What is the strongest indicator of voting preference?

[All Along The Watchtower]

Is it race? Income? Marital status? Educational level? Religiosity? Region?

Let's look at income and education. The conventional wisdom is that higher income is positively correlated with voting Republican, but as it turns out, this is not always the case. Other factors come into play, and one that seems to be positively correlated with voting Democratic is higher educational attainment, especially once you get into people with professional and other post-graduate degrees-but it's not a particularly strong correlation at that level.

Additionally, there is a substantial gender gap in voting preferences, especially among the highly educated voters-that is, highly educated women are more Democratic  than less educated women, but highly educated men are not necessarily less Republican than less educated men. What's going on here?

Marital and family status, however, also plays a big role. Generally, I would suspect that families with children at home, with a male head of household and a stay-at-home mother would be more Republican than other types of families. Unmarried adults are more Democratic than married ones with kids, I suspect, as are married adults without kids.

Of course, race is a big divide as well, especially when you compare whites to non-whites. A majority of whites vote Republican, while a greater majority of non-whites vote Democratic-with black voters being the most Democratic in voting preference.

What about religiosity? Secular people are far more Democratic in preference than religious people, while evangelical and fundamentalist Christians, as well as certain Orthodox Jews, are heavily Republican.

Finally, region plays a big role as well. Not just geographic location, but also the strong urban-rural divide between Democrats and Republicans in recent times, with suburbs being more marginal these days.

So what would you say is the biggest indicator of voting preference in the US?

[tpfkaw]

Party identification.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

if you're white, married, a church goer, and read your bible at least once a week...you're probably very likely to vote GOP.

[dead0man]

and conversely, if you are black, married, a church goer and read your bible once a week, you probably vote for the Dems.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

and conversely, if you are black, married, a church goer and read your bible once a week, you probably vote for the Dems.

since 90% of blacks vote Dem, that's hardly a surprise

[freepcrusher]

usually it all comes down to a few questions you ask someone:

What is your race?
Anything other then white, then you're likely a democrat

If the answer is hispanic:
Are you a cuban? If not then you're likely democrat

If the answer is white:
Right off the bat you're a lean GOP constituency. Then you ask a few other questions

Are you jewish?
If yes, then you're likely democrat, you're more likely to vote republican

If the answer is yes then you ask:
Are you orthodox or reform?

If not jewish then you ask:
Are you straight or gay?
Again, if you're gay you're more likely to be democrat

If straight you then ask this:
How often do you go to church?
If the answer is seldom then you're more likely to be democrat

So it mostly comes down to race and religion. Economics is a category within certain ethnicities though.

[memphis]

and conversely, if you are black, married, a church goer and read your bible once a week, you probably vote for the Dems.

since 90% of blacks vote Dem, that's hardly a surprise

So it seems all of your other variables were unimportant.

[fezzyfestoon]

Susceptibility to marketing tactics?

[Mechaman]

Susceptibility to marketing tactics?

I would say mostly this.

