CA-Rasmussen: Romney wins comfortably

[Tender Branson]

California GOP Primary: Romney 43%, Santorum 23%, Gingrich 15%, Paul 8%

Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and eight percent (8%) are undecided.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/california2/2012_california_republican_primary

[Torie]

Yes, the demographics among registered Pub voters in CA are worlds' away from Kansas.  It's another planet.

[redcommander]

Hopefully the race won't last until California, but Santorum and Gingrich are stubborn as$es so it probably will.

[Jayhawker]

I'll have to look at the delegate tracker - California could be the state that pushes Romney over the top, but I'm not sure.

[Nagas]

Yes, the demographics among registered Pub voters in CA are worlds' away from Kansas.  It's another planet.

Santorum can prevail in the Sierra Mountains and Central Valley CDs.

[redcommander]

Yes, the demographics among registered Pub voters in CA are worlds' away from Kansas.  It's another planet.

Santorum can prevail in the Sierra Mountains and Central Valley CDs.

Aren't those only about 10 out of the 53 congressional districts?

[Senator Sbane]

Yes, the demographics among registered Pub voters in CA are worlds' away from Kansas.  It's another planet.

Santorum can prevail in the Sierra Mountains and Central Valley CDs.

Don't forget the Inland Empire. But Romney might win if the ABR vote is still split. Otherwise this 20 point lead will evaporate into a 10-15 point win at best for Romney. California Republicans may be different from ones in Kansas, but not by much. They are pretty damn reactionary.

[Torie]

The Sierras have a lot of Mormons. Mittens should win there.  Rick should take the Central Valley, but I question whether he will win anything in the inland empire. California is kind of light on down scale whites these days. Most have left the state.

[Likely Voter]

I'll have to look at the delegate tracker - California could be the state that pushes Romney over the top, but I'm not sure.

CA is also on the same day as NJ (WTA), SD, NM and MT and a week before UT (WTA). So yes it is unlikely Romney can wrap things up before CA. I have said before that Romney will probably wrap this thing up in CA, but he might still need those 40 in UT (which are a given).

[Senator Sbane]

The Sierras have a lot of Mormons. Mittens should win there.  Rick should take the Central Valley, but I question whether he will win anything in the inland empire. California is kind of light on down scale whites these days. Most have left the state.

Rick wins SBD county if he can hold Romney to below a 10 point margin I think. Yes, he will lose Rancho and Chino Hills, perhaps Redlands as well, but I don't see him doing well almost anywhere else. How do you think Yucaipa will vote? Not for Romney. Also, in that Pomona to SBD corridor there might not be a lot of whites, but the ones who live there tend to vote Republican and not the type who will be fond of Romney. In Riverside, CA-41 and 42 will be two districts that might vote for Rick. Another question might be how the few Hispanics who vote will swing. They could affect a CD or two. The new 46th in OC could be one such district.

[Inks.LWC Supports Chuck Hagel]

Database entry: http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012R/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=620120312016

[Torie]

The Sierras have a lot of Mormons. Mittens should win there.  Rick should take the Central Valley, but I question whether he will win anything in the inland empire. California is kind of light on down scale whites these days. Most have left the state.

Rick wins SBD county if he can hold Romney to below a 10 point margin I think. Yes, he will lose Rancho and Chino Hills, perhaps Redlands as well, but I don't see him doing well almost anywhere else. How do you think Yucaipa will vote? Not for Romney. Also, in that Pomona to SBD corridor there might not be a lot of whites, but the ones who live there tend to vote Republican and not the type who will be fond of Romney. In Riverside, CA-41 and 42 will be two districts that might vote for Rick. Another question might be how the few Hispanics who vote will swing. They could affect a CD or two. The new 46th in OC could be one such district.

Yes, I understand about the class thing in CA-41, and CA-35 (antelope valley and clarita hills and simi valley), and the Riverside CD, but how Evangelical are those folks, which has been a key variable?  Mittens does OK with downmarket whites if not Evangelical. And these folks are not that down market, just lower middle class. I don't think many Hispanics will be voting. How many are even registered Republicans? Also bear in mind that a lot of old whites are in those CD's, as a cheap retirement, or because they are too poor to retire elsewhere, or whatever. Mittens does well with olds - even poorer ones.

One thing I do know. Rick won't be carrying my CD.

That was my thinking anyway, when I considered the issue of who had the edge in the CD's that you mention.

[Senator Sbane]

The Sierras have a lot of Mormons. Mittens should win there.  Rick should take the Central Valley, but I question whether he will win anything in the inland empire. California is kind of light on down scale whites these days. Most have left the state.

