The Sierras have a lot of Mormons. Mittens should win there. Rick should take the Central Valley, but I question whether he will win anything in the inland empire. California is kind of light on down scale whites these days. Most have left the state.
Rick wins SBD county if he can hold Romney to below a 10 point margin I think. Yes, he will lose Rancho and Chino Hills, perhaps Redlands as well, but I don't see him doing well almost anywhere else. How do you think Yucaipa will vote? Not for Romney. Also, in that Pomona to SBD corridor there might not be a lot of whites, but the ones who live there tend to vote Republican and not the type who will be fond of Romney. In Riverside, CA-41 and 42 will be two districts that might vote for Rick. Another question might be how the few Hispanics who vote will swing. They could affect a CD or two. The new 46th in OC could be one such district.
Yes, I understand about the class thing in CA-41, and CA-35 (antelope valley and clarita hills and simi valley), and the Riverside CD, but how Evangelical are those folks, which has been a key variable? Mittens does OK with downmarket whites if not Evangelical. And these folks are not
that down market, just lower middle class. I don't think many Hispanics will be voting. How many are even registered Republicans? Also bear in mind that a lot of old whites are in those CD's, as a cheap retirement, or because they are too poor to retire elsewhere, or whatever. Mittens does well with olds - even poorer ones.
One thing I do know. Rick won't be carrying
my CD.
That was my thinking anyway, when I considered the issue of who had the edge in the CD's that you mention.
