A Romney plurality changes the story.

\

No the story is about Newt getting out. But I have faith in Newt. I have faith in the narcissist. He thinks he will ride gas prices to being a big player at the convention. I doubt that he is psychotic enough to really believe he will win the nomination. The establishment know what a disaster it would be to nominate Newt. That is their absolute worst nightmare, worse than all the other ones.

In a word 75-100 delegates may be the difference between something rather clean, versus something that will be more of a mess, and possibly a bit more than that, if Romney erodes a bit more.

I assume nobody here thinks anyone but Romney can get a majority of the delegates on their own (including a Newt/Rick). If they do, I guess that is just something to endue.