Who would win contested convention?

[BigSkyBob]

The Santorum and Gingrich campaigns admit their guys will likely not get a majority of delegates, but they can keep Mitt from getting 1144 too. Their assumption is that a contested convention will result in one of them being nominated.

So lets assume a likely scenario where Romney only has a plurality. Also that even if all the unpledged delegates swung to Romney, it wouldn't be enough for a majority. Something like this 1st ballot delegate breakdown....

Romney 47%
Santorum: 41%
Gingrich: 6%
Paul: 6%

So...who does the convention nominate in this kind of scenario?


...and how doe they do it? (cutting a deal? defections by opponents delegates?)

Paul releases his delegates to Romney. Team Romney does whatever it takes to make it happen (even if it means giving Rand Paul the veep slot)

This assumes the Paul delegates would do as told. The Paul delegates didn't go through the process to cut a deal to have Rand as VP. They went through the process to smoke dope in public, and host of other such "causes." If Romney doesn't come through for the dope-smokers then they might revolt.

R3volution <==> Establishment

[Torie]

The same man who would win an uncontested convention.

[Likely Voter]

So some states should count more than others? Is that the logic?

Well in that case, the Romney again should come out on top because he keeps winning in the swing states like OH and FL. And his win in traditional dem states shows he has more appeal for a general election.

Sorry.  But the idea that primary results between the candidates of one party can be taken as indicative of how they will perform in the general election is not proven, as Senators-unelect Miller, Fiorina, Buck, O'Donnel, and Angle can all point out.

 I was only making the straw man argument of how two can play the game of "my states are better than your states"...you cut off my next line pointing out how the whole notion is sillly.

so yes i agree.


In the end I think that whoever goes in with a plurality will win. I just dont see how Santorum can make the case that his votes are more significant. It will get trickier if Santorum+Gingrich>Romney and if Gingrich endorses Santorum.

But in the end I think that Santorum has to make his goal to not just force a contested convention but to also come close to matching Romney's pledged delegates. And that is a much harder thing to do.

[Former Moderate]

Romney would easily win a contested convention, especially one where he already has 47% of delegates. The entire GOP establishment would mobilize the troops for him, making whatever deals necessary.

[IDS Speaker Ben Kenobi]

Really? Because Romney is polling better against Obama than Reagan polled against Carter in March 1980. Has the objective changed from being "defeat Obama"?

Here's another fact, only one person has ever won the presidency losing > 10 states along the way in the primary, and he only did so by defeating another person who also lost > 10 states.

Face it, Romney's going to get blown out in the general.

[Politico]

How many people outside of Virginia even know who he is?

And for that matter how many people base their vote primarily on the proximity of the VP candidate's state to their home state, or who the VP candidate is at all?

Trust me, being the only southerner out of the four candidates for president/vice-president is all it is going to take.

1992: Bill Clinton and Al Gore
1996: Bill Clinton and Al Gore
2000: Al Gore
2004: John Edwards

Your argument is invalid.

The obvious difference between these southerners and McDonnell: Bob is a Republican.

[IDS Speaker Ben Kenobi]

That's an interesting trivia question.

Who was the only Southern vice president republican nominee?

[Blazinator]

However, if Gingrich stays in the race and hasn't endorsed Santorum I think it's a moot point, because Romney will almost certainly secure a majority unless Rick pulls off some major wins in IL and WI here in the next few weeks.

Rick will win WI and it's about 50/50 for IL.

[Blazinator]

Here's another fact, only one person has ever won the presidency losing > 10 states along the way in the primary, and he only did so by defeating another person who also lost > 10 states.

Face it, Romney's going to get blown out in the general.

Not if he's not the nominee.

[Tidewater_Wave]

Chris Christie

[Likely Voter]

Here's another fact, only one person has ever won the presidency losing > 10 states along the way in the primary, and he only did so by defeating another person who also lost > 10 states.

Here are some real facts: Well there have only been 10 elections in the modern primary era. Yet in that time 3 nominees with 11+ loses have won.

