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Author Topic: Missouri caucuses won't include a straw poll  (Read 8705 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: March 14, 2012, 05:44:27 am »
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Confirmed in this news story:

http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/missouri-s-gop-caucuses-are-coming-ready-or-not/article_b6ccc860-d87f-559a-8669-4c428af512a5.html

The caucus (held in most counties this coming Saturday, but one county already caucused last night) will just select delegates, and not involve any straw poll, so there'll be no real results to report this Saturday.  It'll be like the Hawaii caucus in 2008:

Quote
No 'straw poll" will be held to determine the preference of those in the room. Participants will not be asked to run to a corner of the gymnasium to indicate their favorite candidate. There may be few, if any, soapbox speeches.

The premise of the caucus is actually as mundane as it gets an organizational meeting.

"It's a regular meeting that takes place pursuant to Robert's Rules," said state GOP spokesman Jonathon Prouty. "The only business that is meant to take place is the election of delegates and the review of the platform."
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Effective campaigns will head into the caucuses with a chairman and slate of delegates already prepared. Compromise can play a role, if, say, no candidate has a majority in the room, and two camps collaborate to split delegates and shut out a third contender.

So yeah, presumably we'll get some kind of reports of which campaigns were more successful in getting their delegates elected, but there are no real "results" to report.  Just some names of delegates who may or may not have made any promises about which presidential candidate they're voting for.

Quote
Even if the process goes flawlessly for the state GOP, results will not be officially known until the congressional district meetings in April.

Despite this, all of the candidates except Gingrich have had or will have a campaign event in Missouri this week, to rally the troops.
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« Reply #1 on: March 14, 2012, 05:45:59 am »
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inb4 it's hijacked by Paultards
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #2 on: March 14, 2012, 06:18:01 am »
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Intrade just paused betting on their Missouri caucus betting market, apparently just realizing that there's no way to determine a winner.  Lol.  It's like when they had a betting market for 3rd place in Virginia, even though there were only two names on the ballot.
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« Reply #3 on: March 14, 2012, 09:46:04 am »
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safe Ron Paul!
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« Reply #4 on: March 14, 2012, 10:08:39 am »
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Then it is down to IL and PR.  I think Santorum has to win at least one to be credible as a real alternative to Romney.
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J. J.

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« Reply #5 on: March 14, 2012, 11:50:17 am »
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Then it is down to IL and PR.  I think Santorum has to win at least one to be credible as a real alternative to Romney.

Don't forget, Louisiana also has its primary on April 24 (the same date the Missouri Caucuses finish).


As for Missouri: the CD Conventions are on April 21 [24 delegates selected], and the State Convention is on June 2 [25 delegates selected].
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« Reply #6 on: March 14, 2012, 11:52:25 am »
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I think Santorum has to win at least one to be credible as a real alternative to Romney.

Newsflash, if he wins either one, he can take this outright.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7 on: March 14, 2012, 12:06:47 pm »
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I think Santorum has to win at least one to be credible as a real alternative to Romney.

Newsflash, if he wins either one, he can take this outright.

That is what I mean to being a real alternative (and why LA isn't in there).
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« Reply #8 on: March 14, 2012, 12:51:38 pm »
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Nice of the MO GOP to reduce the amount of embarrassment for their candidate after his 30 point loss last month. They could have had a real primary in March but they chose not to do it due to a Republican House/Republican Senate deadlock
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« Reply #9 on: March 14, 2012, 02:08:18 pm »
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Then it is down to IL and PR.  I think Santorum has to win at least one to be credible as a real alternative to Romney

Halfway through with 10 states? He's either going to be the nominee, or it is going to convention, as with Reagan.

The last time the nomination went this long without a winner was back in '08 with 19 states going to the challengers.

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« Reply #10 on: March 14, 2012, 10:34:10 pm »
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Quote


Halfway through with 10 states? He's either going to be the nominee, or it is going to convention, as with Reagan.

The last time the nomination went this long without a winner was back in '08 with 19 states going to the challengers.



Santorum, in order to be credible, has to close the delegate gap.  It has consistently increased in March, and, rather impressively.   AP shows it 204 for the month.  If Santorum loses the next two primaries, that gap will grow and it makes Romney look like he is unbeatable. 
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« Reply #11 on: March 15, 2012, 12:06:48 am »
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This is unfortunate news.
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« Reply #12 on: March 15, 2012, 12:27:51 am »
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This is unfortunate news.

