Michael Barone says
that redistricting is about a wash this cycle, because the Pubs gained one seat net or something. No doubt that is true.
But examine the two spreadsheet screen shots below. The shot I took is of the seats around the magic 218 House control mark. Notice that the PVI for the 218th seat for the Dems moved from 1.66% PVI Pub to 2.18% PVI Pub, a change of 52 basis points in the Pub direction. And when you look at the 219 seat, giving the Dems control by two seats, for that the PVI moves from 1.66% PVI Pub to 2.80% PVI Pub, a change of 1.14%. The process isn't quite done yet, and I am not sure the new numbers are entirely accurate, because I lifted that data from elsewhere (and I don't have any tenths data, so we get the same PVI number for bunches of seats, where they will vary a bit). Moreover, using but one partisan baseline across the nation has some issues in and of itself. Having said that, to me 1.14% is
a big deal, and 52 basis points in this neighborhood is not chump change in any event. What do you think?
If anyone wants my data, and is willing to fly speck it for errors in particular, I would be happy to email it to them. I consider these sorts of things to be collaborate efforts.