Rick wins SBD county if he can hold Romney to below a 10 point margin I think. Yes, he will lose Rancho and Chino Hills, perhaps Redlands as well, but I don't see him doing well almost anywhere else. How do you think Yucaipa will vote? Not for Romney. Also, in that Pomona to SBD corridor there might not be a lot of whites, but the ones who live there tend to vote Republican and not the type who will be fond of Romney. In Riverside, CA-41 and 42 will be two districts that might vote for Rick. Another question might be how the few Hispanics who vote will swing. They could affect a CD or two. The new 46th in OC could be one such district.

Yes, I understand about the class thing in CA-41, and CA-35 (antelope valley and clarita hills and simi valley), and the Riverside CD, but how Evangelical are those folks, which has been a key variable?  Mittens does OK with downmarket whites if not Evangelical. And these folks are not that down market, just lower middle class. I don't think many Hispanics will be voting. How many are even registered Republicans? Also bear in mind that a lot of old whites are in those CD's, as a cheap retirement, or because they are too poor to retire elsewhere, or whatever. Mittens does well with olds - even poorer ones.

One thing I do know. Rick won't be carrying my CD.

That was my thinking anyway, when I considered the issue of who had the edge in the CD's that you mention.

The Simi Valley to Antelope Valley CD may just vote for Romney actually. Looking at the CD's, I don't see many more than say 8-10 that are locks for Santorum. Of course it's unlikely he gets within 10 points even if he is running alone against Romney. Even worse if Gingrich is still in there splitting things up.

Here are the CD's I think Rick can win or get close in if he is the only ABR left (ignoring Paul of course).

CA-2 might vote for Rick. It's a little more Mormon than the state (but the main population centers aren't really more than about 2-3% Mormon, the main Mormon concentration in a big county is Placer) but it is also fairly socially conservative and not that wealthy. Should be a close one.

CA-3 will probably vote for Rick. Many of it's Republicans will be located in rural areas and around Yuba City/Marysville. Doesn't strike me as Romney country. Also the whites in Vacaville and Fairfield tend to be pretty downscale.

In the central valley, CA-9,10,16,21,22 and 23 should vote for Rick. The 9th could vote for Romney though and the 10th and the 22nd should be close.

Moving to Socal, the 8th is likely Santorum country. The 35th and the 41st as well as I have mentioned. The 42nd (Corona to Murrieta) should be very close. Also CA-50 in SD will be another one to look out for. So basically about 12 districts Rick is favored in or about even while losing by 10. Some of those Latino districts could be tricky too. In addition to the 46th in OC, the 40th, 38th and 32nd in LA county might be ones to watch as well. It's not so much the Hispanics, but what sort of whites live there now.

Of course this is based on how things look now. There is a lot of time left and many things could change.

[Likely Voter]

If Santorum's people were smart (which I doubt) they would already be plotting their CA strategy. Romney's long slog strategy is relying on a big haul of delegates out of CA to get to 1144. But Rick can do well in a number of CDs if he campaigns smartly. If Rick can keep Mitt from getting more than 100 delegates out of CA it could make a difference.

[patrick1]

The Sierras have a lot of Mormons. Mittens should win there.  Rick should take the Central Valley, but I question whether he will win anything in the inland empire. California is kind of light on down scale whites these days. Most have left the state.

Torie, jeez man,  I wouldn't have Mittens make you a member of his outreach program. Imo, terms like down scale or down market, while can be descriptive from an economic pov, tend to have some negative and insulting connotations.

I really hope this race is still competitive when the vote is held.  It will be great to see how all the various stereotypes that there are about different California regions play out.  I can't wait to watch the precinct reports from places like OC roll in.

[Torie]

The Sierras have a lot of Mormons. Mittens should win there.  Rick should take the Central Valley, but I question whether he will win anything in the inland empire. California is kind of light on down scale whites these days. Most have left the state.

Torie, jeez man,  I wouldn't have Mittens make you a member of his outreach program. Imo, terms like down scale or down market, while can be descriptive from an economic pov, tend to have some negative and insulting connotations.

I really hope this race is still competitive when the vote is held.  It will be great to see how all the various stereotypes that there are about different California regions play out.  I can't wait to watch the precinct reports from places like OC roll in.

Since I am not a member of the outreach program, and feel free to dump on Mittens when he deserves it, I feel no need to use euphemisms, rather than just be blunt. I have this feeling that most folks tend to take what I post here somewhat more seriously, precisely because I do that. I try to call them as I see them. I am not here to sell Mittens. He's not salable here anyway. Most posters here (not including moi)  loathe the man, and it is up front and personal. Thanks.