And given that Santorum will almost certainly have more losses than Romney, what is your point?

[nhmagic]

I would rather that Palin enter at the convention and be our nominee than the lot we have.  She's the only one that discusses the real issues that can defeat the president:

Gas Prices
Food Prices (which is an issue none of our candidates have even mentioned)
Hatred of the Fed
Obamacare
Jobs

Combined with the enthusiasm she produces, she would be an excellent candidate.  For example, I know two mainline democrats who voted for Obama in 2008.  They said that if Palin ran, they would vote for her.  Just sayin...

[Bacon King]

Mitt Romney: "Hey, Ron Paul, want to write the platform? I'll let you put everything you want in there except for that whacky foreign policy and drug stuff! And you can speak in front of the convention about it, too! And I'll tell you what. All you have to do is get your delegates to vote for me. And hey, if Christie still thinks he's too fat to campaign, I promise you that I'll even think about putting Rand on the ticket with me!"

*Ron Paul giggles like a school girl and jumps with joy*



(Seriously, that's probably all it would take for Romney to win the nomination if he's on the cusp of a majority heading into Tampa.)

[© Tweed the Younger]

you're assuming the Paultarded ninjas would bow that easily

[Bacon King]

you're assuming the Paultarded ninjas would bow that easily

It ultimately depends on how many of them actually make it through the various caucuses and state conventions to get to Tampa. If they're few in number, they'll be easy to corral and could probably be talked in to accepting Platform Committee spots as a compromise if they see they're outnumbered badly. You're right though that all bets are off if a ton of them do manage to make it.

[IDS Speaker Ben Kenobi]

Here are some real facts: Well there have only been 10 elections in the modern primary era. Yet in that time 3 nominees with 11+ loses have won.

And given that Santorum will almost certainly have more losses than Romney, what is your point?

That Romney is a terrible candidate?

[useful idiot]

How many people outside of Virginia even know who he is?

And for that matter how many people base their vote primarily on the proximity of the VP candidate's state to their home state, or who the VP candidate is at all?

Trust me, being the only southerner out of the four candidates for president/vice-president is all it is going to take.

1992: Bill Clinton and Al Gore
1996: Bill Clinton and Al Gore
2000: Al Gore
2004: John Edwards

Your argument is invalid.

The obvious difference between these southerners and McDonnell: Bob is a Republican.

He's also not really a Southerner. He's a Catholic who was born in Philadelphia and grew up in the DC burbs. And his popularity within VA is based on his moderation, if anything. Not sure if that's what Romney wants...

[a Person]

How many people outside of Virginia even know who he is?

And for that matter how many people base their vote primarily on the proximity of the VP candidate's state to their home state, or who the VP candidate is at all?

Trust me, being the only southerner out of the four candidates for president/vice-president is all it is going to take.

1992: Bill Clinton and Al Gore
1996: Bill Clinton and Al Gore
2000: Al Gore
2004: John Edwards

Your argument is invalid.

The obvious difference between these southerners and McDonnell: Bob is a Republican.

Your argument was that being the only Southerner on the ticket would win the South over.

That's an interesting trivia question.

Who was the only Southern vice president republican nominee?

I assume Texas doesn't count as the South (GHWBush/Cheney), right?

I would rather that Palin enter at the convention and be our nominee than the lot we have.  She's the only one that discusses the real issues that can defeat the president:

Gas Prices
Food Prices (which is an issue none of our candidates have even mentioned)
Hatred of the Fed
Obamacare
Jobs

Combined with the enthusiasm she produces, she would be an excellent candidate.  For example, I know two mainline democrats who voted for Obama in 2008.  They said that if Palin ran, they would vote for her.  Just sayin...

From a poll of SC Republicans:

Q17 Would you be more or less likely to vote for a
candidate endorsed by Sarah Palin, or would it
not make a difference?
More likely....................................................... 17%
Less likely ....................................................... 38%
Wouldn't make a difference............................. 40%
Not sure .......................................................... 5%

(link)

Sarah Palin is totally unelectable.