Why is it either?

Santorum basically has two chances to start the reversal.  Romney has to stop him.
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(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
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« Reply #13 on: March 15, 2012, 12:28:57 am »
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Quote
Then it is down to IL and PR.  I think Santorum has to win at least one to be credible as a real alternative to Romney

Halfway through with 10 states? He's either going to be the nominee, or it is going to convention, as with Reagan.

The last time the nomination went this long without a winner was back in '08 with 19 states going to the challengers.



Technically there hasn't been a brokered convention since the DNC did away with its 2/3rds requirement in the 1940s. Now the 1924 DNC was epic.
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« Reply #14 on: March 15, 2012, 12:36:22 am »
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This is unfortunate news.

Why is it either?

Santorum basically has two chances to start the reversal.  Romney has to stop him.

Huh? As a political nerd, I just wanted something to watch on Saturday.
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #15 on: March 15, 2012, 12:52:40 am »
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This is unfortunate news.

Why is it either?

Santorum basically has two chances to start the reversal.  Romney has to stop him.

Huh? As a political nerd, I just wanted something to watch on Saturday.

I believe the rest of the Nevada county conventions are on Saturday, if it makes you feel any better...
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #16 on: March 15, 2012, 01:56:02 am »
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This is unfortunate news.

Why is it either?

Santorum basically has two chances to start the reversal.  Romney has to stop him.

Huh? As a political nerd, I just wanted something to watch on Saturday.

I believe the rest of the Nevada county conventions are on Saturday, if it makes you feel any better...

Not quite. Tongue
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« Reply #17 on: March 15, 2012, 01:58:55 am »
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then how will predictions work?!
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #18 on: March 15, 2012, 10:41:47 am »
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then how will predictions work?!

They won't. In fact, they'll probably be removed.
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« Reply #19 on: March 15, 2012, 10:55:51 am »
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So that means no predictions for Missouri at all? Dave should've just taken predictions on the beauty contest primary.
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J. J.
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« Reply #20 on: March 15, 2012, 11:14:30 am »
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This is unfortunate news.

Why is it either?

Santorum basically has two chances to start the reversal.  Romney has to stop him.

Huh? As a political nerd, I just wanted something to watch on Saturday.

Well, you'll want to watch if Mittens both wins and breaks 50%.  That will trigger WTA.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

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Ernest
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« Reply #21 on: March 15, 2012, 12:19:33 pm »
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So that means no predictions for Missouri at all? Dave should've just taken predictions on the beauty contest primary.

Dave did.  A few days before the beauty contest, Dave changed the date the Missouri predictions were locked in to that of the beauty constent becaus ehe learned there would be no results from the caucus.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #22 on: March 15, 2012, 03:04:49 pm »
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This is unfortunate news.

Why is it either?

Santorum basically has two chances to start the reversal.  Romney has to stop him.

Huh? As a political nerd, I just wanted something to watch on Saturday.

Well, you'll want to watch if Mittens both wins and breaks 50%.  That will trigger WTA.

What?
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Watch Dave being briefed by the mods.

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J. J.
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« Reply #23 on: March 15, 2012, 03:13:49 pm »
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This is unfortunate news.

Why is it either?

Santorum basically has two chances to start the reversal.  Romney has to stop him.

Huh? As a political nerd, I just wanted something to watch on Saturday.

Well, you'll want to watch if Mittens both wins and breaks 50%.  That will trigger WTA.

What?


In PR, on Sunday.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
Mr. Morden
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« Reply #24 on: March 15, 2012, 03:21:06 pm »
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This is unfortunate news.

Why is it either?

Santorum basically has two chances to start the reversal.  Romney has to stop him.

Huh? As a political nerd, I just wanted something to watch on Saturday.

Well, you'll want to watch if Mittens both wins and breaks 50%.  That will trigger WTA.

What?


In PR, on Sunday.

Eraserhead said "I just wanted something to watch on Saturday."
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My magnum opus is now complete.  Read the complete "The Adventures of Hobo Orgy Guy & Blondie" (now in paperback).

Watch Dave being briefed by the mods.

Being a moderator is basically like one giant party.  Except you're the one ruining the party and everyone hates you.
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