Voting preferences ultimately come down to a keen sense of marketing.  This is pretty common throughout American history really.  I mean take for instance the 19th Century where you had the "100% Dye in the Wool American!" Grand Old Party and the "I Can't Believe It's Not Smug Elitism!" Democratic Party.
Republicans played up love of the military and of the fact that they all supported the Union and that ALL CONFEDERATES WERE DEMONCRATS OMG! to help them score election victory after election victory in the era following the Civil War.  The Democrats should have a lot to answer for damn it, after all they were the preferred party of the evil little slave owning traitors and they obviously have a closet hatred of America and love the dead Confederacy!  Also, the Americanism and patriotism of groups like the Irish were questioned in the wake of events like the New York City Draft riots and the trials and tribulations of William Tweed's Tammany Hall, thus endearing the Republican Party to the presence of Nativists who otherwise would've felt turned off by the party that freed the black man.  It was all too clear now, the Catholic was out to destroy American democracy with the power to buy votes, to corrupt the masses with alcohol, and to play second fiddle to the anarchistic Southerners who sought to "redeem" the country of Lincoln's accomplishments!  Thus, in an ironic twist of fate the men who destroyed slavery were the same men to embrace the spectre of Nativism, surely one of God's most hated forms of bigotry, to expand the electoral pool of those to oppose the Democratic agenda.
On the flip side, Democrats played up the image of an extremely arrogant and elitist rich WASP boy's club in the Republican Party to motivate their voter bases in both the North and the South.  To Southern white landowners the installation of Republican governments in the South were seen as either "carpetbagging" or worse yet all out invasion.  Democrats in these states, after a decade or so, were able to turn the tide on the GOP governments by playing on peoples' fears in those states that they were being ruled by despotic Republicans who hated state's rights and wanted a fully centralized government that would spit in the face of the Founding Fathers.  Meanwhile, up north machines like Tammany reached out to the immigrant masses, greatly harassed by Republican advocates and supporters, with a handful of cash for a handful O'Votes.  Paddy's cry for his dead son would be soothed, knowing that the rich bastards that sent little Kenny to die would be getting theirs while Tammany put a wad of cash in the pocket on his rear.  This is the story, of how the poor sons of Erin, Germania, and of eternally divided Poland and of others, victims of the great tradition of elitist prejudice and of White Anglo Saxon scorn, became the unlikely bedmates of those who defended the right to class men by property and those who believed in legality of murder by democracy (ie the lynch mob).
Today it is little different.  What with Democrats crying "RACIST!" at every discussion about immigration reform and Republicans shouting "UNAMERICAN!" at the top of their lungs at every debate about warrantless searches and torture that would turn the stomach of the Geneva Convention.
Truly a masterful use of marketing.  It's almost like the parties have been complementing each other with their strategies.

[krazen1211]

Nate Silver did a piece on this. The strongest identifier is being black.

[Torie]

Religiousity has overtaken SES, complicated by race.

[Ogre Mage]

Ideology.

[Bacon King]

Nate Silver did a piece on this. The strongest identifier is being black.

[greenforest32]

Ideology.

And what influences ideology?

http://www.gallup.com/poll/125021/mormons-conservative-major-religious-group.aspx

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Ideology.

And what influences ideology?

http://www.gallup.com/poll/125021/mormons-conservative-major-religious-group.aspx

This doesn't constitute a 'strong indicator' compared to some of the others we've seen in this thread, except maybe for Mormons. In all honesty the best we have among generally 'demographic' axes is race.

[opebo]

...read your bible at least once a week...

Why do you read it so often?  Bad memory?  I mean, I liked Catch-22, but I only read it maybe once or twice.

[Mechaman]

Ideology.

And what influences ideology?

http://www.gallup.com/poll/125021/mormons-conservative-major-religious-group.aspx

Jews more liberal than atheists?!

Wow.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Have you gotten a load of many atheist intellectuals on foreign and in some cases economic policy?

[Torie]

Ideology.

And what influences ideology?

http://www.gallup.com/poll/125021/mormons-conservative-major-religious-group.aspx

This doesn't constitute a 'strong indicator' compared to some of the others we've seen in this thread, except maybe for Mormons. In all honesty the best we have among generally 'demographic' axes is race.

It is less about the sect (putting aside the "outliers"), and more about how often you go to church or temple, if at all.

[You kip if you want to...]

Race and geography.

[greenforest32]

Ideology.

And what influences ideology?

http://www.gallup.com/poll/125021/mormons-conservative-major-religious-group.aspx

Jews more liberal than atheists?!

Wow.

It's not just atheists, it's "None/Atheist/Agnostic". I have a feeling the just atheist numbers would be a little different.

[opebo]

I think probably tailgating, fast walking, or the practice of calling people 'losers' (all of which indicate both a****e and Republican).

This is where 'tailgating' takes place, not at the stadium:

[Torie]

I think probably tailgating, fast walking, or the practice of calling people 'losers' (all of which indicate both a****e and Republican).

This is where 'tailgating' takes place, not at the stadium:

Pubs walk faster?  You may have a point about the latter two. High testosteroned men tend to be Pubs. However, I don't tailgate, or tolerate being tailgated (I get out of the lane). I am not here to win the Darwin award.

[memphis]

Dems have the contrasting pull of blacks and youth in their average walk speed. Would make an interesting study.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Nate Silver did a piece on this. The strongest identifier is being black.

I'm guessing "white" would be at the bottom of that list.