[patrick1]

The Sierras have a lot of Mormons. Mittens should win there.  Rick should take the Central Valley, but I question whether he will win anything in the inland empire. California is kind of light on down scale whites these days. Most have left the state.

Torie, jeez man,  I wouldn't have Mittens make you a member of his outreach program. Imo, terms like down scale or down market, while can be descriptive from an economic pov, tend to have some negative and insulting connotations.

I really hope this race is still competitive when the vote is held.  It will be great to see how all the various stereotypes that there are about different California regions play out.  I can't wait to watch the precinct reports from places like OC roll in.

Since I am not a member of the outreach program, and feel free to dump on Mittens when he deserves it, I feel no need to use euphemisms, rather than just be blunt. I have this feeling that most folks tend to take what I post here somewhat more seriously, precisely because I do that. I try to call them as I see them. I am not here to sell Mittens. He's not salable here anyway. Most posters here (not including moi)  loathe the man, and it is up front and personal. Thanks.

Fair play, perhaps I am alone in finding how some would view the terms as mildly offensive.  The use of said terms just smack of a lower orders type mentality.

I, of course, was trying to make a unsubtle connection between your terms and Mitt's inability to connect with many working class voters. I believe that Romney would be better off to take a blunt approach. His blatant pandering rings hollow- Cheesy grits, blue jeans and NASCAR etc etc.  His campaign may be realizing this with his "I won't apologize for being successful" line.  If he can craft it right, this would be much better for him politically.  While they may not be not wealthy, the down scale are equipped with a sense of recognizing the smell of bull$hit.  Romney has to sell the message the American dream of upward advancement and success.  This is a message that is deeply embedded and pumped into every American since childhood. While there are some hints of it, overall this country does not suffer from tall poppy syndrome. Mitt just doesn't have the chops to communicate the Reaganite message.

[LINCOLN REPUBLICAN]

If these numbers hold anywhere near this polling, Romney takes the nomination.

No way it goes to the convention.

No ifs, no ands, no buts, no excuses.

Let's all get behind Mitt and let's retake the White House for the sake of Americans now and for the sake of Americans yet unborn.

[I'm JewCon in name only.]

If these numbers hold anywhere near this polling, Romney takes the nomination.

No way it goes to the convention.

No ifs, no ands, no buts, no excuses.

Let's all get behind Mitt and let's retake the White House for the sake of Americans now and for the sake of Americans yet unborn.

Pessimistic Klecly is too pessimistic to respond.

[jmc247]

Can anyone explain how CA hands out delegates this time around. Say after Romney ad bombs the state he gets 54% of the overall vote. Approximately how many delegates would he pick up?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Can anyone explain how CA hands out delegates this time around. Say after Romney ad bombs the state he gets 54% of the overall vote. Approximately how many delegates would he pick up?

Depends on whether he carries every Congressional district. Ad bombing all of California would be a huge waste of money, BTW. In the 2000 general election, Bush outspent Gore something like $10 million to $0, and still lost big.

[redcommander]

Can anyone explain how CA hands out delegates this time around. Say after Romney ad bombs the state he gets 54% of the overall vote. Approximately how many delegates would he pick up?

Depends on whether he carries every Congressional district. Ad bombing all of California would be a huge waste of money, BTW. In the 2000 general election, Bush outspent Gore something like $10 million to $0, and still lost big.

Why did he waste so much on California when Clinton beat Dole by a healthy margin?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Can anyone explain how CA hands out delegates this time around. Say after Romney ad bombs the state he gets 54% of the overall vote. Approximately how many delegates would he pick up?

Depends on whether he carries every Congressional district. Ad bombing all of California would be a huge waste of money, BTW. In the 2000 general election, Bush outspent Gore something like $10 million to $0, and still lost big.

Why did he waste so much on California when Dole lost by a decent margin?

Arrogance, and he figured his brother would be a bit better at delivering Florida. Bush tended to lead big for most the election until the news about his DWI came out a few days before the election.

[jmc247]

Can anyone explain how CA hands out delegates this time around. Say after Romney ad bombs the state he gets 54% of the overall vote. Approximately how many delegates would he pick up?

Depends on whether he carries every Congressional district. Ad bombing all of California would be a huge waste of money, BTW. In the 2000 general election, Bush outspent Gore something like $10 million to $0, and still lost big.

The general election is a different beast entirely. But, the primaries lets just say CA voters even Republican aren't big on religious conservatives who want to take away your porn among other things. Four million in negative ads could hand Romney a majority at least in the primaries.